Game 102, Mariners at White Sox
Dave · July 28, 2010 at 1:54 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Vargas vs Buehrle, 5:10 pm.
I posted this on twitter this afternoon, but here’s something depressing – the five lowest wOBAs in baseball over the last 30 days:
1. Justin Smoak, .171
2. Ivan Rodriguez, .175
3. Miguel Montero, .227
4. Ichiro Suzuki, .231
5. Franklin Gutierrez, .231
Jose Lopez is 11th at .260. Rob Johnson (.230) and Jack Wilson (.240) don’t have enough plate appearances to qualify, but have been equally atrocious. There’s no way these guys will continue hitting this poorly, but man, what a rough month.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Branyan, DH
Smoak, 1B
Bard, C
Josh Wilson, 3B
Saunders, LF
Jack Wilson, SS
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164 Responses to “Game 102, Mariners at White Sox”
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Granted, 81 wins is a whole lot better than the M’s are going to get this year, but Beane’s not infalable.
I think Billy Beane’s got a bit more track record than Zduriencik, though.
Just having a good GM isn’t enough. Just having a good GM and a large stack of dollar bills, still not enough.
The proprtion of the team’s payroll tied up by Ichiro is irrelevant.
I thought we defeated these arguments years ago when people thought the reason the Rangers was bad was because they paid 1/3 of their payroll to A-Rod. Even though if you took A-Rod away, their payroll was the same as Oakland’s, and Oakland was kicking their ass year after year. So what these people were saying was that if you took a good team like Oakland (then), and added A-Rod to it (then), it would suddenly be bad.
It was nonsense then, and it’s nonsense now.
I am not an Ichiro fan because I don’t like his style of play. His infield hits with RISP that do no good, he doesn’t walk or take pitches, his SB attempts are lower than I would like to see, and he NEVER dives for a ball in the outfield.
All that said, I can’t argue his greatness. The numbers don’t lie. Not diving keeps him on the field for close to 162 games a year. Eric Davis dove a lot in his prime, always hurt, Griffey hurt himself a number of times diving/jumping into walls. That is not even mentioning the fact that he gets 200 plus hits as a lead off hitter.
Bottom line is not 1 person complained about him in 2001 and other seasons when we had a good offense and were challenging for the playoffs. Ichiro should be the one that is mad. Put him as the lead off hitter on a good team and there is no question as to how good he is or how he helps your team win.
I think Billy Beane’s got a bit more track record than Zduriencik, though.
He found a flaw in talent evaluation system and exploited it. And it worked until everyone else figured out the flaw and exploited it themselves. Since then he’s been pretty mediocre. Apparently in 2010 he finally discovered defense.
I’m not ready to throw Zduriencik under the bus — none of the moves he made other than the League-for-Morrow deal looked dumb then, and they don’t look dumb now. What we have here is a team that’s underperforming at a level rarely seen. Everything had to go right for the M’s to contend. When you have three starters hitting well below their career performance means, this is what you get.
Beane also came into his position with a much better stocked cupboard than Zduriencik did. Hudson, Chavez, Tejeda, and Giambi Major were already on the roster (for cheap), and Beane had a top-10 pick each of his first two years (Mulder 2nd overall in 98, Zito 9th in 99). He turned over the roster pretty dramatically his first year, but almost all the new faces were already in the Oakland system. The big outside acquisitions he made were Kenny Rogers, 38 year old Rickey Henderson (.723 OPS in 98) and, no doubt about it, Mike Blowers to keep 3B warm for a 20 year old Eric Chavez.
I don’t think Beane sucks or anything. Don’t think Zdurincik does either, and certainly Beane has more winning seasons to his credit. But he’s hardly an untouchable Jedi Master.
none of the moves he made other than the League-for-Morrow deal looked dumb then
Griffey/Sweeney as the DH combo (forcing Bradley to LF) looks pretty dumb in retrospect, and was pretty arguable at the time. I’d also argue that putting a lot of faith in Snell/Wilson without a backup plan, or investing in the bullpen was also problematic, especially given that the team now seemingly is paying MLB salaries in 2010 to six different 1B/DH types (Junior, Sweeney, Branyan, Smoak, Bradley, Kotchman) while using Josh freaking Wilson in pretty close to a full time role, David Pauley as a starter, and claiming guys like Jamey Wright off the waiver wire. D’ya think it’s possible the M’s MIGHT have been better served by a utility infielder, another starter and a bullpen guy for a few million instead of investing in clubhouse hugs and “veteran leadership”?
I’d say much of what you can say about Beane applies to Zduriencik- yeah, the reliance on shiny new evaluating techniques is good, but they are perfectly capable of guessing wrong (Kotchman) OR making mistakes (DH) despite that. And there’s NO question in my mind that all 2010 proves is that Jack can screw up every now and then, regardless of how bare the cupboard is.
Griffey/Sweeney as the DH combo (forcing Bradley to LF) looks pretty dumb in retrospect, and was pretty arguable at the time.
Assuming there’s no way in hell you get away with not signing Griffey, I’m not sure who you sign in place of Sweeney. Between then they were what, $4M? Who could you get better for $4M? Maybe Jim Thome, but then you’re rolling the dice on a guy Griffey’s age who hadn’t been hitting much better than Griffey. Branyan wouldn’t have signed for $4M. And if Branyan wouldn’t have, no way in hell Vlad would have.
Ending up with Griffey/Sweeney was both avoidable and inevitable.
Josh freaking Wilson in pretty close to a full time role, David Pauley as a starter, and claiming guys like Jamey Wright off the waiver wire.
So you’re complaining that the M’s have played a cheap replacement level utility infielder, a fifth starter that apparently can get outs (unlike Snell), and a left-handed 20,000 year old arm? Really? Again, does anyone around here actually watch the damn games?
D’ya think it’s possible the M’s MIGHT have been better served by a utility infielder, another starter and a bullpen guy for a few million instead of investing in clubhouse hugs and “veteran leadership”?
Of course. But take that $4M and tell me where you can get all three of those at the start of the year. Go on.
The M’s painted themselves into a corner. Zduriencik kept painting. At the same time, though, this is a team that wasn’t going to win unless everything went right. And everything went wrong.
And if you think cheap power is going to solve this problem, check the current HR table — 9 players in the AL and 10 in the NL have 20 or more HRs. At this point five years ago, it was twice that.
Griffey/Sweeney was dumb, and not just in retrospect. Putting so much failth in Jack Wilson was questionable. Snell I don’t have a problem with – he was a gamble that didn’t pay off, but we didn’t give up a ton for him. I’m perfectly happy with a half dozen Ian Snell’s fighting for the last couple of rotation slots. Good chance one of them turns out to be named Vargas instead.
What it comes to for me, and why I’m not ready to abandon the Zduriencik bandwagon, is that the only unproductive long-term move so far is Figgins, and very few people thought that was a terrible move. Everything else has been opportunity cost, and I don’t think there have been a lot of missed opportunities, at least not ones that didn’t only look good in hindsight.
Between then they were what, $4M? Who could you get better for $4M?
The Griffey/Sweeney two-headed DH monster pretty much projected as roughly replacement level. Their likely level of production could have been found very easily for considerably less than 4 million dollars, while only clogging up one roster spot, including at least one in-house option (Carp).
I’m willing to give Z the benefit of the doubt on this one–I suspect he may not have had much of a choice in the matter. But in pure baseball terms, it was a very poor decision, and it was transparently very poor at the time.
It’s rather predictable that this bad year has caused a lot of sniping at Zduriencik, but I will admit to being somewhat surprised at the quarters it’s coming from.
Just remember: we could’ve ended up with Jerry diPoto.
a fifth starter that apparently can get outs (unlike Snell)
David Pauley is (realisitically) a replacement-level ballplayer who MAYBE, if he’s very lucky, has Ryan Franklin’s career.
In fact, we can probably say that about Josh Wilson and Wright, too- as well as Sweeney and Griffey (who spent most of a DECADE as a replacement-level player).
And if you think cheap power is going to solve this problem
Didn’t say cheap power was going to solve this problem. As a matter of fact, I called out things like infield depth (because our plan of record for backing up a guy with bad hamstrings was a guy with a handful of MLB innings at SS, with NO history of hitting enough at the MLB level to keep a job at other infield positions where he was a decent glove), and the bullpen (where we seem to have 2346356356 RHPs with no command and good fastballs, and a propensity for throwing nothing but said fastballs in all counts).
It’s rather predictable that this bad year has caused a lot of sniping at Zduriencik
It’s not sniping (I’m stressing that he doesn’t deserve to be fired)- I’m just not buying that every good thing that’s happened to the Seattle Mariners from 2009-2010 is to Zduriencik’s credit, but every bad thing is Bill Bavasi’s fault, thus what might turn out to be a 100-loss season in 2010 is a complete mulligan.
Just remember: we could’ve ended up with Jerry diPoto.
Or Cam Bonifay, or whoever. Right. I get that. And there ARE good things that have happened.
But the standard isn’t “well, nothing’s his fault because Bavasi/Armstrong/you can’t say ‘no’ to Griffey”. The standard is how have the Mariners made themselves closer to being a championship-caliber team, and if you take the blog owner seriously, we’re farther away from that than we were 12 months ago. Not all of that is Zduriencik’s fault, but SOME of that is. He’s going to have to do better.
This year has been a product of a few bad decisions that weren’t nearly as bad or as important as you’re making them out to be, combined with an enormous amount of bad luck.
And while you acknowledge that there are “good things that have happened” you never mention them. We turned three C-level prospects into Justin Smoak and two interesting arms, AND had half a year of watching Cliff Lee in a Mariners uniform as part of the bargain.
But then, you were told this on LL when you started beating this drum there, and it didn’t seem to sink in; so I don’t expect it to now, either.
Say, I wonder what the great Randy “I’ll trade half the Tigers’ roster for 100 crummy games of Juan Gonzalez” Smith is up to these days?
But then, you were told this on LL when you started beating this drum there, and it didn’t seem to sink in; so I don’t expect it to now, either.
Yes, obviously, saying the GM gets to be held accountable for results as part of their job description, even if we get all starry-eyed and dreamy over the process… well, obviously I’m being obtuse.
I’ll ask this: imagine it’s 8 years from now, Zduriencik does his tear down/rebuild job, and we end up with something like this as the result (pointing to another GM who has been cited on this blog for having good staff, making good trades, and developing good farm system talent). Will it be fair to judge the GM’s performance on the team’s record then?
I get that being a GM is hard. I get that there’s bad luck and past screwups. I get there’s lots of good things in the 2010 season that are Zduriencik’s credits (I’d point out Vargas too, while we’re at it- I think he might be the guy we thought RRS would be, a decent backend lefty). But, no, I don’t think Zduriencik has proven much of anything in 2010. Do better, please.