Felix’s Change-Up
Most of the talk about Felix so far this year has centered around his missing velocity, and as a result, the mediocrity of his fastball. But, the fastball has always been Felix’s worst pitch, even when he used to throw 98 with regularity. His curve is very good. His slider is one of the best in the game. But his change-up… that’s the pitch that makes him King Felix.
Change-ups get a bad rap a lot of times, as people think it’s just a slow fastball that throws off a hitter’s timing by fooling them into swinging too early. That’s part of it, but the really good change-ups are so much more. They don’t just float up to the plate – they dive and fade, tailing down and away from opposite-handed hitters, which is why they’re such an effective weapon for RHPs against left-handed batters (and vice versa). They not only get a batter out in front because of the lower velocity, but the tailing, sinking movement causes hitters to swing over the top, so they can be lethal groundball/strikeout pitches.
And no one throws a better diving, tailing change-up than Felix. He doesn’t even bother with the whole deception part of the pitch. His change-up is 87-89, just a couple of ticks below the fastball he’s currently throwing at 90-93. It doesn’t matter. The pitch has so much movement that opposing hitters don’t have a chance, even when they know it’s coming.
And tonight, the Indians had to know it’s coming. Every time he needed a punch-out, he went to the change-up. And not just to left-handers – he was not shy about throwing it at righties either, letting it fall off the table and end up at their ankles. You generally don’t want to throw a pitch that breaks down and in towards a hitter, but his ability to start it in the strike zone and end it outside of the strike zone makes it a swing-and-miss pitch even against same handed batters.
From a quick perusal of the Pitch F/x data, I have him throwing 23 change-ups. Nine of them were swung at and missed, a ridiculous 39.1% swinging strike rate. Six others were fouled off, so 15 of the 23 he threw convinced the opposing batter to chase and yet failed to lead to any kind of quality contact. In fact, not one single change-up was put in play all night long – the other eight were taken for a ball. That’s absurd.
Never was the pitch more on display than in the eighth inning. After one clean single and two cheap infield hits, Felix had the bases loaded and only one out with a one run lead. Left-handed batter Jason Kipnis stepped in. Felix needed a strikeout or a double play, but given that a ground ball could score the run even without leaving the infield, a K was Felix’s best bet to preserve the lead.
Curveball, taken, strike one.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike two.
Fastball, taken, ball one.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike three.
Then, up stepped Shin-Soo Choo. He’d been watching Felix throw change-ups all night long. He just watched Felix put Kipnis down with two deadly change-ups. He had to know what was coming, especially if he got behind in the count.
Curveball, taken, ball one.
Fastball, foul, strike one.
Fastball, taken, strike two.
Change-up, swinging strike, strike three.
There was no doubt that Felix was going to throw Shin-Soo Choo a change-up on that 1-2 pitch. I knew it. Felix knew it. Choo knew it. He still couldn’t touch it.
Mariano Rivera’s cutter. Justin Verlander’s fastball. Clayton Kershaw’s slider. Felix’s change-up is right there with them, and in the discussion for the best pitch in baseball.
Yeah, he didn’t get a “win” tonight, but anyone watching the game saw Felix at his best. Even without his best velocity, it didn’t matter. His change-up is that good.
Game 14, Indians at Mariners
Hernandez vs Tomlin, 7:10 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
From Shannon Drayer’s blog:
“Miggy is our starting catcher, Jesus is going to get time as well, it is going to be tough to get Jaso back there,” he said. “Not that I am against it but right now I feel like I need to give the time to Miggy and Jesus. I still want to get Jaso’s bat in the lineup from time to time if I can so that is what we are trying to do.”
I asked Wedge going with Olivo was more about what he does behind the plate or getting his bat going.
“We’re trying to get it going,” he answered. “I have had conversations with him. I was really pleased with what he did this spring he’s working up the middle more, he is trying to go the other way which is against what you have seen from him in the past typically. He has done a nice job with it. I think he has been a little anxious here early on I think he has been pressing a little bit but his confidence hasn’t wavered and I feel he is going to hit but he just has to do some things in an adjustment period to make that happen.”
I guess my kudos towards Wedge were premature. He really has no idea that Miguel Olivo is a terrible baseball player, or that John Jaso would give the Mariners a better chance of winning. Fantastic.
By and large, managers don’t really matter much. They really only need to be able to do a few things decently well – correctly identify the guys on the team who should play the most often, keep order in the clubhouse, and don’t be a total tool to the media. Wedge seems to be just fine at the last two, but he’s awful at the first one. He’s not the only problem with this team, obviously, but just pretending that he isn’t one isn’t useful either.
Figgins, LF
Ackley, 2B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 3B
Saunders, CF
Olivo, C
Jaso, DH
Ryan, SS