The Mets 2024 season brought me back to baseball. I don't think I'm alone in that experience. After years and years of time, effort, and attention only be greeted by the baseball gods (and ownership) with dead, empty eyes, a new dawn of laughing in the face of disaster is born. LOL turned into OMG. Instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop, we laughed at the idea of footwear. Now that the page has been turned (and torn out of the book and folded into a purple-monster-shaped piece of art), the task is to continue the good baseball - and good juju.

Among other things I now return to is AAOP season on AA. So let's get after it.

RF Juan Soto: 15 years, $650M ($43.33/yr, Opt-outs in years 10,14,15)

Don't overthink it. Soto has 36 fWAR at 26 years old. Having an owner like Cohen allows you the competitive advantage to hand out mega-deals like this. Soto doesn't quite break the total$ or $/year record, but he does get the longest contract ever.

1B Pete Alonso: 6 years, $170M ($28.33M/yr, team option for year 6)

There are some players you have to take emotions and narrative into account. After a season of owning and harnessing the chaos gods, it's about time in the narrative rewriting of the Mets that we have a franchise player who actually stays as a player with the franchise for their career. We were robbed of that in the past by financial chicanery (Seaver, Reyes) and genetic injury (Wright). One of the many benefits that comes with having the richest owner in the league is that you can make moves to both cultivate and protect your franchise culture; making sure Alonso is a Met for life is an important step in that direction. The man has literally written about the power of his family's connection with NY baseball. On the field, his power has resulted in the most HRs in the league this side of Judge over the last 5 years. Sure the K% was a little higher than you'd like to see, but he was the best version of himself when we needed him most and his Barrel% was in-line with his best years.

The other aspect to bringing Alonso back is looking at the other options easily available. The next-best 1B on the market is basically the same type of player, but older with less good power (Walker). Yes, there exists the possibility of moving Vientos to 1B and going after a 3B, but then you're in a similar-but-opposite position of trying to pry another team's franchise player away from them in the form of a 30 year old Bregman or fighting with LA over Adames, and quite frankly, a 3-step plan that hopes things go well is a old-Mets type of move and we've evolved beyond needing to go that type risk-adverse-but-risky type of route.

RHP Sean Manaea: 3 years, $60M ($20M/yr)

Manaea and the Mets seem like a match made in baseball heaven. Manaea’s journey of reinvention has been well tread territory, so I won’t bother recounting it. Manaea pitched like a number 2 pitcher for us and he gets a contract that values him as such.

RHP Luis Severino: 3 years, $50M ($16.66M/yr)

Like Manaea, though less drastic, Severino rediscovered the joy for the game with the Mets and he too is brought back. Severino makes for a fine mid-rotation arm that doesn’t break the bank.

Trade:
To Milwaukee: 3B Brett Baty, IF Marco Vargas, IF Boston Baro, RHP Grant Hartwig
To NY Mets: RHP Devin Williams, C/COF Eric Haase, $1M of international bonus pool money

The Brewers are almost undoubtedly going to lose Adames to free agency and will need to add an infield bat. Baty is a change of scenery candidate who still offers a tempting hitting profile despite his false start in the league. Vargas and Baro are the type of projectable IFs like Ortiz and Turang who profile to get on base, provide value on the basepaths, and steady glove that the Brewers seem to covet. Vargas and Baro rank in the back-half of our top-20 prospects according to MLB.com (13th and 16th). Our farm system is loaded with talent at SS/2B, so the loss shouldn't hurt and including both these prospects allows us to acquire a chunk of international FA pool money. Hartwig has racked up some K/9s, but the walks abound; he's an organizational arm and is included mostly just to open up a 40-man roster spot.

Williams, despite Alonso’s historic home run, is one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the game who slings one of the most dominant pitches in the game. The "airbender" is a screwball-esque changeup that has helped him put up a career 14 K/9, 0.57 HR/9, and 232 ERA+. According to Statcast, Williams’ pitch has been the second most valuable changeup since 2021 worth 39.5 runs above average (Webb 41.9). The Brewers declined his team option and put him on the market in an attempt to extract the most value to their organization; he's due $7.7M in arbitration. Williams will team up with Diaz to offer a rarely before seen ability to lock-down games out of the pen.

Haase is a guy who for some reason or another can't get traction despite playing a premium position, having positional flexibility, and a season under his belt where he popped 22 HRs in less than 400 PAs. Some of that is probably because he's not bringing much value behind the plate as he has an average arm and only mediocre receiving skills. However, what he can do is hit. He's had a 100 or better wRC+ in 3 of his 4 "full" seasons, and he's shown stints of impressive Barrell%.

I think Haase could potentially be a LHP-killer. For some reason, his managers have been giving him more PAs against RHP than lefties, but over the years:
2024: 200 wRC+ in 22 PAs
2023: bad all-around year
2022: 120 wRC+ in 114 PAs
2021: 141 wRC+ in 120 PAs
The sample size is small to be sure, but if he came with a more extensive track-record, either he wouldn’t be available or wouldn’t cost so little. Realistically, settling in as a 115-120 wRC+ bat vLHP could be valuable off the bench. Haase is due $1.8M in arbitration.

Luis Torrens was inoffensive but I’d like to get more out of the backup catcher spot than the occasional non horrible spot start. That said, he offers a decently high floor and is signed to a 1 year, $1.1M contract to avoid arbitration. He doesn’t have any more options available, but I think he’s a guy who can sneak through the waiver wire at the end of Spring Training. Torrens acts as insurance against injury or the Haase experiment.

RHP Roki Sasaki: minor league contract, $4M signing bonus (Intl pool)

Sasaki has the type of biography that seems straight out of baseball mythology of yore: perfect games, 20K performances, and a dominant outing on the international stage on the anniversary of tragic personal loss. "The Monster" has a fastball that touches triple digits, devastating 90mph splitter, and nasty mid-80s slider which have helped him deliver better /9 stats in the NPB than those of Ohtani or Yamamoto. If NPB is comparable to AAA, he put up numbers on par with Paul Skenes (though his K% was lower). That said, it's not wise to think of him as a day-1 ace. He will likely have pitch-caps and an innings cap, so his development will need to be closely monitored. I think Sasaki makes for an ideal piggyback candidate for at least his first year in the MLB where he goes 4 innings and hands the ball off to the next guy for 3 to 4 innings.

A lot of people will say the Dodgers just have to trot out Ohtani and Yamamoto and it'll be a done deal. However, there's something to be said among hyper competitive individuals and paving your own road. Plus it's not like he'll be bereft of Japanese compatriots with Senga on board (they conveniently share the same agent). Another thing going in our favor are how our organization and Hefner helped Severino and Manea become better pitchers by offering them latitude and support. According to Sasaki himself, he's looking for stability, lifestyle, comfort, and a team’s track record with player development. The Mets can confidently offer all of that for the first time in a long time - and include testimonials from 3/5 of his rotation-mates about how great it is to be a pitcher for the NY Mets.

Because he's being posted while just 23 years old, he won't be subject to a crazy arms race contract. Instead, he will be under a minor league contract at league minimum plus bonus. Though the news of his posting came out recently, it's doubtful the Marines actually post him before the new international signing period starts in January, so as to allow renewed pools and higher compensation. With the money we received from the Brewers, we will have $7,261,600 available for the 2025 signing period.

I put Sasaki's bonus at $4M, which leaves us ~$3.2M for the rest of the international signing pool. For the record, Ohtani’s signing bonus was $2.3M when he was posted. The Chiba Lotte Marines are due a fee 25% of the signing bonus, so they get $1M which for the sake of this exercise, I will count against my Luxury Tax figure.

LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara: 2 years, $12M ($6M/yr)

Though just 27, Ogasawara has spent nine seasons with the Chunichi Dragons and was named to the NPB All-Star team in 2023. For his NPB career, he doesn’t have eye-popping numbers; just a cromulent 7.1 K/9, and 3.67 ERA. But what the leftie does well is limit walks (2.9 BB/9 for his career, and just 1.4 last season). Ogasawara throws a modest repertoire consisting of a low-90s FB, low-80s change, and low-70s curve. That’s basically Quintana’s profile (minus the sinker), but with way less walks. I think Ogasawara makes for a great back-end of a piggyback with Sasaki as they have polar opposite offerings and throw from different sides.

RHP Paul Blackburn: decline option, re-sign to 2 years, $5M ($2.5M/yr)

Blackburn has a weird injury that casts doubt on his timetable to return. Because of this, he accepts 2/5 over 1/4. He presumably starts the year on the IL60, but he likely is ready some time in May or June and provides much needed depth.

DH/COF Jesse Winker: 1 year, $4M

After the league's biggest troll joined the team, the vibes reached even higher levels. Most importantly, as a long-side platoon bat he hit to a 124 wRC+ vRHP last season, which is right in line with his career mark. We bring him back to do it again. The one-year deal also leaves the door open to sign Vlad Jr. next offseason.

IF Jose Iglesias: 1 year, $2M (mutual option: 1 year, $2M)

His impact in the clubhouse and late-career resurgence was obvious so I won't bore everyone recounting it. He brings stellar defensive value even if he can't replicate the immaculate situational hitting. In a world where which version of McNeil we get is a question, having Iglesias to fall back on is valuable.

UTL Kyle Farmer: 1 year, $900K

Farmer took a FB square to the face in 2023. Then he had an abysmal start to 2024 that he spent the rest of the season digging out from. That said, no matter where the bat ends up, the guy can still bring defensive value by playing multiple positions well (2B, 3B, SS). He has also played LF and caught in the past. Hell, he’s even served as a blow-out pitcher multiple times in his career. My plan for Farmer is to tell him to get used to the OF and 1B in Spring Training as I want to be able to use him all over the diamond as a defensive asset. This is basically the same type of move we made with Iglesias last season, as Farmer is touted as a good clubhouse guy as well. If it doesn’t work out, there’s basically no downside, as we can move on to Acuna, one of the other kids, or make a move at the deadline.

LHP AJ Minter: 1 year, $8M

Minter maybe isn’t your typical lefty out of the pen as he’s faced more RHB than left. That said, he does well against LHB with a career 11.46 K/9, and 0.5 HR/9. From 2021-23, for LHP relievers with at least 150 IP, his ERA and K% is top-5. He was shut down last August to get surgery on his hip, but other than that has been reliable with >50 IP each of the three seasons preceding. The contract is based off of MLBTR, but with the injury, I think he only gets 1 year for the same AAV.

RHP Ryne Stanek: 1 year, $5M

Stanek came over around the deadline and was of the few bullpen arms that inspired any confidence, so he comes back with a slight raise over his last contract. What I like about bringing Stanek back is it pushes Dedniel Núñez off the 26-man roster, obviously increasing our depth.

RHP Noah Syndergaard: 1 year, $900K (team option: 1 year, $1.5M)

Over the last few years, things have absolutely fallen apart for the Norse God of thunder. After leaving town in the wake of Tommy John, Thor has seen his K% and velocity fall, and opponent Barrel% rise. His FB and sinker have dropped to low-to-mid 90s and what once was a freaky low-90s slider is now a pedestrian mid-80s slider. He briefly was able to make the new pitch-profile work in 2022, but the league adjusted and hit him around in 2023 so hard he was released by the Guardians and didn't pitch in 2024.

So you might ask why the hell am I bringing him back? Well, reports are he's dropped 30 lbs as he's gotten back to basics with his training refining his mechanics, and he's recently expressed a longing to come back to Queens in an interview with Terry Collins. Beyond that, we've seen quite a few former starters who've flamed out remake their careers as bullpen arms. Usually this process involves narrowing their focus to a simple and repeatable delivery that allows them to go max-effort for 20-30 pitches, and/or simplifying their mix to something more manageable. In fact, the biggest-name reliever on the FA market (Hoffman) revived his career this exact way. Hefner can potentially work some magic by simply sitting Syndergaard down and telling him that trying to have 7 worthwhile pitches is dumb. Dropping the curve, change, and cutter to simplify his repertoire to an easier to maintain fastball/sinker/slider/splitter combo similar to that of Blake Treinen or the aforementioned Hoffman could potentially do wonders even if he never quite regains the 97mph FB.

Non-Roster ST Invites:

RHP Sean Reid-Foley

Shoulder issues can be career-enders, but Reid-Foley was a decent pen arm. He gets a chance to work his way back.

RHP Enoli Parades

Parades has been able to strike batters out, but walks have been a huge issue in his career - so much so that the Cubs decided to put him on outright waivers. We give him a MiLB contract and an invite to ST.

LHP Brooks Raley

Raley got TJ surgery in May, so this is less of a ST invite and more of a "rehab at our facilities" invite.

2025 NY METS

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