Body Blows
The M’s have made several minor personnel moves in the days surrounding their annual media day, but the biggest news involves a setback for perhaps their most important hitter, Mitch Haniger. Haniger’s season was shut down early following a :shivers: ruptured testicle. His rehab seemed to be fairly uneventful, but he felt something during a workout recently, and now requires core surgery that will keep him from baseball activities for 6-8 weeks. At a minimum, his spring training is probably shot, and as such, he’ll miss opening day. It’s not clear how much more than that he could miss, but hopefully not too much.
The larger question, of course, is what it does to his development. 2019 was an odd one, as his BABIP dropped and his strikeouts spiked during the first half of the year. But he made up for these shortcomings with additional power, likely boosted by the juiced baseball league-wide. The missed time and continued uncertainty around the ball make it hard to know what to expect from a hitter who was freakishly consistent in 2017-18 (when healthy). It’s not a coincidence that the M’s second-half swoon really kicked into high gear once Haniger left, and his presence in the line-up could make this season minimally tolerable, so hopefully we won’t hear anything more about setbacks or timetables from Mr. Haniger. This injury likely opens the door to Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis in April. If Fraley can improve upon his rough introduction to MLB, that would certainly help the M’s sketchy depth, but on paper, it could make for something of a rough start to 2020.
The M’s addressed their *infield* depth by signing former Pirates prospect Alen Hanson to a minor league deal. I mentioned him on the blog once just to point out he was among the least-likely MLB first basemen I’d encountered since Miguel Cairo when he popped up playing 1B in Toronto last year. He hit .163/.229/.163 in a cup of coffee last year, and is a career .232/.266/.368 hitter in about 1 full season of work. It’s…it’s not a good slash line, friends. He came up as a slick-fielding shortstop, and would figure to offer a push to Dylan Moore or whomever at utility, but will likely hang out in Tacoma for at least a few months.
I’d say that the pick-up of Hanson’s a clear, consistent Dipoto move, similar to his acquisition of another ex-Giants SS, Kelby Tomlinson, last year. But if you really want an example of a move so obviously “Mariners” it almost needs to be written in northwest green writing, here you go: the M’s have acquired LHP Nick Margevicius, who’d been DFA’d by San Diego about a week ago. Margevicius is just 23, and made the Pads opening day roster last year, but struggled and was demoted after a few months of replacement-level pitching, mostly out of the rotation. Coming up through the San Diego system, he balanced a lack of real bat-missing stuff with very good control. As you might expect, that walk rate climbed in the big leagues, as hitters started knocking his fastball/slider/change/curve mix around, and forcing him towards the corners or off the plate. His straight four-seam fastball registers just 88 MPH, so Margevicius fits the template of the lefty junkballer that’s been catnip for this organization. After losing both Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone, Jerry Dipoto was probably itching for a replacement, and now he’s got one.
Of course, just because the M’s love the template doesn’t mean it’s been a real winner for them. Milone started well, but tailed off, and LeBlanc’s 2019 is probably best left undiscussed here. Margevicius offers youth and team control, and might improve with some instruction in the minors, or move to a swingman role once, say, Justin Dunn or Logan Gilbert is deemed ready. It’s not a bad pick-up at all, but I hope the M’s still hope to acquire another starting pitcher. Margevicius could stick around, but they could use a bit more experience in the rotation, and, if you’d permit me an editorial comment here, more velocity.
Margevicius’ slider looks like his best pitch, and he does something pretty good with it: he induces a lot of swings. In general, if batters are swinging and putting your breaking ball in play at higher rates than your fastball, you’re doing something right. The average exit velocity and production on bendy things are lower than the corresponding averages for fastballs, and it often means hitters are expanding the zone to stay alive – all of that’s to the good (from the pitcher’s point of view). He hasn’t really been able to limit the damage on that contact, but you can see the M’s thought process here. Last year, he had bizarre reverse splits, as lefties torched him. There’s no real reason that should continue, so he could benefit from some regression. At the same time, he’s struggled from the stretch and really struggled to miss bats, and at 88 MPH, there’s no real reason that should change in the future, though pitch design could presumably help.
I know many of you are sick of the cynicism surrounding the team, but there’s no way to look at the recent news and feel too confident. This team will rise or fall based on the development of players like Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodgriguez. The problem for fans here is that it’s doubtful either will play for the Seattle Mariners in 2020. There will be plenty of development in Seattle, and watching the likes of Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, and Logan Gilbert should be instructive (as well as JP Crawford and Shed Long). But the real story for the future M’s will be taking place in Arkansas. Meanwhile, the M’s rivals have restocked. Minnesota’s signing of Josh Donaldson helps build around a terrifying young core featuring one of the league’s intriguing infields. The Angels get a return to health from Shohei Ohtani and pair him with newly-acquired 3B Anthony Rendon. The Indians top three starters – Shane Bieber/Mike Clevinger/Carlos Carrasco – headline one of the best groups in baseball, with the possible exception of Tampa’s troika of Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow/Charlie Morton. Let’s say the M’s OF teens are everything Dipoto hopes they can be. The M’s *still* need to close the gap between their current club and where their rivals are headed. Sure, the Astros will be worse than we once thought come 2021, but on paper, they’re still a lot better, and the good teams in the AL keep getting better. I believe in Julio Rodgriguez’s development, but something pretty major needs to change in order for the M’s to capitalize on it.
Felix Hernandez Plays for Atlanta Now
This day was always coming. Yes, it felt jarring at first to see Jon Heyman report that Felix signed a $1 million minor league deal with the Atlanta Braves today, but I honestly think I prefer it to Felix going unsigned, and unceremoniously forgotten. The fact that he couldn’t get a big-league deal shows that possibility wasn’t *too* far away, but realistically, someone as competitive as El Cartelua was never going to slink off into retirement in 2020.
Felix butted heads with M’s coaches and that experience probably impacted his desirability to other clubs, but the Braves have some experience here. A bit over 3 years ago, in January of 2017, the M’s jettisoned prospect Luiz Gohara, who’d spent four years in the M’s system. He seemed to turn a corner in 2016, in what was, admittedly, his third go-round in Everett, but after the move east, he shot through the Braves system rapidly, making his MLB debut in 2017. This is baseball, so there are rarely true happy endings; he was off in 2018, belatedly diagnosed with a shoulder issue, and then quietly released (then signed by the Angels), so this isn’t purely a “why do they always get better” lament. But I think it helped the Braves front office get over any qualms they may have had about Felix’s health and issues responding to coaching. They’ve seen something similar before.
Is this Felix’s best pathway to MLB playing time? No, of course not. You could make a case that the M’s might offer that, but so would the Royals or Tigers. The Braves young rotation is led by MIke Soroka and Max Fried, but also includes Cole Hamels, Mike Foltynewicz, and presumably Sean Newcomb (who worked mostly in relief last year). That’s not even getting into the fact that the Braves still boast a solid assortment of pitching prospects including Touki Toussaint and Ian Anderson. Still, it’s near Felix’s new home in Florida, and he’s working with a player development group that’s managed to get quite a bit of big-league production out of their pitchers.
That said, they’ve made some high-profile missteps, as with Kevin Gausman in 2019, and the career trajectory of ex-Brave Julio Teheran looks quite Felix-like from afar. Like Felix, Teheran lost velocity each year for many years, and saw his walk rate climb higher at the same time. This shouldn’t be a surprise: there is no silver bullet in player development. For all the grief I give them, the M’s really shouldn’t be expected to put every player on an effective improvement plan that works for each player’s strengths and personality. All teams can do is maximize their “hit” rate, and a big part of that is being flexible, and listening when a player says something isn’t working. The Astros’ player development successes have been accompanied by a ton of failures, as you’d expect – not just the big JD Martinez misses, but the dozens of players who’ve washed out there and turned up later in other orgs. Felix was often seen as a haughty big-leaguer who thought he was somehow above putting in time with coaches and trainers. I’ve disagreed, but again: the biggest part of player development is really getting that initial buy-in from the athlete. The M’s seem to have struggled with this at times, though by all accounts this is changing. I’m not sure what Atlanta does differently, but it is striking that they’ve brought in pitchers and prospects from different orgs, meaning they’re dealing with a wide array of habits, previous coaching techniques, and raw abilities. They seem to make it work about as well as any other org, with the asterisked exception of the Astros.
I suppose I’m glad he’s not pitching for an AL West rival, but I’ve got no real affinity for the Braves. I just hope this works, and that he’s got enough left in his right arm to make it up as a swing man, or that he’s first up from Gwinnett when a big league rotation member goes down with injury.