As we Pitt fans lick our wounds over the thrashing from Clemson, let’s engage in a little "What If …" scenario to take our minds off of our woes. This one involves one of our favorite topics: conference re-alignment.
What if … Notre Dame discovers that being in the ACC if really cool, brings in a ton more money, and makes recruiting better, and they decide to have football join the rest of their sports (except hockey) in the Atlantic Coast Conference? The conference would then be at 15 teams, which makes tournaments difficult. So, who would/could/should the ACC bring in to fill the final spot and make the conference 16 teams?
Instead of just listing teams I tried to be logical about this and looked at each FBS conference and tried to select the best candidates to join the ACC. My criteria are based on academics and athletics. The candidates should have both. For simplicity I used the US News and World Report for academic standings. The lowest academic school in the ACC is Louisville, which is 176, but it is an outlier. The next lowest school is NC State at 80. I’m a bit embarrassed by Louisville and so I’ll use 80 as the bar for academic rankings.
First off, the PAC 12 and Mountain West conferences are too far away and so will not join a conference on the opposite side of the continent. Hawai’i would be sweet, though.
Secondly, there are no schools in the MAC or Sun Belt that are eligible. Ohio University sounds like it has potential, but is ranked 176. Ohio’s sports do not bring enough to outweigh their academic ranking.
Next are the contenders listed in order of likely to least likely.
Independents: Academically, UConn is ranked 63 and UMass is ranked 66. Both have decent basketball, but their football programs are abysmal. Either of these schools would jump at the chance to join the ACC. These schools would be the easiest for the ACC to add.
Conference USA: Rice is ranked 16, which is really high, but sports have been low for years. The ACC might go for Rice to have a link to the fertile recruiting grounds of Texas. A school with decent sports like Marshall is ranked 284 and thus ineligible.
American: Academically Tulane is ranked 41, and has a great medical school, but sports are weak. Tulane has potential. SMU is ranked 66, but I think the ACC would steer clear of a school that once received the death penalty for corruption. Other schools with good athletics like Cincinatti-143, UCF-160, and Memphis-258 are too low although two of them are higher ranked than Louisville. South Florida’s sports are not great but they are ranked 103. The ACC already has two schools in Florida so likely would be looking for a different media market.
On now to the Power 5 conferences. For financial and contractual reasons schools in these conferences are very unlikely to leave their current conference, but with Notre Dame in the ACC some of these schools might make the move.
Big 12: Texas is ranked 42 and has shown that they are not completely happy in the Big 12. They also have their own network so financially they likely are secure and unlikely to rock the boat. Of the other academically eligible schools, TCU-80 and Baylor-82 are on the far side of Texas, which would make travel challenging. Kansas is not so far away and has a great basketball team, but their academic rank is 182. I think the ACC would overlook the academic ranking to get Kansas basketball.
Big 10: As one of the richest conferences, no school is likely to leave, but this is a "what if …" so we can dream. Maybe Maryland realizes that the football field grass is not always greener and wants back in the ACC? I would love that because that is the school closest to me and I so could go to games. Nebraska has shown historically that they like to change conferences, and earlier in 2020 wanted to play football more than stay in the Big 10 so if the ACC had made an offer at the start of the pandemic, Nebraska might have said yes and the ACC would have overlooked their ranking of 133.
And finally:
SEC: No team is likely to leave the pinnacle of college football conferences, but you never know. Vanderbilt is a small, academic school that would fit in well with the other similar schools in the ACC. Vandy’s sports would not benefit the ACC much, but I bet the conference would welcome the number 14 ranking. Kentucky is a great basketball school, but I think they like being conference champion pretty much every year. Academically ranked 133, I’m sure the ACC could overlook that for Kentucky basketball.
That’s my list of schools that would join the ACC. What did I miss?
All we need now is for Notre Dame to join the ACC, which is the least likely thing to happen of all of the scenarios above!