Spatiotemporal dynamic relationships and simulation of urban spatial form changes and land surface temperature: a case study in Chengdu, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of local climate zones (LCZ) associated with changes in land surface temperature (LST) can help urban planners deeply understand urban climate. Firstly, we monitored the evolution of 3D urban spatial form in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China from 2010 to 2020, used the ordinary least squares model to fit the dynamic correlation (DR) between the changes in urban spatial patterns and changes in LST, and revealed the changes of urban spatial patterns closely related to the rise in LST. Secondly, the spatiotemporal patterns of LST were examined by the integration of the Space-Time Cube model and emerging hotspot analysis. Finally, a prediction model based on curve fitting and random forest was integrated to simulate the LST of study area in 2025. Results show the following: the evolution of the urban spatial form consists of three stages: initial incremental expansion, midterm incremental expansion and stock renewal, and late stock renewal and ecological transformation. The influence of the built environment on the rise of LST is greater than that of the natural environment, and the building density has a greater effect than the building height. The overall LST shows a warming trend, and the seven identified LST spatiotemporal patterns are dominated by oscillating and new hotspots patterns, accounting for 51.99 and 11.44% of the study area, respectively. The DR between urban spatial form and LST varies across different time periods and built environment types, whereas the natural environment is always positively correlated with LST. The thermal environment of the city will warm up in the future, and the area affected by the heat island will shift to the central of the city.