Game 68, Twins at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Kenta Maeda, 7:10pm
The M’s return home after something of a rough road trip. The team isn’t really supposed to contend, so there’s no big loss of momentum or playoff-odds-dashing collapse. But as I’ve said quite a bit, the M’s are more fun to watch than their stats or place in the standings would lead you to believe: they’re getting more out of their not-good-enough roster, and they’ve had some fun victories over the course of 2021. But when they stop doing that, or when they mix in feel-good wins like yesterday’s with soul-suckers like the day before, it takes away some of the good will they’ve banked. Still, I don’t think anyone can be shocked that a bad team will occasionally play like one. A bad team having a bad week is something all of us have decided isn’t any kind of deal-breaker; none of us would be here it were were.
The Twins, though…ouch. This was a playoff team a year ago, and a really, really good one. They had a great mix of exciting young talent and the ageless wonder that is Nelson Cruz. They had good-enough pitching that was bolstered with free agents like Today’s starter, Kenta Maeda. They had Byron Buxton coming into his own, and a system preparing another wave with guys like Trevor Larnach waiting in the high minors. They’ve been up and down in recent years, one of the few teams that’s been almost unsettlingly volatile, but in 2021, they kind of felt too big to fail. They’ve really, really failed.
The Twins are tied with the Tigers for the worst record in the AL Central, and despite what they’ve done against the M’s, the Tigers really are bad. The Twins offense wasn’t able to recreate the magic of 2019 Bomba Squad, but they’re actually faring slightly better than last year, when the team won the Central with a .600 winning percentage. The problem has been an utter collapse of what was one of the league’s best pitching staffs in 2020. By Fangraphs’ FIP-based WAR, they were the second-most valuable group in 2020, and are now *dead last*.
It’s odd, because this isn’t a case where they lost their starting rotation, or went aftger a bunch of free agents who’ve all busted. Last year’s rotation included Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Kenta Maeda, and Randy Dobnak. All those guys are still around. They lost Rich Hill to free agency, but replaced him with veteran JA Happ. It’s not injuries, either. What’s happened is that Maeda’s collapsed, Dobnak’s regressed mightily, and the newcomers have poured gasoline all over the fire instead of putting it out. It just feels like a case where a few guys started the season off for whatever reason, and the Twins haven’t been able to figure out how to help.
Maeda’s season is perhaps the hardest to understand. While he was never an out-and-out star in Los Angeles, his tenure with the Dodgers was marked by remarkable consistency. In four years, his FIP bounced between 3.03 and 3.28. Now, his actual runs allowed came in higher, and had a bit more volatility – that’s kind of the deal with RA/9. But even there, the range of outcomes was pretty darn narrow, especially when you consider how many things were changing with the run environment over that period. How would he fare outside of LA’s elite coaching?
In 2020, Maeda pulled it all together and had the best year of his (US) career. It was such a short season, so perhaps it’s best to call it a hot streak, but he set career marks in both K% and BB%, in strand rate, in batting average-allowed. Everything worked. With the Dodgers, Maeda pitched off of a four-seam fastball, but threw a lot of sliders, curves, and some split-fingered changes. His fastball is only 91-92, and isn’t blessed with crazy spin or rise, so it was an effective pitch by setting up the bendy stuff. What Minnesota suggested to him was, why not just throw the bendy stuff, and use the fastball as a change-of-pace? In 2018, he threw four-seamers over 40% of the time, and it was down to about 35% his last year in LA. Last season, it was under *20%*. He’ll mix in the occasional sinker, but the point here is that he’s slider-dominant now, and fastballs of all types are rarer in his pitch mix than breaking balls OR his splitter. All of that worked splendidly last year, but that same approach is getting punished this year.
Seriously, there’s nothing too different about his velo, pitch mix, etc. The same slider-heavy approach that pushed his K rate over 32% is now threatening to fall under 20% in 2021. His strand rate is at the lowest level of his career, and his HR rate would be a career high…not the kind of career high you want. It’s all pretty weird, and as bad as it is for Maeda, it’s really sunk the Twins. The Twins are neck-and-neck with Baltimore for the highest HR/9 in the league, and Maeda’s a big part of that.
The explanation may be as simple as injury. Maeda’s been out with an arm injury for the past several days, and was just activated from the IL to make this start. I’m sure the Twins will be watching him closely. If the M’s can get it to the Twins bullpen, they should fare pretty well, as the ‘pen has been shaky this season – something the M’s saw and took advantage of when they faced off in Minnesota in April.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Fraley, DH
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Bauers, RF
7: Murphy, C
8: Long, LF
9: Trammell, CF
SP: Gonzales
Mitch Haniger’s out of the lineup with the knee contusion that caused him to come out of yesterday’s game. The team’s still hoping he won’t need an IL trip – just a few days of icing it. We shall see.
As it’s Monday, there’s only one game on the minor league docket, as Tacoma hosts Sacramento at Cheney Stadium. The teams were rained out yesterday. Tacoma’s 17-15, and sit second in the West division of the AAA-West. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the division, but have also allowed the fewest – this is thanks in large part to their spacious stadium and the fact that so many of the other teams play in altitude-and-or-desert-addled launching pads.
Arkansas is 16-19, 4th in their division in AA. They’ve got a positive run differential, and have the second-fewest runs allowed of any team in the Texas League, er, I mean, AA-Central.
Everett’s leading the High-A West at 21-13, thanks in large part to the highest scoring offense in the circuit. Their run differential is +95. Wow.
Finally, Modesto is 21-15, good for 3rd in their division of what used to be the California league. They are tied for the second most runs scored in the Low-A-West, and have a +13 run differential.
Great to see Bauers with some solid PAs and results.
But Fraley has been impressing me the most. I’m not sold on him as a regular yet, especially with his injury history, but he’s looking more and more like a solid piece to move forward with.