Game 43, Tigers at Mariners
Justin Dunn vs. Spencer Turnbull, 7:10pm
So, after throwing some shade on Casey Mize AND the Tigers anemic offense, the Tigers hit some HRs and Mize shuts down the M’s easily. You win some, you lose some…to the *Tigers.* Ouch. Seriously, this has been one of the most impressive things about the M’s this year: they win the winnable games. They’re really doing pretty well at beating the teams they should beat, and playing decently enough in the other games. No one expects them to win every game against the Dodgers or Astros, but they haven’t slipped up too many times against the Orioles and the like. Hopefully, they can recover from last night’s humiliation and start holding down this Tigers’ line-up.
Tonight’s opposing starter is righty Spencer Turnbull, a 2nd round pick out of HS back in 2014. He features a good mid-90s fastball, a sinker, and a slurvy, diving slider at around 85. He has good velocity, but a combination of a low-ish release point and what looks like some cut on the four-seamer means that everything he throws is sinking, almost like Justus Sheffield in his first year with the M’s – he has a four-seamer, but that doesn’t mean it’s a rising, top-of-the-zone type of a pitch. He’ll mix in the odd curve and change, and as usual, I’m intrigued by his Pablo Lopez-style, tons-of-armside-run change, and wonder why he doesn’t throw it more.
His slider is really a carbon copy of…Justin Dunn’s. Both are thrown from a near-matching release point (Turnbull’s is fractionally lower) and both have 4″ of horizontal movement and -1-2″ of vertical movement, putting them both pretty far from league average. Dunn’s is thrown about 1mph slower than Turnbull’s, so it has a bit more movement, but we’re literally talking about fractions of an inch.
They’re extremely similar pitches thrown in much the same way. So why are their fastballs so different? As I mentioned above, Turnbull appears to cut his four-seamer, which may be why it shows up with really good spin rates but comparatively little movement: it has much *less* vertical rise than average, while Dunn’s has more (Dunn *also* has slightly above average spin), and Turnbull has essentially zero horizontal movement, while Dunn has more or less what you’d expect for a four-seam thrown at his arm angle. Both players throw remarkably similarly in terms of velo and motion, and both just took very different approaches to being different.
What I mean by that is that both players want their fastball to do something – *anything* -different than what batters are expecting. Turnbull’s cut gives the pitch the appearance of sink, and it’s helped him post really high ground ball rates, and has helped fuel Turnbull’s almost freakishly low HR rates. Dunn’s taken the opposite road, and so his fastball rises more than you’d expect given his arm angle. This is what helps produce mishits and extremely *low* ground ball rates (coming into tonight, Dunn’s GB% is under 30%). Then, having diverged about as much as two very similar pitchers can, they come back and throw identical sliders as their outpitch, but neither guy strikes out batters at even league-average rates.
All in all, it’ll be a cool match-up to watch. Both have taken their distinct approaches and come in with very similar ERAs. Turnbull has a sparkling FIP thanks to low walks and almost no HRs, but he’s struggled a bit to strand runners. As we’ve talked about, Dunn’s big thing is his low BABIP thanks to all of those popped-up balls in play, which help him pitch around his still-troubling lack of control.
1: Kelenic, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, DH
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Torrens, C
8: Marmolejos, 1B
9: Haggerty, LF
SP: Dunn
Jarred Kelenic gets his first start in CF tonight, with Kyle Lewis DH’ing.
Tacoma beat Salt Lake last night 7-3 behind yet another dinger from Taylor Trammell. Jimmy Yacabonis got the win in relief (it’s all relief; they pretty much have to do bullpen days each day) with 4 Ks in 2 2/3 scoreless. Today, Reeves Martin, a 2019 draft pick called in to support a weary bullpen, gets the spot start against the Bees’ Packy Naughton, whom I mention because I never miss an opportunity to type “Packy Naughton.”
Arkansas kicks off a series with Corpus Christi today with Alejandro Requena starting.
Everett opens a series in Spokane over at Avista Stadium. Matt Brash starts for the Frogs. Spokane’s spent so long as a Rangers affiliate when they were in the NWL, but with the shifting around in the minors, they’re now a Rockies affiliate. The Rockies’ #3 and #5 prospects (Matthew Toglia and Aaron Schunk) are at the IF corners for the Indians, and they also have a couple of pitchers rounding out the Rockies’ top 10 list. They all have the unenviable task of trying to slow down Julio Rodriguez. Good luck with that.
Modesto starts a series with Inland Empire tonight.
They’re really doing pretty well at beating the teams they should beat, and playing decently enough in the other games.
(reads Marc’s post)
(checks M’s score and sees red box)
(sighs)
Not that I would say that it has affected the score nor is t responsible for the M’s ineptitude but we are being treated to another tour de strike zone from home plate ump Angel Hernandez
Seriously……
Why the No-hitter watch once a week?
Pathetic.
I taught HS in 1985 In California, and mentioned to the students that I would be a faithful FAN forever. I NEVER imagined that 30+ years later that the MARINERS would continue to be this PATHETIC.
For whatever reason, I just wasn’t in the mood for a game last night. I took care of other things instead and went to sleep early (well, for me).
No regrets.