Game 70, Twins at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Bailey Ober, 7:10pm
After a great comeback win and last night’s dominant laugher, the M’s go for a sweep today against the reeling Twins who are sending a rookie with what looks like a dog’s name to the mound. Who is Bailey Ober?
This’ll be his fourth MLB start, and he’s got a remarkable K:BB ratio and an equally remarkable ground ball rate. It’s nearly impossible to hit it on the ground against this guy. Not sure why anyone would really *want* to, given that HRs have been the only thing that’s troubled him in his initial three starts. But still: a GB% near 20% will get my attention, even in a short sample.
I looked at Fangraphs’ scouting report when they named him the Twins 22nd best prospect coming into 2021, and it sees him as a middle reliever whose odd delivery might work in short stints as kind of a trick-pitch guy; it mentions Josh Collmenter, an old D’Backs starter/reliever who had that trick-pitch label. Collmenter’s extreme over-the-top delivery created a fastball with almost pure backspin, allowing Collmenter to get way more than you’d think out of below-average raw stuff. And given that arm angle, he posted absurd GB%, which allowed him to run low BABIPs and fashion a decent career despite not-quite-MLB velo and stuff.
So, imagine my surprise when I took a look at Ober’s release/velo. Ober had a ton more strikeouts than Collmenter ever did, but the biggest difference is that he’s not over the top *at all*. The dude’s all of 6’9″, but his release point is less than 6′ off the ground. This isn’t an over-the-top guy in any sense. So, is this a weird Josh Hader thing where he gets way more vertical rise than you’d expect, given his release point? Er, no, not that either. His fastball has *less* rise than average. (As an aside, it’s also way, way firmer than his scouting report indicated. This isn’t an 87-89 guy anymore; he’s fully 92-94.) The real reason for his freakish batted-ball profile is this. The guy just throws his four-seam up, and that’s essentially it. He doesn’t mix in lower fastballs to change eye-levels, he doesn’t throw to all quadrants. He just pings *sinking* four-seamers to the top or above the zone and dares you to do something about it.
Ober’s four-seam FB locations
This is another case where the old baseball nostrum about a really tall guy throwing downhill doesn’t quite work. You’ve got a 6’9″ guy throwing a sinking pitch, and batters *still* can’t hit on the ground if they tried. It’s a testament to the power of vertical location in determining the nature of contact. Of course, Ober’s hoping for no contact at all, but that’s neither here nor there. Finally, I’d say that Sheffield’s super-sinky four-seam is what caused the M’s to switch him over to a sinker, and you can see why they did that. I’m not suggesting that the Ober pathway was a *better* alternative, but it’s kind of fascinating to see someone with the same essential issue zig where the M’s zagged.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Fraley, LF
3: Haniger, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, 1B
6: Bauers, RF
7: Long, 2B
8: Trammell, CF
9: Godoy, C
SP: Sheffield
Good to see Haniger back after his scary knee contusion. And I’m sure Shed Long, Jr. is happy to be back at his natural position after being exiled to LF the past few games.
Tacoma came from 5 back in the late innings and beat Sacramento 10-9 in 10 innings. Cal Raleigh’s hitting streak just continues; it’s up to 21 games now.
Arkansas beat Tulsa 3-2. Jake Scheiner hit his 9th HR of the year. Adam Hill’s on the mound for the Travs.
Everett demolished Vancouver 16-9 in Hillsboro. Juliooooo went 2-5 with a walk, and Brandon Williamson was great for 5 1/3 IP, striking out 8 and giving up just one run for the win. Igor Januario, a personal favorite, had a game to forget, so we won’t dwell on that. Juan Then gets the start tonight.
San Jose beat Modesto 6-5 thanks in part to a HR from Giants uber-prospect Marco Luciano. The teenager is now slugging .545. Cade Marlowe went 2-4 with a walk, and is slugging .523 himself.
So, that’s going well…
Good to see Seattle stringing together hits. That’s not something we’re accustomed to this season.