Introduction

Earlier this week Kristopher Knox at B/R predicted 6 NFL trends 5 years from now. Here’s a little push back from me on those predictions as well as some (easily criticizable) predictions of my own.

1. Increased run%: Knox notes that

1.1. running is down slightly in the last few years (57.5%)

1.2. 5 of the bottoms 7 teams in pass rate made the playoffs last year: BAL, BUF, PHI, PIT, and SF

1.3. running counters the move toward nickel defense and smaller, faster LBs

1.4. several top college programs are run-heavy: UGA, BAMA, MICH.

Here’s some push-back from me on why those 5 teams are more the exception than the rule:

· Those 5 playoff teams are all hiding limited passers

· BAL and PIT are also attempting to make up for limited pass-catchers

· 4 of those teams are showcasing exceptional runners: reigning OPOY CMC, 2-time MVP Lamar, fantasy stud Josh Allen, and one-year wonder Jalen Hurts.

· All 5 of those teams have top-notch defenses where using the clock and playing it safe are more important than lighting up the scoreboard.

Here’s some more pushback based on trends I’m seeing:

· The best college programs (and camps and trainers) are producing more passing-capable QBs and pass-catching WRs, TEs and RBs: Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, UGA, Washington, Texas, etc.

· The league will continue to implement rules to increase scoring, make the game "safer", and encourage more passing

· Analytics continues to show that passing is "more efficient" than running in the aggregate so teams that are pass-happy (ie. Andy Reid’s Chiefs) have an advantage.

· The best defenses have the capability to slow the run enough to make it difficult to beat them with a run-heavy game plan.

My prediction: 5 years from now passing will be up across the league with a few teams finding ways to win despite limited passing capabilities by (relatively) efficient running games, defense, and special teams.

2. Increased prominence of RBs and FBs: Knox argues

2.1. A bunch of free agent RBs got deals early in free agency: Saquon, King Henry, Pollard, and Swift

2.2. Gibbs and Bijan were drafted early last year and did well.

2.3. [I add: CMC got more money.]

2.4. Versatile RBs create mismatches by being able to run or catch.

Here’s some pushback from me:

· With the exception of King Henry who is a generational power back, the other RBs mentioned get their value from their "dual-threat" capabilities. Their value is not in their running but in their versatility as "weapons." The same is true of FBs like Kyle J in SF.

Here’s where I see the trends going:

· There will be a greater emphasis on being an offensive weapon than playing a particular position, closer to the current NBA: RBs who can catch, WRs who can take a handoff, TEs who can catch and block.

· More skill-position players who can pitch for laterals or throw for (what we now call) "trick plays."

· Analytics showing that OL matters more than RB means more money will go to OL and less to RB.

· General trend away from running means less money will go to pure runners, though more might go to "versatile weapon" RBs like CMC.

· Short career span of RBs will get even shorter with NIL money in college so even fewer RBs will see a 2nd pro contract.

· These trends will lead many of the best athletes to become WRs rather than RBs.

My prediction: RBs and FBs as pure running threats will mostly be limited to rookie contracts, BUT "offensive weapons" who can run, catch, block, and (maybe) throw will become incredibly valuable.

3. More tight offensive formations: Knox points out

3.1. Tight formations are a staple of McVay/Shanahan system.

3.2. McVay/Shanahan coaches are rapidly spreading throughout the league, particularly Slowik’s success with CJ Stroud last year.

3.3. Tight formations threaten run without play action because WRs and split TEs can block

3.4. Tight formations give more room to WRs by taking them away from the boundary

Here’s some pushback from me:

· Tight formations also bring more defenders closer to the point of attack

· The real value of tight formations is in forcing defenders to have to think about both the run and the pass by disguising the offense’s intentions. Therefore, it’s value is similar to play-action passes, RPOs, shifts, screens, flea flickers (when are those going to make an NFL comeback?), and pre-snap motion.

· It is also similar to various large personnel groupings: 12, 13, 21, 22 where you have multiple RBs and/or multiple TEs.

Here’s the general trend I’m seeing:

· While favoring the pass, teams will try to disguise their intentions as much as possible.

· This will force defensive schemes and players into choices that the offense will be able to exploit either on that play or in the future.

· Intelligence and reading the play will be more important than ever amongst defensive players.

My predictions

· In 5 years, offenses will increase their strategies for disguising their intentions.

· Defensive players will be much more adept at diagnosing an offense’s intentions pre- and post-snap.

· Defensive schemes will be much more versatile either by employing more tweeners who can handle both the run and the pass or by employing more specialists to neutralize either one like Belichick’s 2-4-5.

4. More Zone Coverage: Knox points out:

4.1. 2 of the top defenses last year, the Browns and Chiefs, used lots of man coverage BUT…

4.2. there will be more scrambling QBs,

4.3. the run% will increase,

4.4. college DBs aren’t learning man techniques like press and trail.

I answer that:

· NIL means DBs will stay in college longer and perhaps learn more man techniques before going pro.

· Man coverage means tighter throwing windows in a league where the majority of the plays are passes… and I think this number is more likely to go up than down overall in 5 years.

· Press man in particular will be employed to throw receivers off their routes and disrupt the timing of plays.

· Young DBs will be forced to spend more time in personal and small group training outside of team activities to learn man technique

· The best defensive teams will give young DBs more time to learn man techniques after they’ve been drafted.

· This plus NIL means DBs will have shorter NFL careers.

My predictions

· Press man like that employed by the Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo is the wave of the future for top NFL defenses.

· Guys like Dave Merritt will be much more coveted for their role in forming young DBs.

5. QB Market re-set:

5.1. Knox is more nuanced here noting that the top of the QB market will hit $70M, but that good QBs will no longer receive huge money contracts.

5.2. He also things that there will be more high-end backups who will receive more money, especially if the season continues to get longer and injuries thus more common.

I answer that:

· Many NFL teams have a classic agency problem when it comes to their GMs. The decision-makers don’t suffer the consequences of their bad decisions. As such GMs will continue to overpay good QBs so that their team can "be competitive" without any realistic chance of winning a championship.

· That means the rich will get richer as teams with elite QBs will be "underpaying" them according to the inflated market created by self-serving GMs who are trying to keep their jobs by keeping their teams "relevant" in the short-term.

· I do not see how the league or the owners can stop GMs from repeating this blunder. And if I’m right, there will be a few teams at the top with elite QBs, a few teams who make runs with good/elite QBs on rookie deals, and then everybody else.

My prediction: Many GMs will continue to overpay "good" QBs because short-term their job depends on winning at least some football games and keeping their fans and owners happy at the expense of building a championship-caliber roster.

6. Good WRs won’t get re-signed by the teams that drafted them.

6.1. Yes, the WR market is out of control with Justin Jefferson now the highest paid non-QB at $35M per year

6.2. Knox sees teams refusing to pay their drafted talent and others stepping in to pay them.

6.3. Only elite WRs will get 2nd contracts with their original teams.

6.4. Teams will let merely good WRs play out their rookie contract and perhaps franchise tag them before letting them move on to a new team.

6.5. They will replace those WRs with pro-ready rookies they draft.

I answer that:

· If every team is doing this, then why would any GM overpay for someone else’s good WRs?

· WR is the hardest position to draft with 75% of 1st rounders busting.

· While there are more pro-ready WRs coming out of college, most teams don’t know how to identify or develop them except out of pure dumb luck: Exhibit A is Puka Nacua drafted in the 5th round last year.

· Most GMs would rather overpay for the security of having a good WR than try to find a new WR every 3-4 years in the draft.

What I see is:

· WRs are not as important to teams winning as they’re being paid.

· They are the most dependent position in all of football.

· This is a case of GMs making bad decisions.

· Some of that is impacted by many WRs huge egos.

· It is further exacerbated by media attention, fantasy football, and gambling.

· Smart GMs are NOT going to overpay WRs. Dumb GMs ARE, and there are plenty of those.

My predictions:

· Dumb GMs are going to continue to inflate the WR market.

· Smart GMs are going to find bargains among mid-level WRs, the draft, and pass-catching TEs and RBs. They will invest those saved dollars in the trenches which are more important to winning.

· Dumb GM teams will lose with flash. Smart GM teams will dominate with substance.

Conclusion

Here in KC, we’re lucky to have Brett Veach. He has refused to overpay on a WR since the Sammy Watkins contract. The Chiefs are the trend, or at least the trend that wins:

· Elite QB PM2 leading a pass-heavy attack

· Elite middle-of-the-field pass catcher Travis "the ‘Stache" Kelce

· Elite DB Coach Dave Merritt who runs a man-heavy scheme predicated on press-man coverage

· Smart defensive players who can quickly diagnose run/pass like Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton, Justin Reid, and Trent McDuffie.

· Pouring money and draft picks into an elite pass-blocking OL & elite interior pass-rusher CJ95

· Crafty play-calling by Andy Reid to discover a defense’s rules and use them against it.

The future is here. And it’s in Kansas City. And it’s going to be a dynasty until the rest of the league catches up. What do you see?