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Run Expectancy Matrix, 1950-2015

Actual Runs Scored,
following each base/out state to end of inning

All data is from 1950-2015, courtesy of Retrosheet, our sabremetric sliced bread.

Note: Only includes: completed innings; through the 8th inning.

 

The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning.

 
Base Runners   2010-2015   1993-2009   1969-1992   1950-1968
1B 2B 3B   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs
__ __ __   0.481 0.254 0.098   0.547 0.293 0.113   0.477 0.252 0.094   0.476 0.256 0.098
1B __ __   0.859 0.509 0.224   0.944 0.565 0.245   0.853 0.504 0.216   0.837 0.507 0.216
__ 2B __   1.100 0.664 0.319   1.175 0.723 0.349   1.102 0.678 0.325   1.094 0.680 0.330
1B 2B __   1.437 0.884 0.429   1.562 0.966 0.471   1.476 0.902 0.435   1.472 0.927 0.441
__ __ 3B   1.350 0.950 0.353   1.442 0.991 0.388   1.340 0.943 0.373   1.342 0.926 0.378
1B __ 3B   1.784 1.130 0.478   1.854 1.216 0.533   1.715 1.149 0.484   1.696 1.151 0.504
__ 2B 3B   1.964 1.376 0.580   2.053 1.449 0.626   1.967 1.380 0.594   1.977 1.385 0.620
1B 2B 3B   2.292 1.541 0.752   2.390 1.635 0.815   2.343 1.545 0.752   2.315 1.540 0.747

The following table presents the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each base/out state

 
Base Runners   2010-2015   1993-2009   1969-1992   1950-1968
1B 2B 3B   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs
__ __ __   0.268 0.155 0.067   0.294 0.173 0.075   0.267 0.153 0.064   0.263 0.154 0.066
1B __ __   0.416 0.265 0.127   0.442 0.285 0.135   0.426 0.269 0.125   0.410 0.264 0.122
__ 2B __   0.614 0.397 0.216   0.639 0.419 0.230   0.623 0.411 0.224   0.615 0.410 0.227
1B 2B __   0.610 0.406 0.222   0.644 0.430 0.237   0.632 0.421 0.230   0.623 0.425 0.232
__ __ 3B   0.843 0.660 0.257   0.854 0.675 0.271   0.840 0.664 0.274   0.818 0.650 0.278
1B __ 3B   0.860 0.634 0.270   0.868 0.652 0.289   0.855 0.647 0.280   0.849 0.648 0.287
__ 2B 3B   0.852 0.676 0.260   0.867 0.698 0.280   0.855 0.678 0.275   0.839 0.664 0.285
1B 2B 3B   0.861 0.657 0.316   0.878 0.679 0.334   0.874 0.668 0.320   0.849 0.652 0.316

The following table presents the frequency of plate appearances that started in each base/out state.

 
Base Runners   2010-2015   1993-2009   1969-1992   1950-1968
1B 2B 3B   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs   0 outs 1 outs 2 outs
__ __ __   0.244 0.175 0.139   0.240 0.168 0.133   0.242 0.170 0.134   0.242 0.171 0.135
1B __ __   0.059 0.070 0.071   0.061 0.071 0.071   0.063 0.072 0.072   0.064 0.074 0.075
__ 2B __   0.015 0.026 0.033   0.015 0.027 0.034   0.012 0.027 0.034   0.012 0.026 0.032
1B 2B __   0.014 0.025 0.031   0.015 0.027 0.033   0.014 0.025 0.033   0.014 0.026 0.034
__ __ 3B   0.002 0.009 0.014   0.002 0.009 0.015   0.002 0.009 0.014   0.003 0.008 0.012
1B __ 3B   0.005 0.011 0.016   0.006 0.012 0.016   0.006 0.012 0.016   0.006 0.012 0.015
__ 2B 3B   0.003 0.007 0.008   0.003 0.008 0.008   0.003 0.007 0.008   0.003 0.007 0.007
1B 2B 3B   0.004 0.009 0.011   0.004 0.010 0.012   0.003 0.009 0.010   0.004 0.009 0.011