Game 57, Rangers at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Jesse Chavez/Adrian Sampson, 7:10pm
Sorry for the interruption in posting, but I was enjoying a wonderful Memorial Day weekend at Lake Quinault and wandering around the rain forest. It takes one’s mind off of the current state of the M’s, and it was a wonderful break from cataloguing this current slide. Luckily, the even ENDED that slide by winning last night as I came back to town from the Olympia Peninsula. I even find I miss baseball when I unplug from it for a few days, which I think is a good sign.
That’s not to say all will be rosier from here on out. Today, the Astros host the Cubs, and will give recent call-up Corbin Martin his 4th big league start. Behind him is what can charitably be described as a spring training line-up. This post at Fangraphs details how good the Astros line-up is even if you somehow benched their best players. Take away their top 2, both of whom are MVP candidates, and they’re still absurd. They only start to look human when you remove 6-7 starters. As if to prove the point, that’s exactly what the Astros are doing tonight. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Robinson Chirinos all start on the bench. Alex Bregman will DH, with Yuli Gurriel at 3B and Tony Kemp at 2B (his 5th-ever start there). 28-year old SS Jack Mayfield makes his MLB debut, and C Garrett Stubbs will make his debut as well. Michael Brantley’s still in, but this looks and feels like a September roster call-up game, and why not? The Astros’ playoff odds are essentially 100% now, and it’s still May. Even the A’s recent hot streak can’t really change the math here: the Astros are simply way better than this division, with the Rangers and M’s stepping back, and the Angels stepping all over themselves. I know the M’s are seriously trying to compete right now, but I think this sums up the state of the division pretty well.
Marco Gonzales had a solid start last time out against these Rangers, but lost to the same pairing of Rangers hurlers, Jesse Chavez and Adrian Sampson. The Rangers seem like a good match-up for Marco, given that they have a few all-or-nothing hitters who may be susceptible to a change-of-speeds game, but then you look and see the Rangers are actually the MOST successful team against change-ups. Last time out, he threw a bunch of sinkers, and the pitch worked very well for him, even as the Rangers hit his change. I’ve said it before, but it’s still odd that Gonzales’ change isn’t more effective. It looks like it should be, but the fact that it’s only average at best isn’t new. The development/rebirth of his cutter has been vital to his success, particularly now, as his velocity remains in the high-80s.
I don’t know why Adrian Sampson was so successful against Seattle, throwing 42 fastballs at them, and walking away with a win. We’ll see if playing in Safeco helps the bats; despite his success the other day, batters are slugging over .600 against Sampson’s FB in his career.
1: Smith, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Santana, LF
6: Narvaez, C
7: Bruce, RF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Long, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Ljay Newsome has had an amazing season, and leads all of MiLB in Ks. He’s generally toyed with the Cal League, but even he has one weakness: the Stockton Ports. After a shellacking last night, Newsome’s given up 12 runs in 5 2/3 IP against Stockton. That means he’s given up 10 total runs in 55 1/3 IP. He has an ERA of 19 against Stockton, and an ERA of 1.30 against everyone else. 15 hits in 5 2/3 vs. Stockton, and just 41 hits in 55 1/3 against the rest of the league. Weird.
Justus Sheffield was pretty solid in a loss to Salt Lake, giving up 2 HRs, but only 1 walk vs. 6 Ks in a 5-0 loss. Today, Tacoma got their revenge on getaway day, beating the Bees 13-5. Ian Miller homered, and the R’s DH Roberto Perez drew 2 walks. That’s notable, as he’s just 18, and making his stateside debut this week. He’s off to a good start, getting 5 hits in 17 ABs, with 2 2Bs and a 3B. The walks push his OBP to .368. It’s absurdly early, and he’s more likely to finish the year with Everett or even the AZL M’s, but it’s interesting to see the M’s use DSL youngsters to fill in at Tacoma the way they have.
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I survived the ’62 Mets. I can handle this.