So, We’re Doing This?
Major League Baseball’s lockout lasted 99 days. It was, to put it lightly, a trying time to be a baseball fan. Leaked proposals from owners seemed to indicate a group ready and willing to blow up the 2022 season to make a point; a group willing to forego the windfalls they make to crush a suddenly-united workforce. It was a crash we all saw coming since the last CBA was agreed to, and yet all the more aggravating because of everything that’s happened in the game since that time. I am beyond glad that this work stoppage is over, and we can begin to survey the landscape of baseball now that Cactus League games begin in a few days.
At the same time, I remain a bit angry that it all came to this. I understand that playing hardball at the bargaining table is part of what drives a mutually acceptable deal, but it has been exasperating to come up with ideas to write about that weren’t just profanity-laced diatribes. It incinerated the hot stove league and the potential deals the M’s could make, stuffing them all into a frenetic week that the M’s already appear to be missing out on. It’s such a strange blend of emotions – excitement, relief, bitterness – but ultimately familiar ones. In a way, this was a distilled version of the M’s fan’s experience of the last several years.
Part of that anger is something that goes beyond the lockout. It’s no one’s fault, but the pandemic, the reduced minor league teams, and the lockout may be setting prospects up for an at-best uneven and at worst wholly inadequate player development experience. That the league stepped back from the brink is great, and means so much for a guy like Julio Rodriguez, I still don’t know what to make of Jarred Kelenic spending all of 2020 in a Pierce County purgatory. Did that relate to his 2021 struggles in MLB? George Kirby’s yet to crest 100 total innings as a pro despite being drafted in 2019. What does that do to his ability to reach his ceiling as a workhorse starter? I’m not saying any of these concerns will play out in some kind of worst-case-scenario; you could make the case that the lighter (in-competition) workloads will benefit players. But the point is we have no idea how this will impact player development, and for a team whose claim to contention is precisely player development of a young, homegrown core, that’s kind of a problem.
Beyond that, the M’s step out into a new landscape. I’m happy to say that the most egregiously anti-competitive aspects of the previous CBA have been reduced, or more properly, counterbalanced. While the players weren’t able to move the free agency or arbitration timelines, and while their pitch on allowing more young players to qualify for Super 2 status ultimately failed, they were able to get the league to agree to a bonus pool for the best performers among the pre-arb set. This aligns performance and pay for at least some young players, and could help teams avoid gaming service time limits so much: if that player DOES turn out the way you hope, you probably don’t mind paying the bonus. In one of the more talked-about provisions, the Commissioner won the right to implement in-game rule changes with an advance notice of just 45 days, down from one year before. This opens up the possibility that the league will ban the infield shift, unfortunately depriving the M’s of something of a competitive advantage over the last few years.
I’d like to think that it changes the risk/reward on teams tanking, or just refusing to compete for one or more seasons. Sadly, much of the incentives for that, or the insulation from the risks of tanking, come from outside the CBA: they’re baked in to baseball’s current financial picture. Right around the time the players and league came to an agreement, Apple TV announced it won the rights to an exclusive Friday doubleheader telecast. Just this weekend, streaming service Peacock announced it would broadcast 18 Sunday games. Remember that before these deals were struck, the big national broadcast deals for ESPN and Turner promised over $60 million per team per year in broadcast rights, *not* including each team’s deal with its own regional sports network. Every team gets over $100 million per year before the first fan buys a ticket, and before the first sponsorship check cashes. It’s something we’ve talked about a lot on this blog, but owners and their employees have viewed competition and on-field results as a problem to be solved, a nail to be hammered down, and by and large they have. The Reds and A’s are in the process of tear-downs, and the Nationals, despite just signing Nelson Cruz, are currently in year 2 of theirs. This remains somewhat annoying, but it does give the M’s an opportunity, particularly if they’re not able to land their top free agent targets (beyond Robbie Ray, who’s awesome).
The A’s just sent Matt Olson to Atlanta to be Freddie Freeman’s replacement. The Braves prospect package includes their top 2 prospects, Cristian Pache and Shea Langeliers, as well as a third top-10 prospect. It’s…a lot. I know the M’s system is higher ranked than Atlanta’s, and I’d probably rather have Julio than Pache, but this is still quite a haul. Chris Bassitt, however, left Oakland for a much more modest package, befitting his status as a comprehensively underrated pitcher. Sonny Gray moved from Cincinnati to Minnesota in exchange for the Twins’ top pitching prospect, Chase Petty. There are deals to be made in trade, and the M’s need to start making them.
While the M’s remain in the mix to get Kris Bryant to anchor the 3B position, I’d argue that one of their remaining needs is in the OF, and CF in particular. The news that Kyle Lewis is further along is wonderful, but the part about Lewis not being quite ready for running and in-game work tempers that considerably. Kelenic gamely filled in at CF last year, but that was clearly not his best position, and the advanced fielding numbers were hide-your-eyes bad. He’s young and improving, and that poor cameo in CF doesn’t close the door on him playing there in the future, but I think Kelenic slotting in at LF might make more sense, and ultimately, I think Lewis’ future is in an OF corner as well. With Julio Rodriguez potentially ready for a starting job…nowish, why would the M’s get a CF in trade or free agency?
Because the M’s offense was ridiculously bad last year. They remain a seriously underwhelming group, and it’s why the team’s projections are so middling despite adding the reigning Cy Young winner. The M’s simply need to get better up and down the line-up, and can’t be too concerned about taking ABs away from incumbents. If Kyle Lewis comes back earlier than expected, that’s great. He might benefit from DHing a bit to save his knee. All of that to say that one of the more important free agents remaining out there isn’t one of the big three infielders, it’s NPB import Seiya Suzuki. Sure, the risk may be higher, but with the exception of Bryant, the fit may be better (OK, OK – Carlos Correa is a fit literally anywhere). The problem is that *so many of the M’s competitors* are in a similar spot.
The Rangers spent a forture before the lockout in remaking their infield. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager replacing Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Nick Solak/some dudes is one of those rare times where the phrase “franchise-altering” is apt. They’re still looking for pitching, but their OF is a mess, with Adolis Garcia, new FA bargain-bin find Kole Calhoun, and Solak/Willie Calhoun tipped to start. That’s a disaster, and one the Rangers can’t afford while trying to sell the fanbase on near-term contention. Suzuki would be perfect there. The Red Sox are similar, if a bit further along: they have one of the game’s best young infields, and two solid options in the OF in Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo. But their third starter, Jackie Bradley Jr., is projected to “hit” to a high-70s wRC+. This below the projections for Evan White, to drive the point home for M’s fans. One could argue that the increase from Bradley to Suzuki could be vital in an absolutely stacked AL East. The Detroit Tigers are banking on 1B prospect Spencer Torkelson and OF Riley Greene to help a developing rotation, and may be a year or two away, but replacing Victor Reyes with Suzuki would get them quite a ways closer. The San Francisco Giants could use an upgrade on CF Steven Duggar, and might benefit from having an additional right-handed bat (all three of their projected OFs are southpaws). You get the idea: lots of teams need upgrades at one position, and despite a good FA market, it’s very light on OF help.
The division and the league are going to look quite different, but the M’s remain behind Houston and need to hope that the Angels’ long-heralded return to greatness holds off in one of baseball’s longest-running cruel jokes. But the M’s know about those all too well. With Oakland stepping way back, and with Texas still building, the M’s have to make a move now. If they truly believe that the projections are all wrong, or don’t take fun differential as an input, fine. They simply can’t be wrong. Sure, the lockout angering fans isn’t something you can lay at the feet of the M’s as an org (though of course they, too, have an owner), but for the sake of fans’ sanity, this long-discussed plan, this rebuild and the Game’s Best Farm System needs to win. All of that would be easier if the M’s built around that young core, and obviously the Ray acquisition is a great example of doing so. But it won’t matter unless the offense hits, and for that, the M’s need more hitters. Happily, they recognize this themselves, but they need to translate interest into signings, and the pace of signings and trades now make it all the more important that the M’s move now.
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