Disclaimer: I’m not a film guy; I’m a strategy guy. I accept what I’ve read from others who analyze film. If anything here doesn’t jive with what you see on film, please let me know (politely) in the comments, ok?
Introduction
With camp starting today for QBs and rookies, I thought it might be interesting to take a look ahead at possible iterations of the running back room. Let’s start with some…
Assumptions
1. Isiah Pacheco is the established starter. He runs angry and violent, and sometimes also blind and straight into his blockers. He also has 4.37 speed yet doesn’t break away once he’s in the defensive backfield. He has his limitations, but he mostly works for what the Chiefs want to do with him. And last year he increased his pass-catching and pass-blocking abilities.
2. CEH is a limited athlete by NFL RB standards, but he is a veteran who knows the system allowing him to either be IP’s backup or the 3rd down specialist. That versatility all but guarantees him a spot on the roster.
3. LRZ is being talked up by Coach Dave Toub as a baller on special teams. To me, that indicates he has an inside track on making the team as one of "Dave’s Darlings."
4. I do NOT expect them to sign or trade for another RB.
5. The Chiefs will most likely have 1 more RB on the roster. Who could it be?
Meet the Contestants
1. Keontay Ingram has been a 3rd down specialist since coming into the league with AZ. He has some wiggle, but has struggled with durability. His 8.68 RAS is nearly identical to IP’s 8.85. He currently appears to be the front-runner for the passing-down role.
2. Deneric Prince was a UDFA last season and spent the year on the Chiefs’ practice squad. He has the top RAS of the room at 9.58. If he can figure out the mental side of the game, he has the most upside.
3. Emani Bailey is a UDFA out of TCU with solid tape and poor testing numbers. As a rookie, he may not be trusted to block for the GOAT-in-waiting unless he shows out at camp.
4. Carson Steele is another UDFA with FB size and strength. He probably went undrafted because of his slow testing numbers and has the same rookie handicap as Bailey.
Depending on who comes out of this, there are several possible…
Iterations
While there is a most likely outcome, there are several other possibilities that say something about how the run game might looks this year.
1. The Chalk: IP – Ingram – CEH – LRZ
The most likely scenario would give each back a clear role. IP is the leader. Ingram is the passing down specialist. CEH is the backup to both IP and Ingram. LRZ is the special teamer. This would give the team balance and versatility with a solid floor.
2. Speed Demons: IP – Prince – Ingram – LRZ
Pop ran a 4.37 40. Prince a 4.41. Ingram only a 4.53 but with a 1.53 10-yard split that’s faster than Pacheco’s 1.56. LRZ’s top speed on the rugby pitch last year was 24 mph. The highest speed reached on the field in 2023 that I found was DK Metcalf’s 22.23. That’s some crazy speed. Defenses already having to deal with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown will see even more speed coming at them, probably leading to a lot of nickel and dime looks when the Chiefs are in 11 personnel.
3. Power n Pop: IP – Steele – Prince – Ingram
Pacheco makes the ground hurt when he runs. Steele put up 28 reps on the bench press (exactly double Orlando Brown Jr.’s 14). Prince had 18 and Ingram 23. This would be a lineup that would bring the hurt every Sunday. Steele could pave the way for any of these 3, particularly running behind Trey Smith.
4. Big Ballers: IP – CEH – Bailey – LRZ
Pacheco has 2 rings in 2 years. CEH has 2 rings plus a National Championship at LSU. Bailey plays beyond his measurables. LRZ won the 2021 Six Nations Championship with Wales as a winger while taking home the "try of the Championship" award (the rugby equivalent of best TD). This group would have the heart of a champion. They’d be hard to bring down… and they’d never quit.
5. Suicide Squad: IP – CEH or Ingram – Steele – LRZ
This would be the most diverse group. Pacheco the clear-cut RB1. CEH or Ingram backing him up. Steele as the FB/short yardage specialist. LRZ the special teamer. Here the mad genius of Andy Reid could mix and match to his heart’s content, keeping defenses on their toes with the constant threat of exploitable mismatches.
6. Minimalist: IP – CEH – LRZ (+2 on PS)
This would save roster spaces if the Chiefs want to keep extra bodies at WR, TE, OL, DL, CB, S, and/or LB. All of that is possible as this year’s team is looking quite deep across the board, and perhaps our RBs are the least likely to get poached.
7. Maximalist: IP – CEH – Ingram – LRZ – Steele
This would probably mean that someone like Irv Smith Jr. is not making the team. It could also mean that one of the WRs and maybe even one of the CBs got traded. There may also be a player who goes on IR. I don’t expect the Chiefs to keep 5, but if they do, strange things will have happened. And the FB is back!
Conclusion
I am surprised that Brett Veach & Co. didn’t do more this offseason to add bodies at RB with so many free agents. My hunch is that the coaches see something the rest of us don’t, though it’s also possible they’ve simply decided to use resources at other positions considered to be higher leverage. Whatever the case may be, this is who we got, and I think it’s good enough to bring home another Lombardi next February. What do you think will happen to the RB room this season?
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