Sacrifice Flies

Through 30 June of this season, the Diamondbacks lead the Majors in sacrifice flies per Baseball Savant. Yes, the Diamondbacks were number one with 32 sacrifice flies! Second place were the Giants and Yankees with 30.

Which Diamondbacks hit the most sacrifice flies? Ketel Marte had 7 Sacrifice flies. Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez had 5 each sacrifice flies.

Will Ketel Marte break the Diamondbacks’ record for most sacrifice flies in one season? Two former Diamondbacks are tied at 12 sacrifice flies in a season: Nick Ahmed in 2019 and Luis Gonzalez in 2000. At Ketel Marte’s current pace, he would end the season with 13 or 14 sacrifice flies, a new Diamondbacks’ record!

Will Ketel Marte break the Majors’ record for most sacrifice flies in one season? Gil Hodges has the record in the Majors with 19 sacrifice flies in one season. But Ketel Marte is a switch hitter. For switch hitters, the record in the Majors is 17 sacrifice flies in one season. But Ketel Marte is in the NL. For switch hitters in the NL, the record in the Majors is 15 sacrifice flies in one season. One or two additional sacrifice fly would not be much of a stretch! Go for it Marte! (Records from Baseball Almanac.)

What impacted the pace of sacrifice flies? Park Factors indicate two things: the extent to which a ballpark favors batters or pitchers, and the extent to which a ballpark favors specific types of hits. Let’s look at the latter impact in the following table for Chase Field.

Chase Park Factors 2023. Data from FanGraphs.

The table shows that Chase Field boosts singles/doubles/triples and suppresses home runs, especially for right-handed batters such as Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez. (Right hand batters have a Park Factor for home runs of 90%). My view is that means that batted ball events that would have been homers in other ballparks were instead sacrifice flies. Supporting my view were the 5 sacrifice flies at Chase Field with exit velocities over 100 MPH.

As a side note, there is some indication that perhaps Diamondbacks’ home run hitters are outperforming the Chase Field Park Factor. Through 30 June, 48.8% of their home runs were at Chase while 51% of their games were at Chase.

Did sacrifice flies impact the games? Let’s look at Ketel Marte’s 7 sacrifice flies because he had the most.

In five games, the Diamondbacks were ahead and in each game his sacrifice flies increased their lead by one run. However, the change in win probability (WPA) ranged from negative 0.5% to positive 2%. That sacrifice fly with a negative WPA was in the fourth inning of the 16 June game. Marte made the first out of the inning and increased the lead to 5-1, and yet WPA was negative. Even adding positive 2% WPA seemed like a small impact. Perhaps sacrifice flies can be thought of as taking a sure thing instead of rolling the dice hoping for a bigger increase in WPA.

In one game, Marte hit two sacrifice flies, when the Diamondbacks were behind 0-5, and when the Diamondbacks were behind 1-5. His impact on WPA was 3% (14% to 17%), and then 5% (15% to 20%). My view of his first sacrifice fly was that when behind by 5 runs, it would have been better to roll the dice than to hit a sacrifice fly. My view of the second sacrifice fly was that Marte tried to get a hit or a homer, but instead got a sacrifice fly. Supporting that view is that his exit velocity was 105 MPH and his launch angle was 16% (which were consistent with a hit attempt).

What were the exit velocities of the sacrifice flies? The following graph shows the Diamondbacks’ exit velocities.

Sacrifice Flies. 2024 season through 30 June. Data from Baseball Savant.

The graph shows that 53% of the sacrifice flies had exit velocities between 90 and 100 MPH. What surprised me is that seven sacrifice flies had exit velocities between 71.6 and 87.4 MPH. That is less velocity than many pitches sent toward the plate.

Summary.

In games through 30 June, the Diamondbacks lead the Majors in sacrifice flies.

Ketel Marte had the most sacrifice flies (7). He is on pace to break the Diamondbacks record for the most sacrifice flies in one season (12). He could possibly break the record for the most sacrifice flies in one season by a switch hitter in the NL (15).

When the Diamondbacks were ahead, Ketel Marte’s sacrifice flies had an impact on win probability that ranged from negative 0.5% to positive 2%. The impacts were relatively small. In one game when the Diamondbacks were behind by 4 or 5 runs, the impacts of his two sacrifce flies were larger, but the Diamondbacks remained very likely to lose the game. One of those sacrifce flies was likely a failed attempt to hit a home run.

Chase Field suppresses homers. Five of the Diamondbacks’ sacrifice flies with exit velocities over 100 MPH might have been homers in another venue.

The Diamondbacks had 7 sacrifice flies with exit velocities between 71.6 and 87.4 MPH. The surprisingly low exit velocities were lower than many pitches sent towards the plate.