Game 4, Mariners at Twins
Chris Flexen vs. Dylan Bundy, 4:40pm
It’s a little early yet to talk about surprises or good/bad signs, but I have to say I’m impressed with the patience the M’s have shown at the plate. Through three games *against pitchers with good control* they are, as a team, drawing walks at a 13% clip, second best in baseball. No, that alone doesn’t ensure overall success – #1 is Arizona, a team that can’t hit – but it’s a very good sign that they’re not being overly aggressive and getting themselves out. The pitching staff has, overall, done a pretty good job of this too, and if they can just figure out how to keep the Twins in the ballpark, they’ll have something.
Mitch Haniger’s 2 HR and “I only hit XBH” approach has gotten some attention, but the guy who’s impressed me the most has been JP Crawford. I think I’ve been pretty consistently negative about Crawford, who is clearly a solid MLB starter, but just without the upside at the plate that so many other teams seem to have at SS. A big part of that has been good but not great bat control and an extremely underpowered swing. Out of 132 qualified hitters last year, Crawford’s barrel rate (the rate at which he hit the ball more or less perfectly) ranked 126th, just beating out new double play partner Adam Frazier, who ranked 130th. His average exit velocity ranked 120th (Frazier was at 129th), too. In 2020, Crawford’s exit velo ranked 134th out of 142. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard.
Or at least, he didn’t use to. Crawford hit *two* balls over 100 MPH yesterday. In 2021, he had only 10 such balls in all of April, but he picked up speed (ha) late in the year: he hit 20 in August and 17 in September. He’s already drawn 3 walks against a single K, and if he can hit the ball harder, he’s got a much better chance of being a real contributor at the plate. His defense allows him to contribute even with a weaker bat, but weak contact is not generally conducive to a high BABIP. His BABIP was quite good last year, and that’s what allowed him to post a league-average batting line. A bit more pop and a bit more of underlying strength powering that BABIP and you’ve got more of a consistent 3-4 win player as opposed to a 2-3 win guy.
Today, the M’s face yet another Twins reclamation project, Dylan Bundy. Bundy’d been one of the most hyped pitching prospects around before settling in as a below-average starter with Baltimore. A brief 2020 season with the Angels was revelatory, as he finally found a way to avoid HRs, and his secondaries looked sharper than ever before. He used the same mix – primarily a straight four-seamer in the low-90s, a good slider, and a change and curve for left-handed bats – but the results were uniformly better. But he couldn’t carry it over into 2021, when nothing quite seemed to work. His pitches *looked* the same, but batters punished them whereas they swung through them the year before.
A few days ago, it looked like the Twins may have made some slight tweaks to Sonny Gray’s approach, with a few more four-seamers than sinkers. It’ll be interesting to see if those changes stick around, and what they might try to do with Bundy (and Chris Paddack). More sinkers, trying to avoid dingers from a pitcher whose career’s kind of been defined by home run troubles and a park that allows a lot of ’em? Or fewer fastballs altogether? It’s going to take time to see if any variation is the result of intentional changes and which are just rust; one thing I’ve seen thus far is that pitchers don’t seem quite ready for the regular season yet. Walks are up a bit league wide, and pitchers aren’t yet able to go 5-6 innings, let alone 7-8.
1: Frazier, DH
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, RF
5: Toro, 2B
6: Suarez, 3B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Rodriguez, CF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Flexen
It’s much too early to worry much about Julio Rodriguez – he’s out-hitting Marcus Semien and Enrique Hernandez thus far – but it is stunning to see Cleveland’s rookie OF Steven Kwan’s early success. With a triple and two walks, he’s now 9-14 with 5 walks and no strikeouts in the early going. Not only does he not have any K’s, he’s yet to swing and miss at any *pitch* this year. Not a bad start for the ex-Oregon State Beaver.
It’s too early to panic, but man is Jerry going to hear it if there’s significant pitching regression and the developmental system doesn’t give Seattle hitters this year.
All their eggs are in one basket: inner-organizational reliance and they need these eggs to hatch.
Exactly. I’m all for prospect development and giving the kids opportunity, but if they don’t cut it (or even if there’s a couple of injuries) then this team is toast.
“Backup plan? We don’t need no stinkin’ backup plan!”
All that said, I am immensely excited for the Matt Brash debut this afternoon. That slider is just ridiculous. Please be good Matt and please stay healthy.