Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago White Sox

• The Very Big Hurt: The White Sox got terrible news on Sunday, learning
  that designated hitter Frank Thomas would miss another eight
  weeks with a broken bone in his left foot. At 36, the future Hall of Famer was
  having his best season since 2000, batting .271/.434/.563. His .334 EqA leads
  the Sox and ranks fifth in the American League.

  The Sox have no way of replacing Thomas’ OBP in the middle of the lineup.
  While some teams, like the Twins, have a glut of first base/DH types just
  clamoring for playing time, the Sox are thin at the right end of the defensive
  spectrum. On the major league roster, Ross Gload has been a
  replacement-level hitter so far this year, while Timo Perez
  hasn’t even been that good. Triple-A Charlotte boasts little that can be
  expected to make up for the loss of Thomas.

  Compounding the problem for the Sox is a lineup that can’t afford to lose OBP.
  Jose Uribe hasn’t been getting on base for a month now, and
  Joe Crede is quickly becoming a bust. The Sox also start
  Jose Valentin, an excellent player whose offensive value is
  in his power (.320 OBP). A team can only afford so many out makers, and the
  Sox, sans Thomas, are reaching the breaking point. They scored just 33 runs in
  the first eight games after losing Thomas, nearly a run-and-a-half a game
  below their average prior to that.

  On the same weekend that the Sox found out the extent of Thomas’ injury, the
  Twins called up Justin Morneau to be their DH. We might look
  back in October and see that the first few days after the All-Star break were
  what determined the race in the AL Central.

• Meet the New DH, Same as the Old CF: In an effort to patch for the loss
  of Thomas, GM Kenny Williams re-acquired Carl Everett from
  the Expos in exchange for Jon Rauch and Gary
  Majewski. Williams had made a similar deal in ’03, picking up Everett
  from the Rangers for prospects.

  There are some key differences between the two trades. Last year Williams
  added a presumably healthy player in the middle of a strong season in exchange
  for three middling prospects. This time, he added an injured guy who is having
  a lousy year, and gave up two of his better prospects for the privilege. Rauch
  had been buried by the team in part because of an incident that occurred
  during his last call-up, but with 61 strikeouts and 25 walks in 72.1 innings
  at Triple-A, he’d shown that he was just about ready for a major league job.
  Gary Majewski, the second pitcher in the deal, might be ready
  to help a major league bullpen right now. The Sox gave up real value in this
  trade.

  In spite of that, there are reasons to believe this can work out. Because of
  Aaron Rowand‘s strong play, Everett will be asked to play
  right field–and eventually DH, when Magglio Ordonez is
  100%–rather than center. Everett has been hampered all year by shoulder,
  hamstring and ankle injuries, but is reportedly over all of them and healthy
  for the first time since last season. Everett is a strong batter from the left
  side, an important consideration for the Sox–just as it was last year–who lean
  heavily toward the right side.

  Combined with the deal that sent Jeremy Reed and
  Miguel Olivo to the Mariners for Freddy
  Garcia, it’s clear that Williams believes that the window on his team
  is closing. Since last summer he’s dealt away the organization’s top two prospects,
  a bunch of lesser ones, and a cheap young catcher, for short-term
  improvements. Williams’ job is likely riding on the Sox winning the division
  this season, because he’s mortgaged the future to make it happen.

• Outstanding Performer: He gets less respect than reality television,
  but Damaso Marte has shaken off a so-so start to once again
  be one of the AL’s best left-handed relievers.

  Marte blew the save on Opening Day in Kansas City, allowing two home runs and
  a single as the Royals rallied for five runs in the ninth inning off of him
  and Billy Koch Since then, however, he’s allowed just eight
  runs in 42.2 innings, while putting up the strong peripherals–37:15
  strikeout-to-walk ratio, 574 OPS allowed–that marked him as an underrated
  contributor to a good team. He’s once again been passed over for the closer
  role, but look past the saves and you’ll see that he’s every bit as good as
  his teammate Shingo Takatsu. In a division lousy with good
  left-handed hitters, Marte is a weapon.

Oakland Athletics

• It’s Not Just the Playoffs That Are Luck: With nominal closer
  Arthur Rhodes experiencing a variety of meltdowns, and a
  desperate need to find someone who could miss bats late in the game, Billy
  Beane once again mixed the A’s up in a multi-way trade. Beane swapped
  prospects Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the
  Royals and received Octavio Dotel and cash from the Astros.
  The deal was effectively nothing for something for the A’s, who had no role
  for either prospect at the major league level.

  The trade has been anything but a panacea for the bullpen. Dotel allowed four
  runs in his A’s debut, blowing a 7-3 lead in an eventual 8-7 loss to the
  Giants. In 12 appearances, Dotel has an ERA of 6.59, with five saves in seven
  chances. Other than in that first game, in which he ended up pitching 2.1
  innings, Dotel has been used as a conventional closer, throwing an inning or
  less in 10 of his 11 appearances since. That’s disappointing, especially
  for a team like the A’s that should recognize the value Dotel has in
  high-leverage situations earlier in the game.

  The thing is, Dotel hasn’t pitched poorly for the A’s as much as he’s pitched
  in awful luck. His indicators–strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk rate,
  groundball-to-flyball ratio, home-run rate–are all in line with his Astros
  numbers, and he posted a 3.12 ERA before the deal. That 6.59 ERA is driven by
  a ridiculous .500 batting average allowed on balls in play. The number seems
  even stranger when you consider that the A’s are one of the best defensive
  teams in baseball.

  No one gets pinned with a .500 BABIP (most pitchers oscillate around .290) all
  year long. To do so for even a month is a bit strange. Dotel’s seasonal line
  may be screwed up by the last few weeks, but there’s no reason to believe he’s
  not still a dominant reliever, capable both of pitching the A’s into the
  postseason and helping them get over the Division Series hump once they’re
  there. Fantasy players, consider Dotel a strong buy and start shouting
  “6.59!” at his owner in your league.

• Stat of the Month: Pitching coach Rick Peterson, considered to be to
  the A’s success what Leo Mazzone is to that of the Braves, was hired away by
  the Mets over the winter. Has the move had a negative impact for Oakland? With substantially the
  same pitchers working for both teams over the past two years, a direct
  comparison of the staffs is instructive.

  
  K/BB ratio
         2003     2004    Change
  A's    2.04     1.91    -6.4%
  Mets   1.57     1.71   +13.2%
  
  

  You might wonder why we didn’t use ERA or RA. The Mets have improved their
  defense so much over the past year that using runs to measure improved
  pitching–usually a good idea–would skew the comparison in their favor.
  Strikeout-to-walk ratio is a better reflection of Peterson’s influence, or
  lack thereof, as he worked hard with the A’s big three to get them throwing
  strikes. It appears that he’s done the same in New York.

  Looking at the rotations he handled in ’03 and ’04 doesn’t indicate much, as
  the A’s are a mixed bag, while the Mets have seen three of their top four
  starters lose ground. The degree of change is interesting; the impact of
  Peterson on Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and
  Tom Glavine pops from this chart.

  
  K/BB ratio
                     2003     2004    Change
  Tim Hudson         2.66     2.08    -21.8%
  Mark Mulder        3.20     2.33    -27.1%
  Rich Harden        1.68     1.92    +14.3%
  Barry Zito         1.66     1.87    +12.7%
  
  Al Leiter          1.48     1.21    -18.2%
  Tom Glavine        1.24     2.03    +63.7%
  Steve Trachsel     1.71     1.49    -12.9%
  Jae Seo            2.39     1.31    -45.2%
  
  

  That doesn’t consider Peterson’s work with the desiccated remnants of
  Ricky Bottalico (3.27 ERA, 2.00 K/BB) or the fact that he’s
  gotten good work from Orber Moreno (3.27 ERA, 2.90 K/BB) and
  Jose Parra (3.21 ERA, 2.33 K/BB).

  Better command of the strike zone has helped the Mets move to among the NL
  leaders in run prevention, and Peterson deserves some credit for that. As the
  charts above show, though, the data aren’t clear on just how much. The team
  changes in command, particularly in New York, are driven by the deltas on just
  a few players. Eyeballing the names, you might suggest that perhaps Peterson’s
  approach works best with a certain type of pitcher, perhaps ones more inclined
  to go along with the cerebral coach. That’s a bit of a stretch, of course (and
  a poor fit when considering Al Leiter‘s numbers). It may just be that this is a half-season of information, and not nearly enough on which to draw conclusions.

• Upcoming Schedule: The A’s season won’t be decided in the next two
  weeks, but we’ll certainly see whether they’ll have to play from behind or
  ahead down the stretch. Beginning Thursday, the A’s play seven games in 11
  days against the division-leading Texas Rangers, the last of those just on the
  other side of the July 31 trade deadline, and then take a tough road trip to
  play potential October foes in the Yankees and Twins.

  Their reward for playing well in those games, if they do so, is a three-week
  vacation: the Tigers and Royals at home, then two weeks of the Orioles and
  Devil Rays. The latter two teams have been good to the A’s the past few years.
  They went 11-1 against the two in an identical stretch in 2001, a run that
  helped propel them to the Wild Card. Last year, an 8-4 run wrapped around
  Labor Day helped the A’s get control of the West.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Down on the Farm: With a name like Ryan Howard, you
  wouldn’t expect a singles-hitting, speedy defensive outfielder. No, that’s a
  slugger’s name, the moniker of a big kid from the back country who hits it
  hard and far when he hits it, and changes weather patterns with his whiffs
  when he doesn’t.

  At 6’4″ and 230 pounds, the Phillies’ first-base prospect fulfills those
  expectations. The Phils’ #5 pick in the 2001 draft is destroying the Eastern
  League to the tune of .303/.387/.668, having blasted 35 home runs in 343
  at-bats. With six weeks to go in the Eastern League season, Howard is a near
  lock to shatter the circuit’s record of 41 bombs, set back in 1930 by…oh, come
  on, you know this…Hazelton’s Ken Strong in 1930, and tied by
  Rick Lancellotti in 1979 for Buffalo.

  Combined major league at-bats for the two record-holders? 65.

  Howard is an appropriate heir to that legacy, His prodigious power aside, he’s
  not a great prospect. Howard isn’t particularly young, 24, and he has all the
  defensive value of Ural. He strikes out a ton: once every three at-bats this year, a slight
  uptick from his rates the past two seasons. Striking out at unacceptable
  levels, and losing ground in your command of the strike zone as you move up in
  the system, are two red flags in evaluating hitting prospects. Being in
  Double-A at 24 is another.

  Howard’s greatest value to the Phillies is as trade bait. He’s never going to
  play for them, because the Phillies have the major league version, plus 80
  walks, in Jim Thome, and he’s signed though 2017 or so. The
  A’s had a similar situation with Mark Teahen, and they turned him into Octavio
  Dotel. With the Phillies locked in a tight race with three other teams, and
  with addressable weaknesses, General Manager Ed Wade has to do the same with Howard. If he
  doesn’t, and the Phillies fall short for a third straight season, it will be
  time to wonder if Wade is up to the task of finishing what he started.

• Welcome Back: One of the notions floated about the 2004 Phillies was
  that they didn’t need any great performances to win, just solid seasons from
  their starting lineup and rotation. Had they gotten even average performance
  from third base and left field in ’03, they probably would have won the Wild
  Card going away. David Bell and Pat Burrell
  had disastrous years, though, combining for a season-and-a-half of
  replacement-level play.

  This year, both players have been assets. Bell is having perhaps his best
  season, batting .279/.364/.471 and playing a very good third base. He’s
  increased his walk rate since coming to Philadelphia, but unlike the spike we
  often see when an older player loses his bat speed, the 31-year-old Bell has
  also added power. He’s on pace for the highest slugging average and isolated
  power marks of his career.

  Burrell is still striking out at a prodigious rate, and his power isn’t where
  it was during his excellent ’02 season, but at .271/.384/.465, he, too, is
  helping the Phillies stay in the NL East race. Burrell is on a career-best pace for walks and K/BB ratio, and
  improvements in those areas indicate that Burrell is also getting himself into
  more hitters’ counts. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him locate his power
  stroke and have a monster second half, something like .300/.400/.600.

• Fantasy Tip: Kevin Millwood‘s batting average allowed
  on balls in play is .327, well above both the league average and the team
  average. Millwood’s peripherals are good–7.57 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, a homer every
  eight innings–which means that his 4.92 ERA is more a reflection of too many
  balls falling in than of a decline. Like Burrell, he’s a player who could have
  a big second half, and with the Phillies’ strong offense, that will mean wins
  on top of good rate stats. Go get him.