Game 21, Mariners at Red Sox
Chris Flexen vs. Nate Eovaldi, 10:10am
It’s getaway day in Boston, as the M’s and Red Sox play the decisive game of this three-game set. The Red Sox had what looked like a fairly easy win in hand yesterday, but Kyle Seager made it interesting in the ninth with a three-run HR against previously-dominant Matt Barnes.
Neither starter was all that sharp yesterday, a fact that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given the struggles both have had in recent years. I’m still pretty confused about Yusei Kikuchi and why he goes through periods where he seems easy to square up. Martin Perez has been easy to square up for some time, so that’s less of a mystery. Kikuchi’s first two starts were marred by some HRs, but they were ultimately quite promising. He had 16 strikeouts and just 3 walks in his first 12 IP. But in the two starts since, he’s tossed 11 2/3 IP with only 4 Ks and 6 walks. The cutter that had been his best pitch last year simply isn’t missing any bats; batters whiffed on it on just over 1/4 of their swings last year, but he got none last night. Boston’s line-up is deep and very good, so we can perhaps give him a pass. But the M’s will need him if they’re going to keep this strong start going.
Chris Flexen has been excellent in the early going, and I’m interested to see how he attacks this Red Sox line-up. Flexen’s perhaps been a bit lucky with HRs thus far, as he’s given up plenty of fly balls, but just one dinger. But he’s been equally UNlucky on balls in play, with a BABIP up near .400. As is the case so early, that’s essentially the result of his last start, a very good one against the Astros, in which he gave up 10 base hits in 6 IP. That sort of thing could happen again here in Boston, with a great line-up and a hitter-friendly park. But Flexen’s shown that he can pitch around baserunners and, critically for him, limit walks. It’s just that he’s going to have to get used to it if he doesn’t improve his putaway pitches and get some more whiffs. He’s not getting many batters to chase, and has a very high contact rate against him – he’s not fooling batters. But he’s also not getting blown off the mound. It’s a strange mix of outcomes, but as long as it works for him, that’s probably ok. He’s your one-man antidote to three-true-outcomes baseball.
Nate Eovaldi is one of the hardest-throwing starters in the game. He’s averaging 97 on his fastball this year, and has for some time. It was one of the bigger mysteries in the game why Eovaldi could have such elite velocity and not get and strikeouts in strikeout-friendly MLB, but he seems to have figured it out. He mixes in a 93mph cutter, a slider, a curve, and even a splitter/change. That cutter’s been one of his better strikeout pitches, and it really is pretty similar to Kikuchi’s. The split and curve give him options to change eye level and work vertically in (and out of) the zone, and everything plays much better now that he’s improved his control. Since the start of 2020, Eovaldi’s got the 4th-lowest BB/9 among starters, behind Zach Plesac, Zach Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw (Marco Gonzales is just behind at 6th-lowest).
He’s much improved, but he’s not a really dominant, K-heavy pitcher in the way that Shane Bieber or :speaks reverentially: Jacob deGrom is. I missed a good chunk of yesterday’s M’s game, because I try to catch some of every deGrom start; he’s become must-watch TV. I haven’t seen a pitcher on a run quite this good since peak Randy Johnson, and I do not say that lightly.
1: Haniger, RF
2: France, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Marmolejos, DH
5: White, 1B
6: Trammell, CF
7: Torrens, C
8: Haggerty, LF
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Flexen