Greetings Rumblers!
It's a good week of football with some solid matchups all over. Getting anxious to get this weeks game over with so the team can get into the Bye Week and hopefully rest up and get healthy. This will be a tough matchup for an injury riddled Bills squad to face on offense. Will need Brady to get creative and find ways to get our depth WR guys open and involved in plays. Josh needs to make smart decisions and cut back on the bad throws. The OL needs to limit the penalties. This is a game that has to be played clean and executed well, each team is capable of capitalizing off the others mistakes.
The defense will be tasked with stopping a KC run game that likes to attack the interior behind a solid iOL. While they do that they will also need to be able to bring pressure on Mahomes, keep him from breaking the pocket, and limit Kelce's ability to make plays. It's a tall order and like with the offense will need meticulous execution and to limit penalties and mistakes.
It's interesting to see the Bills rank in the top 5 in 6 of these metrics right now. Of the other three, they rank 9,10,11 which is quite impressive really. Also let me point out DET, who ranks no worse than 7th in any of these metrics and in the top 5 in 6 of them. All the others have at least one ranking between average and bad.
For the offensive metrics, we see the Bills are just on the outside of the bottom 5 for drops, after starting the season so well, it's a bit of a disappointment to me to see how they've returned to it being an issue. The bad throws aren't helping matters either. Between the two, it's impressive the passing game has been so good, but just imagine for a moment, how much better it could be if they could turn these two metrics around in the back half of the year here.
The OL, besides penalties, has been quite good at keeping the pressure of Josh and pulling their weight in the run game. They just need to knock off those penalties (looking at you Dawkins and Brown).
On the defensive side of the ball, not much to write home about. They have been living off turnovers this season to some extent. The pass rush is average, the run defense is average. They are inconsistent and it shows, making big plays one moment and giving up big plays the next. One thing they are surprisingly good at (though the eyes might argue it) is tackling. They have the 3rd lowest missed tackle rate going into this weekend. Even more interesting, the Pats and Fins are 1st and 2nd while the Jets are in the bottom 5.
Turning to the Bills specifically, I added some more color shading to highlight the better and worse numbers.
Cook's, Shakir's, and Kincaid's catch rates and passer ratings dropped quite a bit this week from last. That's a little disappointing to see from the three guys we expect to be the go to guys. Kincaid to me has been a bit of disappointment in the drops this year since he was touted as having such good hands during the draft. Hopefully they will get a chance to improve this weekend with a big game in front of the home crowd.
We already know the OL needs to cut back on the penalties but dang Dawkins and Brown are in a league of their own right now. Both double digits on the penalty counts.
Pretty straight forward on the play counts.
I made the cut-off here for the shading 0.069 as that seems a reasonable number at the moment to show the top scores. Groot and Miller are just over it at 0.08 each and Solomon still has the best numbers. QJ and JP had good production for their limited time so far.
Numbers support the eye test here for the most part. This is a good secondary and as I've said above, they have lived off turnovers a bit, which isn't bad. I'd like to see Rasul get his passer rating down below 100.0 again and I think Rapp's and Hamlin's numbers are about where I should expect them for their skills.
That will wrap up Week 10. I couldn't figure out how to embed an iframe in the post body to display the spreadsheets, but I think I'll keep with publishing just the main sheets instead of linking to the entire files. Hopefully this way is easier for everyone else to view them.
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