Felix Hernandez Point/Counter-Point
POINT
It’s neat that we can record pitch velocities. Batters don’t have any equivalent kind of measurement, any direct reflection of what’s going on inside the body, and how the body’s working together. Pitch velocity, for example, can be a strong indicator of an injury. What do we have for batters? Under-performance? Complaints of an injury? Also, pitch velocity is just fun. With that in mind, 119 different starters this year threw at least ten innings in April, and have thrown at least ten innings in June. Let’s look at the biggest gains in average fastball velocity, out of that group:
- Jeff Francis, +1.9 mph
- Mat Latos, +1.8
- Felix Hernandez, +1.7
- Jonathan Pettibone, +1.6
- Chris Sale, +1.6
- Matt Harvey, +1.6
People have written a lot about Felix’s diminishing fastball. People have tried to make comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and Felix sure as shoot doesn’t touch 100 anymore. But he can touch 94 and 95, and right now he’s gaining strength. It’s looking like he hasn’t slipped from last year. He might even end up gaining a little bit, overall. Talk about the days when Felix might become a finesse pitcher appear premature. He’s got as hard a fastball right now as Clayton Kershaw, if not a little harder, since separating the heat and the changeup is tricky. And can we take a moment to pause and acknowledge how bizarre it is that separating the heat and the changeup is tricky? Is Felix’s changeup someday going to lap his sinker? Is it going to be like when a baserunner accidentally passes the guy who’s supposed to be in front of him? That seems like the logical conclusion to this ongoing absurdity.
COUNTER-POINT
So what about Felix’s velocity? He threw his hardest in his early years, and in his early years, he was undeveloped. At one point Felix made the leap, and from then the fastball has been slipping while the results haven’t been. You’re taking velocity to be a meaningful indicator. What’s a more meaningful indicator than how batters do against the pitchers, no matter how hard they’re thrown? As a rookie in 2005, Felix allowed about 76% contact. So far this year, he’s allowed about 76% contact. There’s not really any proven link between Felix’s heat and Felix’s results, and it’s the results we ultimately want.
POINT
Pitchers are fragile. So tragically fragile. (Tragile?) Felix is one of the best pitchers, and he’s the best pitcher on this team, and he’s the face of this franchise. He’s the superstar, and he’s under contract for a long time, and he’s the guy you’d pay to watch. He has his own special cheering section, which used to be more rare than it is now, in part because of Felix’s cheering section. If Felix’s velocity were slipping, we might be concerned that the structural integrity of his joints is also slipping. We’re always worried about the possibility that Felix will get hurt, and the team will be devastated. The evidence suggests that Felix is getting stronger. There’s no sign of injury, and there’s no sign of fatigue which could lead to injury.
COUNTER-POINT
Didn’t the team just put Felix through a rigorous physical exam over the offseason, prior to his contract extension being finalized? Didn’t we already know he wasn’t hurt? The Mariners put cameras in every single pore and every single organ. There was nothing wrong at all, except for some fraying in the elbow, leading to the contract’s containing protective language. The shoulder? Nothing up with the shoulder. And the shoulder’s the biggie. We already had peace of mind, before this peace of mind.
POINT
It’s been a long time and a lot of pitches, though, since that exam. It’s good that nothing’s started to go wrong.
COUNTER-POINT
But like you said, pitchers can break at the drop of a hat. Maybe the next pitch is the bad one. There’s no way to know. Pitchers are only durable until they’re not, and that can happen suddenly. If you’re looking to live in fear, you can live in fear all the time, if you like. There’s always something to worry about, because there’s always the unknowable future.
POINT
I’m just trying to say something positive about Felix Hernandez. Have you seen this team? What is there to say? Okay, great, Nick Franklin is succeeding and maybe now Dustin Ackley is fixed, and Taijuan Walker just pitched well in his Triple-A debut so he might not be all that far off. But the Mariners aren’t good and they’re not in the race and the season’s not half-over. The season’s not half-over. Jesus! There’s nothing wrong with being positive about Felix Hernandez. It’s lighting a candle in a dark auditorium.
COUNTER-POINT
Present the facts, but don’t over-interpret them. Lay them out and say what you can say without stretching. Facts can be interesting on their own, and if a fact doesn’t seem interesting, but you think it is interesting, you should only explain why it’s interesting using other, related facts. Fact: Felix’s velocity is up. That’s about it. What does it mean? Can’t really say. It’s not science to begin with a fact and then try to figure out what it means in the bigger picture using just your biased imagination. Well, it’s not good science. Facts are firm soil. Interpretations can be quicksand.
POINT
I don’t think I did over-interpret.
COUNTER-POINT
You implied it.
POINT
Are you sure you weren’t just assuming my motives? Are you the one over-interpreting?
COUNTER-POINT
Does objectivity even exist? In isolation, sure, but when humans become involved, is there such thing as perfect objectivity in the eyes of the beholder? We’re not computers. We’re mostly computers, but we’re computers with agendas, like future evolved terror computers.
POINT
We might be over-thinking the Mariners.
COUNTER-POINT
Doesn’t seem like we’re talking about the Mariners.
POINT
In a way, we’re never talking just about the Mariners.
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3 Responses to “Felix Hernandez Point/Counter-Point”
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Great post. I find it very interesting to consider the manner in which numbers are approached and used — as interesting or even more interesting than the numbers themselves.
Or the Mariners.
I couldn’t help but start hearing this in the voice of Gollum toward the end of this article :).
So good. It was posted in the daytime, but I always imagine these most Sullivanic articles were mostly keyed between 3 and 4 AM.