PECOTA Week: A Depth Chart Playing Time Primer 2024B
2/05Image credit: © Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
As a wise man once said, "all projections are playing time projections."
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Download the 2024 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance
PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.
Download the 2024 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA Release Notes
March 28, 2024
As a wise man once said, "all projections are playing time projections."
The 2024 season is inching closer, and some players will take the opportunity to reach their highest level yet.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightForecasting improvements on 2023 for these arms.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightGood news about the Reds' 80th-percentile projection. Bad news about everyone else's 80th-percentile projection.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightIt's nothing personal.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightIt’s nothing personal. Well, actually, it is. But let’s say it’s not.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightContrary to popular belief, PECOTA doesn't hate everyone... even some of the folks who hate it.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightThink of it as bulletin board material, except a lot of these teams need far more than that.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightThis year, the free agent groundhog saw its shadow.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightFor all the teams that are procrastinating on finishing their rosters ahead of spring training.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightHey, a 0.1% chance means it could happen.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightA look at how our projection system has reacted to some of this year's rookie crop.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightWhy PECOTA matters, whether it's February or July.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightPECOTA makes its money betting on regression. Detroit will try to escape its pull.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightOn PECOTA, billionaires failing, Jordan, and then the actual news of the week.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightPitching is about disrupting timing, but it's also about disguising your flaws forever.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAll week you've read about the best and the worst. Now it's time for the most.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightRemember, kids: high projected BABIPs are earned, not given.
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