Game 36, Mariners at Blue Jays
Chris Flexen vs. Yusei Kikuchi, 4:07pm
The M’s head to Toronto to continue their swing through the east, but crossing the border means some teammates have to be left behind. The M’s had rearranged their rotation to give Robbie Ray the start in yesterday’s game in New York, and now we know why. Ray won’t be with the team for this series, and hasn’t been placed on the restricted list. Apparently, MLB was worried that teams would game things to essentially allow them to gain an extra player when facing Toronto, so starters who’ve pitched within the last 4 games aren’t eligible to be on the list. But as a reliever, Drew Steckenrider *was* eligible, and to the restricted list he goes. That move allows the M’s to add a pitcher, and they’ve done so by recalling old friend Roenis Elias from Tacoma.
Elias hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2019, and has spent the past two seasons hurt, but was off to a…perfectly decent start in Tacoma. I don’t think they’ll keep him around, but he’s depth and a known quantity, so it makes sense. But what about Ray? How did he avoid the vaccine while pitching in Toronto last year? Apparently, there was a waiver for professional athletes and others in Canada that expired on January 1st of 2022. That kind of makes sense, and shows why 2021 was a different story than 2020, when the Jays had to play elsewhere.
Today’s game allows the M’s to check in on yet another old friend, today’s Jays starter, Yusei Kikuchi. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but Kikuchi’s looked good, averaging 95. He’s throwing a lot of his slider, and slightly less of his hard cutter. He’s striking out more than a batter an inning. Aaaand he’s still struggling with actual runs coming across, with 15 given up in 26 innings. In a weird inversion of his Seattle tenure, his ERA isn’t too bad, though 4.15 isn’t what it used to be with baseball’s run scoring deflation. But his FIP continues to rise, this time more due to control issues than his old bugaboo of the long ball.
The Jays as a team are in something of a weird spot. Some elements of their plan have worked: Kevin Gausman would get plenty of Cy Young votes if the season ended today, Vlad Guerrero is hitting, Santiago Espinal is breaking out. But others aren’t: they didn’t get the good version of Matt Chapman, apparently, and Kikuchi may need more than a change of scenery. They’re not a bad team, but they are seriously underperforming, and with the Yankees running away with things and the Rays still…the Rays, they need to break out of that rut quickly.
So, when Kikuchi first came to Seattle, he featured a curve as his third pitch, and it occasionally looked solid – you may recall him freezing Joey Votto on one in his first spring. The results on the pitch sucked in 2019, but, well, they kind of did on his fastball, too. But in any event, he came back the next year with new mechanics and plenty more velo. But he never threw that curve again. Since that time, his slider has looked great occasionally, and bad at times (like now). Same with the cutter. I just don’t know why he hasn’t tried it again, especially as part of the problem with it originally was that he had a much shorter stride while throwing it. The stride length thing was fixed in 2020, but the curve remains MIA.
1: Toro, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Rodriguez, CF
5: Winker, LF
6: Suarez, 3B
7: Torrens, C
8: Souza, DH
9: Moore, RF
SP: Flexen
Game 34, Mariners at Mets: Another Day, Another Giants Trade
George Kirby vs. Chris Bassitt, 4:10pm
It’s been raining all day in Queens, but it sounds like they’re going to try to get this game in. George Kirby returns home to New York to take on the Mets and their big off-season pitching acquisition, Max Scher…wait, no, it’s Chris Bassitt. The former A’s (and White Sox) starter is off to a great start, and is *nearly* matching Scherzer game for game. Bassitt mixes a full five pitches to keep hitters off balance, and has slowly but surely improved his bat-missing ability as well. He’s not just a command/control guy, but he has those skills up his sleeve.
Today, the Mariners once again made a trade with the San Francisco Giants for players on the back end of each roster. A day or so after being DFA’d in the burst of transactions that happened right before the M’s flew to NY, Stuart Fairchild will head to San Francisco (or their AAA affiliate in Sacramento). In exchange, the M’s get cold hard cash and former Reds IF, Alex Blandino.
The Giants have a roster crunch, and it’s hitting the IF/utility guys hardest, but they simply cannot resist taking a look through the back end of the M’s system. Since the season began, they’ve taken a look at Mike Ford, Kevin Padlo, Donovan Walton, and now Fairchild. The M’s have received cash, but also Prelander Berroa and now Blandino. There’s so much activity between two teams, and so much of it doesn’t seem to make sense from the Giants’ point of view. They can’t roster all of these guys, and they know that, but they just can’t stop. Donovan Walton doubled for the Giants today, and good for him. I’d still be worried about joining Mike Ford on the out-of-options and/or minor-league-free-agent path of endless transactions.
So, what does Blandino do? Well, he’s got a good eye at the plate, and it’s helped him post solid walk rates throughout his career (he was a first-round pick back in 2014). The problem is…pretty much everything else. A middle infielder (primarily 2B), he’s hit for very little power, and despite that great eye, he’s struck out at a 30% clip in 279 MLB PAs. It’s true: Blandino does not chase bad pitches. But the problem is that he’ll watch strikes as well. He’s got a freakishly low swing rate overall. Back in 2018, he and Daniel Vogelbach were two of the least-frequent swingers in the game, and that approach clearly hurt Vogelbach, but since 2018, he’s started swinging…even less?! It’s part of the reason why he’s bounced around to so many teams, but at the end of the day, Vogelbach can crush the odd mistake. Blandino…well, hey, Blandino plays 2B. He’s out of options, but will probably be IF depth in Tacoma for a bit.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Rodriguez, CF
7: Ford, DH
8: Souza, RF
9: Torrens, C
SP: Kirby wooooo!
Yesterday’s 2-1 win was one of the best of the season. Pregame odds had the Mets with a nearly 70% chance of winning; odds that lopsided are very rare. They went down 1-0 in the first inning, and it looked like a boring, inevitable loss. But Marco hung tough, and the Mets pitched to Ty France, and just like that, the M’s came out with a 2-1 win. I don’t know if it’s a turning point, but it’s got to calm a lot of nerves in that clubhouse after struggling for a few weeks. It’s baseball – even bad teams will get a lot of wins, but the M’s beat one of the best teams, starting their ace, who played really well. Winning *those* games is a slightly different matter, and it was fun to see.
Levi Stoudt’s on the hill for Arkansas tonight, while Adam Macko takes the mound for Everett. Daniel Ponce de Leon faces off against Reno’s Dan Straily in Tacoma – a match-up of MLB vets.
Tacoma scored a walk-off win last night as Marcus Wilson homered to win it. It was Wilson’s second dinger of the game. Wilson’s a high-ISO, high-K OF they got off of waivers from Boston. He hits the ball hard, and has a good eye, but hasn’t really hit for average, and a bad BABIP this year has his slash line down to .215/.312/.495, which would be great in MLB, but is below average in AAA. Still just 25, it’d be good to see if he can make a bit more contact and raise his profile a bit.
San Antonio destroyed Arkansas 9-1, and Tri-City blanked Everett 8-0. Inland Empire held off Modesto 8-5, so thanks to Wilson and Tacoma for avoiding the org sweep.
Game 33, Mariners at Mets: Lots of Changes
Marco Gonzales vs. Max Scherzer, 4:10pm
Sooo, the M’s head to Flushing to take on the Mets, the team with the most wins in the National League. It was also going to be the series where Jarred Kelenic finally went back to face the team that drafted him, and perhaps bat against the big prize in the deal that sent him west: closer Edwin Diaz. This afternoon, though, we learned that wasn’t to be. Kelenic was optioned to Tacoma after starting the year .140/.219/.291. His K rate’s ballooned this year, and swing changes weren’t working or, worse, producing confusion at the plate, so the M’s will send him down to mow down PCL pitchers the way he did last year.
I’m not sure what to think about this. As others have pointed out, the pitchers he needs to figure out aren’t in AAA – they’re in the Majors. My sense is that the quality of opposition in the PCL is down a bit, as teams are more loathe to let top prospects play in a league where half of the teams have team ERAs above 5 (the Rainiers are nearly at 7) – the M’s certainly kept George Kirby away. But Mike Curto reminds me that not all teams are doing this, and clubs from Reno (Arizona) to Salt Lake (LAA) have some good pitching prospects down there. So, hopefully Kelenic will see some big-league caliber breaking stuff and firm fastballs, so he can work on his swing against something approximating big-league arms.
It’s still something of a damning move. The M’s had the (admittedly abbreviated) spring and the first month plus to help Kelenic settle in, and the kid drew raves about his improvements in not letting frustration get the better of him. But, you know, .140/.219/.291. He’d be less frustrated if they could just nudge him back towards the hitter he was at the end of 2021, but that just hasn’t happened. As with Matt Brash, it seems like it’s something of a judgment about the big league instructional staff. Maybe it’s not meant to be, and maybe it is just about getting reps out of the MLB spotlight, but it’s too bad. Kelenic still can be a great player, but as I’ve said before, I’m not sure there’s a player impacted more by the double-whammy of the pandemic and then the work stoppage.
On the other hand, you could make the case that the most important thing to consider isn’t Kelenic, but rather the M’s. This is a team that wants to contend, and cannot give starts to a guy with Kelenic’s line, however good his defense has been. The M’s may spin this as a move to bolster their own offense and competitiveness as they enter a very difficult road trip. To help do that, the M’s have brought up Steven Souza, the former big leaguer with Tampa and others, whom they signed as a minor league free agent in the spring. Also up is Mike Ford, the now extremely well-traveled 1B who’d been up in April, but didn’t see game action (before being traded to SF and getting a game with the Giants).
To make room, the M’s have churned through the back of their roster again, DFA’ing Stuart Fairchild and, in something of a surprise, Yohan Ramirez, the former Rule 5 guy they brought in from the Astros org. Ramirez had a superficially good ERA in 2020 and 2021, but FIP thought it was a mirage, and seemed to be proved right after Ramirez struggled mightily in April with Seattle. Still, as a very hard-thrower with a decent slider, I thought he may stick around longer. Danny Young will head down to AAA and take Ramirez’s spot with the R’s, while Sergio Romo’s finished his rehab stint and will re-join the Mariners in New York.
It’s a great pitching match-up between contrasting styles tonight, as consummate power-pitcher Max Scherzer faces off with change-up maven, Marco Gonzales. Scherzer will turn 38 this season, but remains a top-tier starter thanks to a great combination of a four-seam fastball and a death-dealing slider that’s been his out pitch for many years. But as Jarrett Seidler and others have pointed out over the years, Scherzer doesn’t even throw his best pitch to lefties. Not like “infrequently,” more like “never.” As a low-slot righty with a FB/SL mix, how does he avoid platoon splits? By utilizing a completely different repertoire. To lefties, he pairs his fastball with a good change-up and a cutter. He’s almost a two-pitch guy to righties, who have still not figured out the slider. To lefties, he mixes in more pitches and keeps them off-balance.
To be clear: this approach does not *eliminate* platoon splits. He’s way better vs. righties. But it means he’s still effective against lefties, and you can’t just stack your line-up and hope to win. Marco Gonzales actually has equal platoon splits for his career, but the wOBA of both lefties and righties is a lot higher than it is with Scherzer. That’s not to say Gonzales is chopped liver, but I think even he would allow he just doesn’t have the top-end stuff that Scherzer has. Even though Marco can throw change-ups to righties and cutters and curves to lefties, the fact that he’s a lefty makes it easier on teams to game-plan, and the fact he throws 89 makes it easier on individual batters. Still, the one similarity for both starters is a top-of-the-charts competitiveness.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Rodriguez, CF
7: Ford, DH
8: Souza, RF
9: Torrens, C
SP: Gonzales
The M’s face the Mets for three, and then head to Toronto for a series against the Jays. It’s a pretty tough swing, even though they get to end up with a series against the struggling Red Sox. The Sox remain a talented group, so I don’t think those are easy wins by any stretch.
The M’s top 31 prospects went live at Fangraphs today. Disappointing but understandable to see 2020 draftees like Zach DeLoach and Kaden Polocovich tumble, but glad to see some of the other international guys move up. I’d have Joseph Hernandez on the list, and probably Devin Sweet, but that’s just me. I might have Isaiah Campbell on there and drop out some of the low-minors lottery tickets. But hey, they know more than me!
Game 32, Phillies at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Bailey Falter, 12:40pm
A day after the Rainiers had a mid-week matinee, the M’s have one. Looks like a nice day for it, too. Wish I could be there.
After holding on for a much-needed 5-4 win, the M’s face spot-starter Bailey Falter with a chance to win the series. This is kind of a fascinating match-up between two starters who get the most out of a fastball that looks, on paper, somewhat underwhelming. Both have elite extension that helps that fastball play up, and both are still trying to figure out what secondaries will play best at the big league level. But because Logan Gilbert has 4 extra mph on that heater, he’s just in a far better position to make it work.
Bailey Falter throws a *lot* of fastballs. He’s about 70% for his brief MLB career, and it’s a pitch he leaned on a lot in the minors, where he was often a strikeout maven. He’s only thrown 35+ innings at the AAA level, but he racked up an impressive *54* strikeouts in that time. How does he miss so many bats? Well, it’s not velo. He’s been 90-91 this year, and was 91-92 last year. It’s not spin; Falter has one of the lowest spin rates I’ve seen on a four-seamer, down below Justus Sheffield’s before the M’s shifted him to a sinker. That lack of spin extends to his primary breaking ball too, a slider at under 2,000 rpm. That’s at least superficially similar to Gilbert, who, while not freakishly low, is nothing special from a spin point of view (and we can certainly debate whether that’s anything to be concerned about). But Falter gets 7.4′ of extension at release, exactly the same as Gilbert, with today’s starters tied for 3rd most in MLB.
That extension causes the pitch to play up. Falter got some K’s at the MLB level last year despite a pitch that Stuff+ thinks is a recipe for disaster. He’s only thrown 5 innings thus far, but it’s possible that Stuff+/Pitchingbot was onto something: in a tiny sample, he’s simply not getting any swings and misses. The slight drop in velo may be a part of it, but I’m not convinced given that he threw only 91 last year. Extension may help mess up batters’ timing, as the pitch gets on them quicker than they expect. But I wonder if that timing is teachable, and if batters can fairly quickly adapt. Thankfully, they’ve not done so against Gilbert, but then Gilbert has better secondaries. I’d think it’d be very tough for Falter the 2nd/3rd time through the order, but Falter’s not going to see the 3rd time through the order. Hell, these days, essentially no one does.
Except Reid Detmers, who tossed a no-hitter last night for the Angels against the Rays. It gives me no pleasure to report this, but the Angels appear to have some pitching this year for the first time in quite a while. They’re 21-11 with a low-3 ERA despite a bottom-10 K rate. Their defense isn’t great, but it doesn’t need to be with what is currently the game’s best offense. They’re going to be tough to overtake.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Rodriguez, CF
4: Crawford, SS
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Torrens, DH
7: Winker, LF
8: Moore, RF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Gilbert
Winker drops down and Kelenic drops out with the left-handed Falter on the mound. JP Crawford makes his first-ever start in clean-up.
Taylor Dollard’s on the mound for Arkansas today. He won the Texas league pitcher of the week in early May. He’s not getting as many K’s as he did in A-ball, but he’s dramatically improved his wOBA and average-against.
Tacoma’s hosting Reno, and could really use a win. Yesterday’s loss dropped them to 9-22, the lowest winning percentage in the high-minors (AA/AAA) with a AAA-worst -65 run differential. C’mon Rainiers!
Everett is last in the Northwest League, and they too have the worst run differential in their circuit. With guys like Spencer Packard off to a hot start, run scoring isn’t their problem. It’s that they’ve allowed dozens more runs than any other team.
Modesto’s the one affiliate with a positive run differential, but they’re still below .500. The system’s off to a bit of a slow start, I guess is the takeaway here.
There are always bright spots, however.
Joseph Hernandez of Modesto’s putting his name out there, leading the Cal league in ERA and striking out 29 in 25 IP.
Taylor Dollard doesn’t yet have enough innings, but may get there today. His ERA is safely under 1 in 18 IP thus far.
The aforementioned Spencer Packard leads the NWL in OPS at 1.023, over 100 points higher than the second place guy. He leads the league in HRs, too.
Robert Perez leads the Cal league in HRs with 8, the most in the system.
Game 31, Phillies at Mariners: It’s Early
Robbie Ray vs. Aaron Nola, 6:40pm
The M’s ugly loss to Philadelphia brought a *lot* of angry comments and recriminations of the front office. I’ve been critical of the FO, and thought the team wasn’t built to contend with the elite in the AL, but even I think the outpouring of emotion in early/mid-May is a bit much. No, the M’s aren’t anywhere near as good as they looked when sweeping the Royals, but no, they’re nowhere near as punchless and overmatched as they’ve looked at times on this homestand.
Yesterday was the result of a bad day for Flexen meeting up with a very good Phillies line-up. It was also the result of a line-up getting smothered by an inconsistent pitcher. It’s not pretty, but it happens. Fortunately, we’ve got a great pitching match-up today, and a win probably helps everyone chill out a bit.
This isn’t to say that the comments about the line-up or the roster construction aren’t warranted: they are. There are red flags here, but I just don’t see this line-up being one of the worst in the league. By the same token, it’s more clear than ever that if the line-up was going to bash down the doors to the playoffs, pretty much everything would have to go right. Not everything has gone right, from Jarred Kelenic’s continued struggles to the slow start from Jesse Winker, and thus the M’s find themselves at 13-17.
They’re 13-17 after a rough patch of the schedule. If they were 15-15 or 16-14, we’d probably see this in a very different light, and that’s just not that far away. They need to get healthy, and get another batter hot – another insane stretch for France or Crawford – and you’re back to looking at a good-but-not-great team, which is still what I think the M’s are.
The problem remains that many of their rivals sought to make themselves into great teams, and it’s simply hard to compete with that for 162 games. The Angels have been doing the M’s a solid for at least 10 years, amassing some of the greatest players I’ve ever seen, and doing nothing with them. But you can’t count on that forever, and they are, sadly, looking pretty formidable now. Minnesota’s weird great-one-year,-bad-the-next pattern is holding, but as this is an even numbered year, they’re good for now. Injuries have hampered them, but they picked up a good amount of pitching depth, which can help them get past a Buxton IL trip, or, as we heard today, an elbow injury to Chris Paddack.
By design, the M’s didn’t add depth from outside the org, and will look to improve the players who are already here. That’s a fine plan if you can actually do it; the Rays can, and the Yankees often can, but I’m not sure it’s actually the M’s strength. They think it is, but I’m not convinced yet, not with Kelenic struggling, or with Brash’s quick demotion, or Evan White, or Justus Sheffield, etc. Look, even I’m wading back into the doom and gloom stuff. Sorry. It’s a gorgeous day, the M’s are playing at home, and they are, somehow, still a fun team to watch (mostly).
Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phils, a veteran righty who throws from a low arm slot and has two seriously plus pitches. He throws a four-seamer at 91-93, nothing amazing, but it sets up his curve and change. Both pitches rack up ground balls *and* whiffs, which is a pretty neat trick if you can pull it off. They give him legitimate weapons against both lefties and righties, and have allowed him to essentially eliminate platoon splits, even as kind of a sidewinding righty. Lefties *should* enjoy facing him, but they most certainly do not. It helps that he can command all of his pitches (he also has a sinker and a cutter), and he’s fine throwing all of them to RHBs and LHBs alike; he’ll throw righty-righty change-ups, and everyone gets a steady dose of the curve, which is probably his best overall pitch.
All told, there’s no mystery why Nola is able to consistently post excellent strikeout rates. He mixes pitches, and mixes in two legitimate out-pitches. How do the M’s beat him? The answer’s the same for so many pitchers in the modern game: hit home runs. Despite the high GB%, Nola’s yielded a lot of HRs in his career. In the early going in 2022, he’s giving up even more. The same was true of Ranger Suarez, and the M’s couldn’t figure HIM out, but still. If you guess right against Nola, you’ve got a chance to do damage.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Rodriguez, CF
7: Toro, DH
8: Kelenic, RF
9: Torrens, C
SP: Ray
The Rainiers lost a day game today to Reno, 8-3. Darren McCaughan took the loss. McCaughan had an amazing/improbable run to the majors, shoving in AA in 2019, then shaking off the lost 2020 season to hold his own in Tacoma and make his MLB debut in 2021. But he’s off to a slow start in what remains just a brutal environment for pitchers in the PCL.
Arkansas is facing San Antonia in the Texas League with Stephen Kolek on the hill.
Everett is in the Tri-Cities, and give the ball to Bryce Miller, the former 4th round pick who’s off to a great start for the AquaSocks.
Modesto hosts Inland Empire tonight.
Game 30, Phillies at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Ranger Suarez, 6:40pm
George Kirby was absolutely electric. From his first inning through the 6th, he was almost untouchable. It’s a strange thing, given his high exit velocity, but if you saw the ABs, you know that he wasn’t giving up warning-track line drives. They were liners to the outfield, or normal fly balls rendered harmless by the new ball. Even the expected stats yawned at a few balls over 100mph. Crucially, he walked none and still racked up plenty of strikeouts and swinging strikes.
When we saw him in the Spring, I was worried that despite that big fastball, he couldn’t get that many swings and misses on his best secondary: his slider. We’re one game into his MLB career, and, well, that’s still pretty much the case. He got one swing and miss on ten swings against that slider. It’s a low-spin pitch, and generally doesn’t seem to fool batters all that much. But the point isn’t that he’s doomed. It may be a rare case where a so-so breaking ball is helping to make his fastball play up.
Many analysts have talked about the reverse, where a superficially “normal” or “average” fastball helps a pitcher’s secondary stuff. I think Shane Bieber would be the guy who I think exemplifies this best, but Corey Kluber, perhaps Robbie Ray, and now Kevin Gausman might be other examples. Their best pitch *isn’t* their fastball, but in where and how they use it, they keep batters from sitting on their best offering. Well, Kirby’s best offering is clearly his heater, as shown by the fact he got 13 swinging strikes on 27 swings. But by utilizing his slider (and change, and a few curves), he kept batters off balance. If they were guessing, they’d guess wrong. Thus, both his fastball and slider generated called strikes, too.
The thing is: there’s nothing really TO Kirby’s fastball beyond the velo. His extension is good, but it’s not Logan Gilbert-good. It’s got lower-than-average rise, but given his sub-6′ release point and low spin, I don’t know that any batter would expect it to. This is one of those cases, perhaps, where a lot of these traditional markers can help. The artificial intelligence Stuff+ models that Eno Sarris of the Athletic uses, or the one built by Cameron Grove, look at the characteristics of successful fastballs and use them to create “Stuff” grades for MLB pitches. I wondered what they’d think of Kirby’s heater, and, well, Grove’s isn’t terribly impressed *despite* high-octane heat.
Again, I don’t think this is any kind of death knell to Kirby. Batters are going to have to make contact against him before we worry about anything. But I think it highlights the fact that we still have a lot to learn. There’s something going on, something batters aren’t picking up on, with Kirby. I have no idea what it is, and I’m somewhat encouraged by the fact that these machine learning apps can’t quite figure it out either.
I was reminded of that again this morning, when former Mariner Nestor Cortes, Jr. took a no-hitter into the 8th against an admittedly not-exactly-great Texas line-up. Cortes struck out 11 in 7 1/3 brilliant innings, his second game of the year with at least 11 Ks (he struck out 12 Orioles earlier). If you remember him at all from his 7 2/3 IP Mariner career, it’s probably him turning around and watching a ball fly out of T-Mobile; he allowed 13 runs on 6 HRs in those 7 2/3 IP. He was one of the least-successful M’s in recent years, and that, readers, is *Saying Something.* While he varies his release point, wind-up, timing, and mixes pitches, he throws about 89-90, and you can make the case that the game just doesn’t have a place for guys like that anymore. Except that’s clearly wrong, as Cortes made extremely minor changes and now has a sub-2 ERA with 11 K’s per 9 through five starts. We saw it yesterday, with Ryan Yarbrough holding the M’s scoreless despite averaging in the mid-80s with his cutter, and having a fastest pitch a full 10mph slower than Kirby’s.
It doesn’t always work, and there’s less margin for error, perhaps. But despite all we know about the importance of velo, of raw stuff, of swerving, physics-defying pitches, there’s still something about effectively messing with timing. And I’m glad to see it.
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia’s starter tonight, is an interesting case. He’d been a career reliever without a blazing fastball, but armed with a solid four-pitch mix including four-seam, sinker, slider, and change. He was having his best season yet in 2021 when the Phillies finally made what seems, in hindsight, kind of an obvious move. So, the guy averaging 92-93, but with four pitches, might be better off h- or more valuable to us – as a starter and not a reliever.
So they plopped him into the rotation, and for the last two months of the season, he was a revelation. It culminated with a complete game shutout in his second-to-last outing, and it seemed like he was a key contributor for a Phillies team that wanted to compete in the East. All of his expected stats looked amazing. No, he didn’t have trendy high-spin pitches, but everything seemed to sink, and miss barrels. He had a good K rate, but an even better xBA or xSLG%, thanks to his, uh, ability to avoid hard contact.
2022 has not been kind to Mr. Suarez. All of those expected stats that were in the 95-99th percentile last year? They’re around 20th percentile now. His K rate has gone through an even more dramatic transition, and he’s now officially one of the league’s lowest K pitchers. His walks are up, and despite the general trend in the league, he’s allowing far more home runs. It’s just been a bad, bad year thus far. The AI still likes Suarez’s sinker far more than Kirby’s four-seamer, but I’m not sure that any living batter would agree with that.
Now, let’s be clear: like Kirby, Suarez’s best pitch is his fastball. Er, both of them. His slider hasn’t done a whole lot, but a big part of that is the fact that as a (mostly) reliever, he hasn’t faced a lot of lefties. He’s been lights out against them his whole career. What the move to the rotation was supposed to show was that his change-up was good enough to reliably retire righties, and that part just hasn’t happened yet.
His change has garnered good whiff rates, but when batters hit it, they’ve done some damage. I never like to see change-ups that essentially mirror a pitcher’s sinker, but that’s what Suarez does: it’s got the same horizontal movement, and *nearly* the same vertical movement, just slower. That *can* work, especially if the velocity gap is 10-12 or more mph. But Suarez always had a firmer change, at 84 or so, so only about 8 mph lower. This year, he’s shrunk that gap even more, firing almost Felix-style 86 mph changes. Unfortunately, the results have looked a lot more like late-period Felix rather than the royal/classical Felix of 2010-2014.
1: Toro, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Rodriguez, CF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Torrens, DH
7: Moore, SS
8: Kelenic, RF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Flexen
The M’s are going to be a bit short with Tom Murphy out with a shoulder injury.
The Rainiers won a slugfest in Albuquerque, knocking 5 homers in a 14-10 win.
Frisco knocked Levi Stoudt around a bit in an 8-2 win.
Everett hit three dingers, but couldn’t stop Vancouver from scoring in a 13-8 loss.
William Fleming struck out only 2 in 5 innings, taking the hard luck loss in Modesto’s 3-2 loss to Fresno.
Game 29, Rays at Mariners: Kirby’s Turn
George Kirby vs. Ryan Yarbrough, 1:10pm
After Matt Brash fired 1-2 electrifying games, he lost control of the strike zone. The M’s decided first that he should work on finding his control again in the minors, and second, that he should do so in a relief role. I’ve laid out why I disagree with both, but what’s done is done. To take his place, the M’s have turned to their top pitching prospect George Kirby. The righty/former first-rounder makes his big league debut today.
Kirby has always had excellent control. He famously didn’t walk anyone in his short-season debut. But more intriguingly, word got out from the alternative site in 2020 lockdowns that Kirby’s velo had shot up to the high 90s. That proved true, and he spent 2021 overwhelming high-A and AA. The M’s have been exceedingly cautious with his workload, so he still hasn’t thrown 100 pro innings *combined*. But when he’s been out there, he’s been great.
Of course, so was Brash, and in fact Brash out pitched him both in AA last year and again this spring in Peoria, which is why Brash started with the big club while Kirby headed back to Arkansas. But Kirby does have one clear advantage over Brash.
Brash had a far higher K rate and a lower hit rate (and thus ERA) than Kirby, but he walked more batters. Nothing crazy, but the walk rate was elevated. The best way I think about this swap is that the M’s have decided that fixing control is not something they’re up to doing, at least not during the season. Thus, they’ll bring in the guy who, whatever else he may do, doesn’t have that problem. They can work on other things to get the most out of that velocity, but they (hopefully) don’t have to worry about a super-high walk rate or ton of 3-1 counts.
The trade off has been that when batters guess right, they’ve been able to put good swings on Kirby. He got hit at times during spring training, and has yielded 3 HRs thus far in a pretty tough hitting environment. That’s not to say he’ll struggle; it may be that this approach with his stuff is just an objectively better bet at this level than Brash’s K’s and BB’s sampler pack.
I still think the best version of Brash is probably the better pitcher, but I do have to acknowledge that the best version of Kirby is a flat out more likely outcome. It’s not a sure thing; nothing about pitching is. But he’s earned this shot, even while I disagree with how everything played out. The M’s need one of their prospects to be good, and to be good *right now.* Lets hope it’s Kirby.
The righty out of Elon touches 99 with his four-seam fastball. He pairs that with a slider, curve, and change. The fastball and curve grade out best. The curve isn’t the high-spin, huge movement monster that Brash’s two breaking balls could be, but then, that movement carried them out of the strike zone.
One thing to watch will be his platoon splits. Kirby has been excellent against lefties overall, but when he’s yielded hard contact and XBHs, they’ve mostly been to lefties.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Rodriguez, CF
4: Suarez, DH
5: Winker, LF
6: Toro, 3B
7: Torrens, C
8: Kelenic, RF
9: Moore, SS
SP: Kirby, woooo!
Go Mariners.
Game 27, Rays at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Matt Wisler/Josh Fleming, 6:40pm
Logan Gilbert is off to a blazingly fast start, with a Pitcher of the Month in his pocket and an ERA under 1. I’ve talked a bit about an improved slider that’s helped, even as his K% and swinging strike rate have actually declined. Well, it’s actually weirder than that: Logan Gilbert allows more contact than just about any starter.
By called-strike-plus-whiff rate or CSW%, Gilbert ranks 10th-lowest among qualified starters, lower than Jose Quintana, Jordan Lyles and Cole Irvin (but just ahead of Chris Flexen and, uh, Robbie Ray). By contact%, he’s at 15th. This isn’t an instant red flag. You can be decent and have stats like these; he’s hanging really close to Justin Verlander of all people on these metrics. But if I asked you how Logan Gilbert does it, what would you say?
It’s not through pinpoint control. His walk rate’s solid, but he throws fewer pitches in the zone than Matt Brash. He allows too many well-struck balls, though in his favor, rather few barrels (ideally-hit balls). The expected stats think he’s good, but not great, though the expected stats are still having a rough month-plus. He has good velocity, but poor spin. He allows very few balls in play, but has to throw far more pitches-per-plate-appearance than his teammates, and especially the pure put-it-in-play guys like Marco and Flexen.
The slider and curve really do look different, and his average breaking ball (and change-up) velocity is up markedly this year, even while his fastball remains exactly where it was in 2021. I think that’s part of the answer. Even setting aside movement, a firmer breaking ball might help keep batters off balance, as it may be harder to square up, even if it’s not any more/less hard to make contact with. If that was true, we’d see a lot of foul balls (aaaaand we do; he gets more fouls than other M’s) and we’d see a low BABIP (aaaand we do). I’m not convinced that’s sustainable, necessarily, but I think what it means is that he’ll regress towards a mean that’s lower than the league average. That is, he’s been out-of-his-mind good thus far, and when his insane strand rate and BABIP luck runs out, they won’t go to the (already low) league mean, but perhaps somewhere lower than that.
That’d be a neat trick: throw a bunch of balls just off the plate that batters won’t miss, but still can’t resist. But the slight problem is that he’s not actually inducing a lot of off-the-plate swings. Even Chris Flexen, perhaps the best example of this strategy, gets more. Gilbert is getting a lot of these slight miss-hits on in-zone fastballs, which seems like a tough game to win, but his extension and the resulting sneakiness of his fastball seems to allow it.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Toro, DH
7: Rodriguez, CF
8: Moore, RF
9: Murphy, C
SP: Gilbert
There’s a lot of talk about the strikeout rate in the game, and whether the slight drop in April was anything meaningful, or just the result of the universal designated hitter. I think we’ll have to wait till the summer months to know for sure, but I am struck by the fact that the batting leaderboard shows so many low-K hitters right now. There are a lot of them, and a lot of formerly-high K guys like Matt Olson. I have a hypothesis that part of what’s driving the K-rate rise in baseball is baseball’s roster management. That is, I think qualified batters’ K rates are rising more slowly, but that replacement-level players are extremely vulnerable to high K rates. There’s also the obvious point that guys running 40% K rates aren’t likely to get enough PAs to qualify.
Back in 2009, qualified batters’ K rate was about 1.8 percentage points lower than the league average. Nowadays, it’s closing in on a 3 percentage point gap. It’s too early to say what it’ll be this year, but it’s over 2 percentage points already. Relievers, the source of so much of the roster moves in baseball, are generally selected for their ability to miss bats, and their role allows them to do this: throw as hard as possible for 15-20 pitches. Young players and role players may be selected for a bunch of other characteristics, from defense to power, and thus if they run K rates over 30% for a month, no one bats an eye. And players can still be effective with high K rates, as Fernando Tatis Jr. shows. But there were fewer players on the year-end fWAR top 15 with K rates over 20% last year than there were in, say, 2017. Does that mean anything? We’ll see. Willians Astudillo was not the turning point many wanted him to be, but maybe Steven Kwan and Nick Madrigal will run after Astudillo walked. No, just kidding, Astudillo *never* walked.
Modesto was the only affiliate to win yesterday with Edwin Arroyo, Jonatan Clase, Robert Perez, and Walking Cabrera going yard. Tacoma’s in Salt Lake today, Arkansas is in Frisco, Texas, Everett’s winning currently in Vancouver, and Modesto’s back at it in Fresno tonight.
Game 26, Rays at Mariners: Snap Decisions
Robbie Ray vs. Shane McLanahan, 6:40pm
Sooo, not a good road trip. After yesterday’s easy win, the Astros completed a sweep of the M’s, going from a game back to two games ahead of the M’s. Worse, those wins looked effortless: two shutouts, with the M’s not really threatening to score, and then jumping all over Matt Brash, allowing Justin Verlander to go on cruise control. That’s not going to end well.
The M’s offense looked atrocious, but there they are at 6th by Fangraphs’ wRC+ measure. No, they’re not going to confuse anyone for the Blue Jays or Yankees, but they’re more than holding their own, right? Well, yes, kind of? The issue is that their more average-ish wOBA – just the results of their plate appearances – is 15th. But, as all smart fans know, park factors are a thing. wRC+ applies them and tries to account for opposition. Playing Tampa and Houston a lot is going to be an issue, after all. But the park factor is clearly playing a large role in getting a 15th-ranked wOBA up to a 6th ranked wRC+. The question is, should it?
That may come as a surprise after I spent all of last year screaming that the park effect for Seattle wasn’t big *enough* and that something was going on that made it all but impossible to get base hits at T-Mobile. I’d hoped that the introduction of humidors everywhere, and not just in certain parks (like Seattle’s) might ameliorate this. Well, good news: it did. The problem is that it’s turned everywhere into Seattle. Zach Crizer looks at the league-wide trends over at Yahoo Sports, and the numbers are stark. Slugging percentage on fly balls is down, and it’s down dramatically at the launch angles that previously produced home runs and doubles (around 25-30 degrees). M’s batters have known that there are no doubles to be had in that range, at least at home, but T-Mobile hasn’t been that bad of a park to homer in. That’s where the addition of the draggier baseball comes in. The new ball takes away the one thing that wasn’t impossible at home, and the humidors take away XBH on the road.
Every park now plays similarly. Sure, there are still differences. Coors field is still an outlier, and always will be. But the gap seems smaller, as evidenced by the fact that run scoring is down so dramatically and uniformly (uh, except when Cincinnati is pitching…yeesh). The M’s pitching has looked solid overall, and I don’t think they’re as bad as their FIP-based WAR makes them look. But by the same token, this is not a top-10 offense, or at least, they have not performed like one. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot to be done about that now, but I would seriously love to see Jesse Winker get hot.
The M’s response to the roadtrip was to do what Scott Servais said they wouldn’t do: make a snap decision to demote Matt Brash. This is a move that many fans I typically agree with have applauded/called for, so I think I should talk about why I don’t. Clearly, the M’s needed to do something with Brash, who wasn’t keeping them in games the last few starts. The key was continually falling behind hitters, and thus throwing in hitters’ counts. His elevated walk rate was more proof that he couldn’t find the zone. But here’s the thing: out of the Mariners’ five starting pitchers, Brash’s Zone%, the percentage of his pitches that are in the zone, is right in the middle. Sure, 39.9% is low overall, and not a great sign. But Logan Gilbert is at 38.5%, and “command guy” Chris Flexen has one of the lowest Zone% in baseball at 36.3%.
The problem is how his pitches out of the zone (and in it) get bunched together. He’ll throw several strikes, then start the next hitter 3-0. He seems to not know how to get a strike when he needs one. A part of this is that he seems to be telegraphing his pitches, which is why a guy with his death-dealing slider has the lowest O-Swing% of the M’s starters. On the plus side, he’s getting more called strikes (haters would point out that they’re probably on 3-0 pitches), and he’s got the lowest contact rate. These are things that take tweaks, not overhauls.
But why isn’t it better to do that in the minors? Well, part of it is that the Pacific Coast League was essentially broken by the major league ball, and is still a run-scoring paradise. As a result, it’s not really a developmental league right now. It’s great for rehabbing, and it’s not bad for a few months of confidence-restoration in struggling players, but there’s a reason Tacoma’s rotation looks the way it does, and why the M’s have essentially tried to have starters skip it or almost skip it.
As a result of *that*, it’s not clear that trying to work on hiding the ball or adjusting release point would be better done there, or frankly, even at AA. Brash has to work on deceiving major league hitters. He’s already demonstrated an ability to do this at the minor league level; the major leagues have selected for people who can do this at an elite level. The M’s trainers and coaches have been selected for their ability to make adjustments too, I would think, and should get to work on this.
I think people like Darren Gossler are right that there are things beyond the mechanics that the M’s can do; I think he should throw a lot more change-ups too. But I’m still against the demotion, just as, say, Kyle Boddy is not a fan of demoting Reds’ phenom Hunter Greene, who’s struggling just as much with Cincinnati. Some things you just have to do in the big leagues, as Julio Rodriguez demonstrates, I think. As much as Jarred Kelenic is struggling now, I think the same applies. The M’s tried the “work it out in AAA” thing last year, and he went down and dominated from day 1…it just didn’t apply in the big leagues, and it’s often not clear why we should expect it to.
The thing that’s brought us M’s fans back into agreement though, is the short-sighted move to have Brash work out of the pen, so as to more quickly contribute at the big league level. That…that’s just dumb. The M’s rotation is now out of whack, and I think everyone can see that if Brash can cut the walks and pitching-from-behind, he’s easily their #2 or #3 starter. Utilizing him as, say, the third or fourth guy out of the pen could enable him to contribute quickly, but also to contribute quite little. The M’s lost Matt Festa to injury, but fundamentally, they do not have a problem at set-up guy. Munoz, Sewald, Steckenrider is plenty good. Would getting an upgrade over Misiewicz or the current replacements for Festa be nice? Sure, I suppose. Every little bit helps. But this seems like a ridiculous waste of Brash’s undeniable talent, and there’s no guarantee it’s 1) a move likely to work more quickly and 2) that Brash will be able to avoid control lapses in short, high-intensity outings. I just don’t get it.
1: Toro, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Crawford, SS
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Rodriguez, CF
6: Winker, LF
7: Torrens, C
8: Moore, RF
9: Frazier, DH
SP: Ray
Revamped line-up to try and get the bats going again. They were going just fine on the last homestand, so we’ll see how they look now.
Game 24, Mariners at Astros
Chris Flexen vs. Cristian Javier, 5:10pm
Too much going on in the world to really dig into an early-May ball game, but the one legitimately positive story today is that Kyle Lewis will begin a rehab assignment with Tacoma tonight. The M’s said he’s been playing back to back games in extended Spring Training, so he could move up quickly if he’s able to move pain free in the outfield. It’d be so much fun to see the dream OF of Lewis/Rodriguez/Kelenic.
Cristian Javier, somewhat surprisingly relegated to the bullpen last year, is back in Houston’s rotation. The righty is a fastball/slider guy, with a high-spin four-seamer at 94, thrown almost exclusively up in the zone, and a slurvy high-70s slider that he’s increasingly comfortable throwing to lefties as well as righties. That’s been huge for him, because despite good overall numbers as a starter in 2020 and a low-ish ERA last year, he’s had some platoon split issues.
What’s weird is that lefties were never able to hit that slider, but he’d bail them out by throwing a slower curve and a functional change-up. And, of course, doubling down on elevated fastballs. This season, he’s just throwing the slider an awful lot more, and lefties are still pretty flummoxed by it. He’s getting a bit more horizontal sweep, and it looks like it might benefit from seam shifted wake, too. His fastball, too, is a good pitch. It gets plenty of whiffs, but also generates poorly-struck fly balls and pop-ups, as batters just get under it. It’s been even more effective this year, as he’s maintained the velo he gained working out of the pen, and he’s getting more vertical rise on it through a slight improvement in its spin efficiency.
He’s always had a high strand rate and low BABIP because he allows so many fly balls, but then, he’s also been quite vulnerable to home runs. Not all of that elevated contact is mis-hit. As such, he’s essentially the poster boy for a pitcher who’d benefit from a ball with more drag than previous iterations. And, yes, he’s off to a brilliant start thanks to a month with a HR rate less than half his career average.
1: Frazier, LF
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, DH
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Rodriguez, CF
7: Toro, 2B
8: Kelenic, RF
9: Murphy, C
SP: Flexen
Tacoma opens a series in Salt Lake, where they’ll take on Ryan Smith and the Bees.
Arkansas is in Frisco. Levi Stoudt gets the start for the Travs in game 1.
Adam Macko starts for Everett, who open a series in Vancouver.
Modesto’s first game in Fresno didn’t go so well, as they lost 9-3 despite 7 Ks and no walks in 4 IP (3R, 1 HR) from William Fleming, who’s up to 30 Ks vs. 7 walks in 23 1/3 IP.