This is a big board, not a mock draft. These are the players I would take in order. I omitted a fair number of players due to lack of confidence they will stick in the league or just not knowing enough about every prospect. As always fit and opportunity play a huge role for these players.

My draft philosophies:

1. Draft for potential at the top of the lottery. NBA stars are hard to come by and anybody that is picking at the top of the lottery likely needs stars before they are anywhere near competing for championships.

2. Shooting is the most important attribute for guards and wings. If players can’t shoot at these positions, they need to be really strong in other areas to be able to find any role in the NBA.

3. After the initial high upside early lottery players, aim for role players that fill needs for your team. The best later picks are those with high floor and some upside, but there are only so many of those. Good teams are not just built upon star players, but complimentary teammates that hide those stars weaknesses and bring out their strengths. There is no better place to find cheap role players than the draft.

4. In the second-round teams can do what they want. Finding a player that makes an NBA roster long term is considered a win at this point. There’s nothing wrong with swinging for upside since most players don’t make it at this point but finding a role player is also a win.

5. Any player within a tier has similar talent and can be switched with another in that tier based on fit. Fit plays an important role in how players are used, how much opportunity they get, and how good they will become. Generally players at the same position within a tier are in order of how I value them

Players:

Tier 1: These are the highest likelihood players to be stars. There are no Bonafede stars in this draft and the top end of players is weaker than most years. These guys are more likely to be 2nd or 3rd stars than the best player on a good team.

1. Alex Sarr: Modern big at 7’ with a 7’4" wingspan. Switchable on defense with elite rim protection. Covers a lot of ground on the defensive end and could be a linchpin in an elite defense. Athletic with a nice handle. Can pass some and has 3-point potential. Hit 37% of his catch and shoot 3s. Can handle some and score off the dribble and in transition. Not a strong finisher and struggles against big centers. Needs to improve rebounding. A switchable elite rim defending big that could space the floor would be a valuable number 2 player on a really good team. Reminds me of JJJ.

2. Rob Dillingham: Small combo guard at only 6"1" with a 6’3" wingspan and only weighs 164lbs. Dillingham is electric with the ball in his hands. Very quick with a good handle and can score from all 3 levels including shooting 3s off the dribble, from spot up, and off movement. Pretty good passer too. He is small though and will always be a poor defender due to his size. Not always engaged on that end either. Highest upside offensive player in this draft.

Tier 2: Elite role players with a chance to be a star in the right situation

3. Donovan Clingan: Huge center at 7’2" with a 7’7" wingspan. Elite rim protector and positioning on defense. Can play multiple coverages but will make his living in drop. Strong rebounder. Can punish mismatches in the post and catch lobs. Has some passing skills too. Could be utilized in dribble hand off game or short roll to success. Can’t shoot at all with only around 50% from the FT line. Has some injury concerns with foot problems as a freshman which is scary for a big. Needs to land in the right situation to really thrive.

4. Devin Carter: Bulldog 2 guard at 6’2" with a 6’9" wingspan. Was an incredible defender despite around a 30% usage rate on offense. Strong at the point of attack. Similar length to Marcus Smart and Jrue Holiday. Also handled the majority of his offensive duties well. Shot well off the dribble on high volume and with a high degree of difficulty. Also hit catch and shoot 3s and finished well at the rim. Good handle and passing but not elite at either. Needs to reign in the shot selection and develop a midrange game. Was not a good shooter the previous 2 years but this year was high enough volume that I believe the shot. Probably won’t be a primary creator but could be a 2nd or 3rd option and 1st team all defense potential.

5. Dalton Knecht: Big wing with a silky shot. 6’5" with a 6’9" wingspan. Can shoot the lights out from 3 scoring off the dribble, off movement, and from spot up at high volume. Has some shot-creation potential as well with a nice midrange game. Should be a decent defender with less of an offensive role. Good but not great athlete or ball handler.

6. Cody Williams: Lanky wing at 6’7" with a 7’1" wingspan. Pretty thin at 178lbs but also a young player. Has great lateral movement and length. Can stick with perimeter players and bother them with length. Shot well from 3 but on low volume. Fantastic finisher at the rim. Played through multiple injuries this year and accepted a nonlead role while playing with multiple upperclassmen that will get drafted this year. I’m not a big believer in his self-creation game but there is room to grow. Also think he will be more of an average 3-point shooter rather than 41% like he was in college due to his low volume. Reminds me of Jaden McDaniels.

7. Reed Sheppard: Smaller combo guard at 6’2" with a 6’3" wingspan. Lights out shooter making over 50% of his 3s on high volume this year. Pretty good passer and excellent off ball defender racking up stocks. High level athlete. Not a good ball handler which limits his ability as a more traditional lead guard. Would fit really well running off dribble handoffs with a big in either Houston of San Antonio. Needs to have a good fit to hit a higher end potential. I don’t like the fit or upside as much in more of a Seth Curry role.

Tier 3: Good role player with upside

8. Carlton "Bub" Carrington: Big combo guard at 6’4" with a 6’8" wingspan. Bub is a bucket getter. Big and athletic guard with a crafty handle and shot making ability. Very good at pull ups and hit them at a decent rate despite high difficulty. Pretty good passer too and should be a average to solid defender depending on which team he lands on. Main concern is that he hardly ever got to the rim despite playing on a team with good spacing. If he gets better at getting to the rim, I could see him becoming the best player in this class. If not, he might end up as a bench gunner.

9. Ja’Kobe Walter: Big combo guard at 6’4" with a 6’10" wingspan and a silky shooting stroke. Shot well from 3 off the dribble, off movement, and off spot ups. Good understanding of how to get open. Pretty good athleticism. Showed flashes of high-level finishing and passing. Has a pretty poor handle, bad shooting selection, and was a really bad defender but has the physical tools to improve on that end. Shot less than 40% from the field this year but over half his shots were 3s. If he improves his handle and lands in the right culture, he could be the best player in the class. Most likely just a 3 point shooter though.

10. Kel’el Ware: Versatile center at 7’ and 7’4.5". Solid rim protector with decent lateral movement. Pretty good rebounder. Can catch lobs and shoot 3s. Lacks physicality against big centers at the moment and has questions about his motor. Ware is in this tier primarily because rim protecting centers that can space the floor are so valuable.

11. Isaiah Collier: Strong, athletic point guard at 6’3" with a 6’5" wingspan. Explosive athlete that is a strong finisher, passer, and has a good handle. Should be a good defender as well. Only shot 33% from 3 with many bad misses which might lead to him not sticking in the league. Could be an excellent lead guard if the shot develops. Probably a pretty good back up pg if the shot doesn’t come all the way around.

Tier 4: Good role player

12. Tyson: Big wing that can create his shot and shoot from 3-point range. Was a good defender in prior years but was very bad at Cal. Poor shot selection. Pretty good athlete. Doesn’t have an elite skill.

13. Risacher: Big wing at 6’8" with a 6’8" wingspan. Streaky shooter but should be able to hit shots at an average clip at least. Good cutter and connective passer. Above average wing defender. Good positional defender. No self-creation upside. Talk about getting picked number 1 overall seems like a reach.

14. McCain: Small but stout guard at 6’3". Can shoot well from 3 and defend guards well. Not a great passer of self-creator. Should be able to space the floor and defend some.

15. Scheierman: Big wing that is an elite shooter from 3, good rebounder, and good passer. Limited athlete and decent defender. Not a huge upside guy but should be a good role player

16. Buzelis: Athletic forward with a questionable 3 point shot. Looks like a decent weakside shot blocker. Maybe some creation upside. Has a bit of a loose handle. I don’t buy the shot being anything better than average primarily off the catch.

17. Missi: Rim running big that can catch lobs and defend the rim. Sets good screens.

18. Kolek: Crafty PG that can shoot well and pass at a high level. Decent defender. Not very athletic and pretty small.

19. Furphy: Big guard/wing. Good defender and should be an average shooter. Some creation upside.

20. Shannon Jr.: Big, athletic guard who is a great defender. Did a good job creating his own shot. Shot well from 3 his senior year but I am not convinced the shot will stick. If it does, he could be a good starting 2 guard.

21. Edey: Huge center that is great in the post, sets hard screens, and is a good rebounder. Slow footed and will only be able to play deep drop. Not a great passer. Can’t shoot or catch lobs. Reminds me of Jonas Valencunas

22. Da Silva: Big wing who can shoot 3s and defend some. Seems a little stiff. Not much upside but should be a solid role player

23. Dadiet: Big, athletic French wing. Shot the ball decently from 3. Needs to work on his skills. Is more skilled but smaller than Salaun

24. Tyler Smith: Lanky forward that can shoot 3s, catch lobs, and provide weakside rim protection. Not a 5. Doesn’t seem to have great defensive feel. I think I like the idea of Smith better than the actual player. Reminds me of Jalen Smith.

25. Ajay Mitchell: Big PG/combo guard that can score from all 3 levels, pass, and defend decently. Doesn’t have an elite skill but does everything decently well.

Tier 5: High upside players with at least 1 potentially fatal flaw. Most of these players are wings or guards that can’t shoot. With clearance from a shooting coach, 12 or higher would be a fine spot to select these players. Without the confidence of a shooting coach, I wouldn’t take any of these players unless they fall to the late first.

26. Ron Hollins: Big, athletic wing with a high motor but low BBIQ, bad handle, and can’t shoot. Good defender. Reminds me of Josh Jackson if the shot doesn’t fall or Andrew Wiggins with a better motor if it does. I have more faith in his jumper than Castle.

27. Stephon Castle: Big guard who is a bulldog defender, pretty good passer and shooter in a specialized off ball role at UCONN. I don’t trust the shot or any lead guard playmaking skills. Reminds me a lot of Jarrett Culver as a prospect

28. Nikola Topic: Bigger guard at 6’5" but his wingspan ended up at 6’5" instead of the reported 7’. Good handle and high-level passer. Played against good competition in Europe. Strong finisher, but I doubt it will translate without a plus wingspan or athleticism. Really poor defender and a poor athlete. Shot 31% from 3 on low volume. Was hesitant to shoot and left wide open by defenders. Almost all of his 3s were assisted. If he can’t shoot and isn’t a good athlete I don’t see how his game translates to the NBA. If he can shoot, pass well, and finish at the rim he could be a good lead guard.

29. Salaun: Big, athletic wing who lacks balls skills and is a questionable shooter. Showed flashes of excellent defense while also being completely lost at times. Only finished around 40% of layups. Big boom or bust potential

Tier 6: Fliers with a chance to be a role player or bench guy

30. Jalen Bridges: Big 3&D wing

31. Holmes: undersized center without great lateral movement. Good scoring in the post, can catch lobs. Pretty good rebounder and decent passer. Potential as a 3 point shooter. I think he would do best losing weight and moving down to the 4.

32. KJ Simpson: Undersized PG that can shoot and pass well. Decent creator. Not a good defender

33. Cam Christie: Undersized scoring guard. Decent creator and 3 point shooter. Probably a 3&D guard or bench scorer

34. Jaylen Wells: 3&D wing without a huge volume of 3s over the years.

35. Enrique Freeman: Undersized center that would probably play the 4. Athletic. Good at scoring in the paint. Elite rebounder and very good defender. Too small to play 5 and shot the 3 well this year but on very low volume. If the shot comes around he could be a really good 4. If not, he’s probably to small to play 5 and too offensively limited to play a big role at the 4.

36. Filipowski: Stretch 5 that isn’t very physical. Not much stands out besides shooting

37. Pelle Larsson: 3&D guard

38. Keyshawn George: young 3 point shooting wing with good size. Doesn’t offer much besides shooting

39. Adam Bona: Undersized 5 with pretty good lateral quickness and a good motor. Scores well inside, rebounds hard, and can defend in multiple coverages. Probably not a strong enough rim protector or spacer to be a starter.

40. Cam Spencer: small 3 point shooting guard who works hard on defense but isn’t very athletic

41. McCullar: Backup PG who can play make and shot create decently and defend really well. Can’t shoot well and has major injury concerns

42. Justin Edwards: athletic 3&D prospect. Only catch and shoot at this point. Very one hand dominant.

43. Keshad Johnson: Athletic forward that can defend, score in the paint, and rebound. Can’t shoot.

44. Antonio Reed: 3 point specialist shooting guard