Discussing the MLB Draft

You can ask pretty much anyone that knows me and there is a good chance that they will tell you that the only thing I talk about is baseball, but the Diamondbacks in particular. However, I do find myself not being as familiar with the MLB Draft as I probably should be, so I reached out to Spencer O’Gara to see if he would be willing to sit down with me and help educate myself (along with any other fans like myself) a little bit more on the ins and outs of the MLB Draft, especially since it is fast approaching us here in the coming weeks (July 14 @ 2pm MST).

We opened up with how MLB Draft has gone through many different changes over the years, from 40 rounds down to about 20 to the different kind of compensatory and balance picks and even the still new MLB Draft Lottery, which is MLB’s attempt to discourage tanking amongst the bottom tier teams (look at how the Astros and Orioles were able to stockpile high draft picks multiple years in a row). There was one specific rule that Spencer brought up that stuck out to me, and that was the limit to how many times a team can actually be eligible for a lottery pick spot.

Spencer: “Small market teams like the Diamondbacks can pick in the lottery two years in a row, after that they cannot. They do not qualify for it. A large market team, like say the Dodgers, should they ever miss the playoffs again, would only be allowed to pick in the lottery once before they get pushed out of it (for one year). If you are pushed out, you can’t pick higher than 10th the following year.” (timestamp 19:45-21:00)

With the basics of the MLB Draft and Lottery Pick explained and out of the way, I asked Spencer if he could explain the financial side of the MLB Draft. Some of the topics he touched on were the “Bonus Pool” and how teams can strategize with that money, what happens when a team over spends for their bonus pool allotment, and how rounds (especially in rounds 11-20) have different values assigned to them.

Spencer: “You can take a guy that you know will sign for less than your $3 Million that you have with the first pick, say he only signs for $1 Million. Then you have $2 Million you can spread out and spend how you would like.” (27:20-28:45) There are some safeguards against getting too funny with the money attached the Draft Combine and submitting a physical though.

While Spencer was breaking down the MLB Draft basics, he mentioned that this year’s draft is a bit weaker when compared to previous years’ classes (2022 and 2023 were very stacked), and since I have only heard of the popular names like Jac Caglianone from Florida, Cam Caminiti from a local AZ high school or even the man from a land down under that hits tanks in Travis Bazzana. He explained to me that the reason why this class is “weaker” basically boils down to most players not really separating themselves from the pack.

Spencer: “It’s mostly just a group of players that are all flawed in some fashion, that don’t really stand out on top of one another. It’s kind of just a mob of guys who are all very talented, far more talented that I am ever going to be, but no one is really standing out.” (35:22-37:30)

We then moved on to talk about a few names that Spencer had listed on his excellent spreadsheets (no seriously, go check them out as this is S-Tier work - his 2024 Mock Draft Compilation and his D’Backs Draft Value) that he could see the Diamondbacks having an eye on when its FINALLY their time to pick at #29. There were a few names that were thrown around such as Slade Caldwell (OF, if he slides down the board to us), Walker Janek (C), Kellon Lindsey (SS) and plenty of other High School and College names. He went into a little bit of detail as to why he hopes the team stays away from Janek, mostly due to this franchise’s lack of success at drafting any Catcher in the upper rounds. I would agree with him on this one, but that’s just because I don’t want a Stryker Trahan 2.0 so that might be the reason for the bias.

Spencer: “I personally am hesitant to take a Catcher in the 1st Round. It’s a very, very necessary position; no team is deep in Catcher...the Diamondbacks have never had success with an upper round Catcher. Your best is maybe Chris Snyder?” (44:25-45:00)

After we had an idea on potential future Diamondbacks and who they could go after, we switched focus to the Director of the Draft in Ian Rebhan (2022-present) and the shoes he has to fill when it comes to draft success. While Rebhan’s tenure as Director of the Draft is too small of a sample size to truly compare to Deric Ladnier’s work (Director from 2015-2021), he does have a lot of work to do if he wants to show that he can have a better draft resume than Ladnier.

Spencer: “I don’t know that I think he’s gonna end up as some top Scouting Director in the way that I think Deric Ladnier is. Ladnier’s picks just, his drafts are fantastic...you’ve got Corbin Carroll, you’ve got Drey Jameson when he comes back. You got Ryne Nelson, you got Slade Cecconi, you got Brandon Pfaadt...I don’t know that Rebhan will have that lasting effect.” (54:40-1:03:00)

Though Rebhan’s draft resume is still quite small, that doesn’t there aren’t some REALLY exciting players with superstar potential that he pulled the trigger on. The name that most of us would probably think of first is Druw Jones, and even Spencer named him first, but that wasn’t the name he actually had in mind when it came to who fans should keep tabs on during their MiLB career.

Spencer: “I think the name to pay attention to for fans of the team that wanna see what’s gonna happen in 2024, 2025, and 2026, look for Landon Sims...I think he’s finally putting it all together after having Tommy John in his draft year and he will fly through the system. You could be seeing him getting his chance to prove that he deserves late innings [in] April of next year if everything goes perfectly for him.” (1:13:30-1:14:45)

We finished off the draft conversation with a little bit of a trip down nostalgia lane. Looking at the excel doc, there were countless times that had audibly going “Huh??” or “Oh my gosh I remember that guy!” Whether it was names that I personally didn’t even realize we drafted like Rusty Ryal, Ross Ohlendorf (such a ballplayer name) and even slugger Chris Carter or guys such as Doug Slaten, Micah Owings and Connor Jackson that just bring that nostalgia feeling. While I was going down memory road and being shocked by some of the names, Spencer had a great point that we might remember some names on this doc and not really good reasons but more of a “what if?”

Spencer: “I think in the long run, for a lot of fans and history that we drafted Max Scherzer, that we drafted Trevor Bauer, that we drafted Wade Miley, Dan Uggla, Keon Broxton. Names like that made their impacts but them on different teams. Obviously Scherzer stands out; he’s the one we let get away...Wade Mily, that’s just the one where I’m like ‘I can’t believe people are going to forget we drafted him’” (1:19:56-1:21:55)

Then as one final guy punch, we both had to remind ourselves that the 2009 MLB Draft was the same year that they took Bobby Borchering and AJ Pollock back-to-back in the first round at picks 16 and 17. The guy punch wasn’t that Borchering didn’t make it to the MLB at all, nor the fact that AJ Pollock burned his bridge to the fanbase when he made his comments after leaving for LA.

The REAL gut punch was that a certain outfielder from a High School in NJ that goes by the name Mike Trout (you may have heard of him a few times) was taken that same round, only 8 picks later at #25 overall. This was mostly all in just fun, as we should all know by now, you can’t guarantee anything in a draft. We could have drafted Mike Trout and he could have had the same career as Bobby Borchering, sometimes the baseball gods just like to be cruel I guess.

Spencer: “Could you imagine though? What if at 16 we take AJ Pollock, and we just get rid of Borchering, nobody wants him, take Pollock. [Then at] 17 we take Mike Trout, and then however many picks later, 246, we get Paul Goldschmidt in the same draft? That would be insane!” (1:22:00-1:23:55)

Once we wrapped up the MLB Draft discussions and Spencer filled us in on what he coming up here on AZSnakePit, I wanted to get Spencer’s opinion on this team’s performance up to this point in the season.

Spencer: “I’d label it a ‘U’ for unfortunate. I was worried about normal regression, because we had unbelievable heath, we had phenomenal rookie seasons...so I was worried about that but never in a million years did I think we would lose 80% of the rotation, basically before the first month of baseball was over.” (1:24:50-1:27:05)

Then for one last question, I was curious how he would personally like the team to approach the trade deadline and what moves he would make.

Spencer: “I am a huge proponent of, if we have to punt on 2024 so that 2025 can be epic, do it. It sucks if that means we are going to watch Christian Walker get traded. It’s unfortunate if that means we have to watch a prospect go with Eugenio Suarez to get his money off the books...that is a secondary goal; my goal is get our healthy guys back and go on a run. I don’t care if we’re the 3rd Wild Card again, get us in the postseason. be there back-to-back for the first time since 23 years ago.” (1:27:05-1:30:05)

This entire discussion with Spencer has been a very informative one for myself and it has really sparked an interest in me to go and get more into not only the MLB Draft, but to start to watch more NCAA baseball and get to know some of these names before they are these superstars in the MLB.

I wanna give another huge thank you to Spencer (SpencerO’Gara) for joining me for this sit down, his excel spreadsheets are truly a sight to behold for any Diamondbacks fan that is into that kind of stuff!