Andrew Moore Joins M’s, Takes Yovani Gallardo’s Rotation Slot
A day or two after calling up Max Povse to shore up the bullpen, the M’s just called up their top starting pitching prospect in the high minors, Andrew Moore. The Oregon State product is taking Yovani Gallardo’s spot in the rotation, per Greg Johns, which would make tomorrow’s game his MLB debut. The M’s have already used 12 different starters this year, but with Christian Bergman struggling and the Super 2 deadline safely past, the M’s decided to call up someone who’s much more of a long-term option than many of the guys who’ve cycled through the 4th-5th rotation slots this year. The M’s haven’t yet said what this means for Gallardo; I assume he’ll move to the pen or maybe a quick trip to the DL.
Moore throws a straight, rising fastball that often sits 89-91, but he averaged 92 in Peoria, so it may sit at the high end of that range in Seattle. He pairs it with a curve in the high 70s, a straight change without much armside run, and Kate Preusser over at LL says he’s been toying with a slider (click that link to see gifs of his mechanics and pitches). His command and location are his best tool by far. He’s walked 8 batters in 8 starts and 48 IP for Tacoma this year, and his 44:8 K:BB ratio has to grab the attention of a front office that’s obsessed with controlling the zone.
That rising fastball and the fact that he’s around the zone so much means that he gives up a ton of fly ball contact. That’s not necessarily bad – it’s a part of the reason his BABIP is so low – but it means he runs the risk of giving up plenty of HRs. You see that reflected in his Steamer projection, for example, and of course he had a string of 8 straight games with a HR-allowed this year across AA and AAA. He’s been pretty good at limiting them (his HR/FB ratio isn’t bad), but given MLB’s HR binge, it’s tough to rely on the Chris Young method of giving up lots of fly balls but very few dingers. I think he’ll probably give up a few, so it’ll be incumbent upon him to limit baserunners and keep his walks to a minimum.
While he’s the M’s best close-to-the-majors SP, his ultimate ceiling isn’t all that high. That’s fine – the M’s don’t need an ace, they need someone who can keep them in games and, ideally, someone who’ll develop into a dependable starter for a few years. Moore’s got a good shot of that, considering his improvements within the system and what seems like intense drive. Just last year, the PCL graduated a number of 23-24 year old guys without huge fastballs but very good command: Dillon Overton, Daniel Mengden, Joe Musgrove, and Kyle Freeland. The first two face-planted, while Musgrove’s been a so-so 5th starter. Freeland’s broken out with Colorado, and actually improved upon the numbers he put up in AAA. None of these guys really pitch like Moore, so the utility of the comps isn’t great, but of the four, Mengden’s probably the closest. Even pitching in a HR-suppressing park for half his games, Mengden gave up 13 HRs in 80 IP and is now back in the PCL. Some version of that’s your pessimistic forecast: walks creep up, HRs flying out of the park everywhere, and a higher BABIP leading to another shot at developing in the minors. Freeland’s the optimistic view, though as a groundballing lefty, probably the least similar.
Christian Bergman’s been optioned to Tacoma to open up a spot on the active roster, while Tyler Cloyd’s been DFA’d to open a 40-man spot. Moore’s done everything expected of him and then some. Seen as a command/control, low-velo/low-ceiling guy, he’s added some oomph to his fastball and is striking guys out in the high minors (something Kyle Freeland didn’t do, for example). I think a lot of people – myself included, to a degree – have been waiting for a hint of a struggle in his ascent up the ladder: AA will be the test…whoops, well, maybe AAA, then? None of it’s slowed him down. He’s earned this shot, and even if he struggles to get acclimated to the fact that even 7-8 hitters can hit the ball over the fence, I have a feeling we’ll be seeing him a lot the next few years.
Game 73, Tigers at Maruninos
Ariel Miranda vs. Jordan Zimmermann, 7:10pm
Last night’s win was keyed, of course, by the two big HRs hit by Mike Zunino, baseball’s RBI leader in the month of June, and, for the second time, seemingly resurrected after a demotion to Tacoma. Zunino’s resurgence remakes this line-up. When the bottom of the line-up is a walking, talking 1-2-3 inning, the team is wholly dependent on its core. When Jarrod Dyson and Zunino are hitting, the opposing team doesn’t get a breather, and that not only helps the M’s run total directly, it has a knock-on effect on the 3-4-5 hitters, too. Thus, answering the question, “Is Zunino fixed?” is a pretty important one.
The short answer is that it’s way too soon to tell. Last year, Zunino came up from Tacoma because the team was desperate, particularly on the heels of the historically awful performance of M’s catchers in 2015. For his first 91 plate appearances (carefully chosen endpoint alert!), Zunino batted .280/.396/.707. The rest of the year, over 101 plate appearances, he collapsed to a .146/.248/.270 line. This has continually been the issue with Zunino. We have a view of him as a high-K, high-HR hitter, and over his career, that’s probably true. That overall average masks the fact that he’s extremely streaky, and subject to long periods without power at all. That is, the Zunino of 2016 (and 2017!) comprises a long stretch of high-K, low-power awfulness, and some high-K, high-power awesomeness. The key is to get more of the latter and less of the former, particularly as his minor league options run out and he can go re-charge and get right in AAA.
It’s interesting, because the one thing Zunino is *extremely* consistent on…well, yes, ok, good point, he’s consistently a risk to strike out. But over many years, he’s had a very consistent batted ball profile, borne of a consistently high launch angle. Mike Zunino is not, and has never been a ground ball hitter. Even in his powerless stretches, he’s hitting the ball in the air. His average launch angle when he was awful in 2016: 21.9 degrees. In his superhuman stretch in the middle of 2016? 21.7 degrees. Early 2017? 19.3 degrees. Recently? 18.7. In every period, he’s amongst the leaders in baseball in this metric, and while they’ve gone down slightly, I don’t think that’s the issue. The issue is how those angles are distributed.
Here’s Zunino early in 2017:
There are some batted balls at that great 30 degree angle, but also a bunch above 60 degrees (pop-ups), and a few at 0 (grounders). Overall, it averages out to 19 degrees.
Here’s Zunino more recently this year:
Now, the batted balls are more tightly grouped from about 10 to 30 degrees. There are still some pop-flies, and a few grounders, but the grouping is much tighter, and it’s bunched around the angles that are conducive to batting average and slugging. Mike Zunino may be slightly lucky during this hot streak, but he’s doing all he can and hitting a lot of dangerous balls in play. In the previous stint, he was probably UNlucky, but even if he got all the expected hits you’d get from a batted ball profile like that, he’d still have been an awful hitter. When Zunino’s on, he’s tracking the ball and putting consistent swings on it, leading to consistently good launch angles and exit velocity (that’s the great thing about consistent contact – it naturally increases exit velocity. The obvious flip-side: pop flies reduce exit velocity). When he’s not, he’s swatting at the ball and producing a lot of mis-hits. The focus for Edgar from here through 2017 MUST be to isolate what he’s doing and how to replicate this. Zunino and Edgar need to know what it looks like when he loses this consistency, and how to get it back. Given the massive swings in production and even expected production based on angle/exit velo, it’s remarkable how minor many of these changes are. That’s nice, I guess, but as we’ve seen, it’s easy to slip back into old habits, and given their subtlety, it’s harder to spot when he does.
Jordan Zimmermann’s having a rough year. We had some fun at Anibal Sanchez’s expense, but Zimmermann’s been the biggest culprit in the Tigers’ rotation’s struggles. He’s allowed 17 HRs thus far (tied with Clayton Kershaw, oddly), which has pushed his FIP up to 5.77 and his WAR down to 0. This isn’t what you want from a pitcher in year 2 of a 5-year, $110 million contract. His velocity dropped ominously in 2016, but it appears to be back, more or less. He still averages 93+ on his fastball, and while he’s dropped his release point, he’s getting more vertical movement. The problem is that his strikeouts have dropped dramatically since his days in the NL with the Nationals. A specific concern has to do with his fastball: batters slugged .465 off of his four-seamer in 2015, and then .604 in 2016, rising to .746 this year.
My initial thought was that he’d bought into the Tigers approach of pitching up in the zone. This was what gave Justin Verlander’s career a second lease on life, and it would make sense for Zimmermann, as he was someone who threw in the top of the zone pretty frequently in the NL: about 44% of his pitches in 2015 were in the upper third of the zone or above. That’s fallen to under 25% this season. That’s odd, as those high pitches aren’t the ones batters are crushing. He does well in the bottom of the zone, but that’s entirely due to his (still good) slider. Low *fastballs* are getting crushed to the tune of a .678 wOBA (“low” defined here as below 2.25 feet, or about the middle of the zone and below). Fastballs HIGHER than the middle of the zone are still hit hard, but a .436 wOBA, while still pretty bad, is a far sight better than .678.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Miranda
Hisashi Iwakuma’s rehab start in Cheney did not go well. He gave up 4 runs in 2 IP, walking 2 and striking out 3, and he gave up a solo HR. As Mike Curto notes, though, some portion of it was due to bad luck in the big 2nd inning in which Salt Lake scored 3 runs. Chase De Jong starts for Tacoma tonight against Dustin Ackley and the Bees.
The damn Naturals from NW Arkansas, always messing things up. Arkansas took a 2-0 lead into the 7th and final inning last night, with Dylan Unsworth pitching a gem. He faltered in that inning, and he and a reliever ultimately coughed up 3 runs, losing the game 3-2. In the 2nd game of the doubleheader, the Naturals jumped ahead early, holding on for another 3-2 win.
Modesto and Clinton were off, as the all-star festivities in their respective leagues kicked off. Both leagues had HR derbies, which are way, way faster than the big league versions, but the story of the game was that players in Visalia for the Cal League game participated in some livestock-related challenges. The planned pig race had to be cancelled, as pigs apparently faint in the 107 degree heat of Visalia, so they replaced it with a chicken race. Modesto’s Reggie McClain, a huge reason why the Nuts won the first half title, took home the coveted title of champion chicken chaser. And they say the minors aren’t very glamorous. Congrats, Reggie.
Everett got blitzed by the Hillsboro Hops, 9-2. 2B Joe Rosa and OF Greifer Andrade are off to good starts, while CF Brayan Hernandez is still getting his timing right.
Game 72, Tigers at Mariners
Sam Gaviglio vs. Anibal Sanchez, 7:10pm
One of the big issues that baseball’s been cogitating about has been the decline in balls in play. So many of the common complaints about baseball in the year 2017 stem from those missing plays; as strikeouts and dingers increase, games get longer, and they *feel* longer still. It often seems like a series of all-or-nothing confrontations – something like a home run derby, maybe, or a kind of exhibition. Here’s a statistical example: Ozzie Smith had 8 seasons with at least 500 assists, including one with 600. Andrelton Simmons has never had a season with 500 assists. There used to be 3-4 SS per year with at least 500, now we get 3-4 such seasons per decade.
This trend’s a long one; HRs dipped after 2010, but K’s have been going up for a generation. When you see something like that, a common question is, “Where does it end?” This kind of eschatological thinking – or maybe it’s just slippery-slopeism – often leads to poor conclusions, but it can be interesting to try to envision a version of baseball that looks nothing like ours, but is played with the same rules. I look back on my earliest years as a baseball fan – so, the early/mid-80s – and it seems pretty much the same, but it’s *already* completely different. It just happened slowly enough that I could never quite see it. No one struck out back then, except for Gorman Thomas. HRs were low compared to other eras (not that I had any first-hand knowledge of other eras), and so speed/defense played more of role in each game. At a 30,000 foot level, the game seemed very different, though I don’t know that we’d notice it too much if we just watched a game from 1984.
But, no, seriously: what would baseball look like if you extrapolated the current K and HR trends out for another 10, 20, 30 years? My guess is it would look something like Anibal Sanchez’s 2017. Sam Gaviglio’s pitched about as decently as anyone could considering he’s given up 9 HRs in just 34 1/3 innings pitched. Anibal will see your puny 2.36 HR/9 mark, Sam, and, with a smirk, go all-in. Sanchez has also allowed 9 HRs thus far, but in just 21 innings, good for a 3.86 HR/9 mark. Yes, yes, fun with small sample sizes – I know. But Sanchez has kept his K% above 20%, and his K/9 is even higher – it’s 9.43/9 IP. Sanchez is simply not allowing too many balls in play. Close to 40% of the PAs against him this year have ended in one of the three true outcomes. Yes, Randy Johnson used to do that sort of a thing, but it looked a bit different. Randy Johnson is transcendent, and thus kind of difficult to use to envision what average players might do in the future; Randy and “Average” are mutually exclusive. Sanchez, though… this could work. You could envision an arms race where batters are selected primarily for power, and with balls in play down, no one would care if you could field. Future Mike Morse could move back to shortstop, and pitchers wouldn’t really be concerned with HRs so long as they K’d enough hulking sluggers. Does this version of baseball sound appealing? No, not to me either, but I want to thank Anibal Sanchez for granting us a sneak peak and giving us a chance to change our ways if we’d like.
Gaviglio’s HRs are too high, but that’s the combination of small sample and marginal ability. I love the way he competes, but it’s going to be tough for him to carve out a lasting role with the M’s. Prove me wrong, Sam!
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Gaviglio
Two big stories in the M’s system. First, Hisashi Iwakuma makes a rehab start in Tacoma tonight against Salt Lake. If you’re in the South Sound, you should check it out. Second, in a rare move (the first for Clinton since the 1960s), the M’s have fired minor league manager Pat Shines, who’d been leading the Clinton Lumberkings. Shines was in his first season in the org, having come over from Miami. Not sure what this was all about. (Hat tip Mike Curto).
The M’s have signed 26 of their 40 draft choices already, including 11 of the first 12. The only one they haven’t inked is 2nd rounder Sam Carlson, but there’s no worry there – he’s just pitching in the highschool playoffs and can sign a pro contract just yet. First-rounder Evan White signed for a few hundred thousand below slot, so the M’s would seem to have plenty of room to sign Carlson within their pool amount. Nice job, M’s, and scouting director Scott Hunter.
Game 71, Mariners at Rangers
Christian Bergman vs. Yu Darvish, 12:05pm
Happy Fathers Day!
After losing the first three games of the series and four in a row overall, the M’s turn to Christian Bergman to stop the skid. Bergman, who got annihilated in a 20-7 loss his last game. The guy now pitching for his job as the M’s wheel of 5th starters continues to spin. Bergman’s big test occurs in Arlington, where the ball’s been flying, and occurs opposite the Rangers’ ace, Yu Darvish. Fangraphs’ odds give the M’s a 36.1% chance in this one, a figure that seems almost charmingly optimistic.
The big M’s transaction of the day is notable not because Rob Whalen was optioned back to the minors (to AA, actually), but because of who’s coming up to replace him. The M’s have brought in an actual prospect, 6’8″ Max Povse, who looked dominant at times this spring and in early April with Arkansas, but has lost a bunch of time with a hamstring injury. He’s thrown just 3 1/3 IP since coming off the DL, and has thrown less than 6 innings in total since May 5th. There are a number of reasons NOT to do something like this, but it seems like the M’s have tired of rotating through fungible, replacement-level starting depth. Rob Whalen, Dillon Overton, Bergman…none of them have been consistently effective, and so the M’s – now that we’re safely past the Super 2 date – will try something different. I worry that given his injury-riddled past 6 weeks, Povse won’t be as effective as he would otherwise be; I worry that they’re putting him in a position to fail. But I sympathize with Dipoto’s plight here, even if it’s at least partially of his own making.
The other story regarding the M’s pitching depth is an easier, better one: Felix Hernandez was again dominant in his 3rd rehab outing, shutting out the Salt Lake Bees over 6 IP, giving up 4 hits, no walks and striking out 8. From all accounts, he was in complete control and ready to head back up I-5 to Seattle.
Darvish is still one of the most compelling pitchers to watch in all of baseball, with the deepest repertoire in the game, and impressive velocity. He’ll be a free agent after this year, and teams are probably already asking Texas about him for the stretch run. With Texas in 2nd place in the West and in the wild card mix, they may not move him unless they get a ridiculous offer, but Darvish is the kind of player that engenders such proposals. Unfortunately for the Rangers, he’s having a down year by his own lofty standards. Darvish’s ERA is more than a run below his FIP (so far, so Rangers), and that FIP’s crept up past 4. It’s never been close to that mark over his career. His K rate’s still great, but it’s declined, and his improvement in walk rate from 2012-2016 is gone, too. His ERA’s been saved by a career high strand rate and a .230 BABIP; he’s still good, but this just isn’t the guy we saw last season, to say nothing of 2014.
As Greg Johns of MLB.com tweeted, the M’s now grade out as baseball’s best defensive OF by both UZR and DRS. Their improvement from a rough start has been consistent and rapid, and the team deserves credit for that. I’m still a bit suspicious of the magnitude of the numbers reported, just because the simple defensive efficiency numbers (the percentage of balls in the air they’ve converted into outs) lags many other teams, especially the Yankees (who are #2 by UZR). The M’s DE on fly balls, per Baseball Prospectus, is .901, good for 10th-best in the league. Oddly, the M’s 17th-ranked OF last year put up a DE of .906 on fly balls. There were 22 teams with a fly ball efficiency of at least .900 in 2016, while just 10 are on pace to do that now.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Smith, SS
SP: Bergman
Felix’s gem gave the Rainiers their 11th shutout victory of 2017. It’s just mid June, and they play in the PCL. Remarkable. Closer Jean Machi has given up just 1 run this year, and now sports an ERA of 0.40.
Nick Neidert’s the big prospect to watch among the M’s MiLB probables. Dylan Unsworth starts in AA, and the intriguing Robert Dugger starts for Clinton. The 18th-round pick from last year’s draft has given up 5 runs in his last 30+ innings, yielding just 20 hits.
Game 70, Mariners at Rangers
Yovani Gallardo vs. Martin Perez, 2:05pm
The M’s face lefty Martin Perez, the one-time super-prospect phenom turned reliably disappointing back of the rotation arm. After flying through the low minors, Perez reached AA at the age of 18. Unfortunately, things never really clicked after that, and he’s had trouble missing bats and staying in the strike zone. With a four seam and swerving sinker at 94 MPH, he’ll always have a job, but at 26 now, the perennially hoped-for development or improvement may not be in the cards.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Heredia, CF
9: Motter, SS
M’s have their righty-heavy line up in against Perez, who’s traditionally had sizable platoon splits. Not this year, which is probably just random, but it’s accompanied with an odd drop in his GB%.
Game 69, Mariners at Rangers
James Paxton vs. Tyson Ross, 5:05pm
It’s time for the season’s nicest game, wherein James Paxton will again match up with an injury-riddled cast-off who signed for cheap with the Rangers this off-season. Back in April, he faced off with Andrew Cashner, the ex-Padre who made his season debut and kept the Rangers around, but Paxton fired the best start for a Mariner pitcher all year, so it didn’t matter. Today, Paxton matches up with, er, ex-Padre Tyson Ross, who’s thrown 5 1/3 MLB innings at all since September of 2015. Minor league rehab appearances bump that total to 24 IP, but Ross is still a complete unknown at this point. Yes, he was once an all-star caliber starter, whose 2014-15 peak produced nearly 8 fWAR. But the last time he was on a mound in a competitive baseball game, he gave up 10 hits and 8 runs in 5 innings against Oklahoma City. He’s walked 11, plunked 2, and K’d 11 in a handful of PCL starts this year, but here he is, because the Rangers need help, and at least you can still dream on some upside here, even if it takes him a while to find his footing.
Because it’s the Rangers, it might play out that way. By FIP, the Rangers rotation (excepting Yu Darvish, of course) has been an absolute debacle, akin to the Orioles’ 5-headed monstrosity. By ERA, though, they’re fine – especially considering their home park. By K rate, they’ve just passed the Twins to move into last place in the American League, and by K-BB%, it’s really just them and the Orioles fighting off in the ugliest, most pointless battle imaginable. To make matters worse, they’re right up there with Seattle in HR rate, meaning they make up for hard contact what they give away in free bases. I don’t understand how the Rangers aren’t where the A’s are right now, is what I’m trying to say.
They may not be beating their BaseRuns estimate to a pulp the way they have in recent years, but they’re still peppering it with jabs and well-timed passive-aggressive comments. This is a statistical incongruity, and there are many such outliers we can point to with the Rangers. Perhaps the biggest is also the one we can’t really hold against them – the remarkable way Adrian Beltre’s aged. Beltre’s tenure with the Rangers has taken him from Hall-of-Very-Good or should-be-in-but-won’t-be to what I expect is a fairly easy Hall of Fame case. He’s accrued 34 fWAR and 38 bWAR for the Rangers, waaaay more than he did with either the Dodgers or Mariners, and the difference in a per-year or per-game basis is massive. He’s done it all *after* turning 32. He’s been incredible offensively and defensively and, until this season, remarkably durable. I think you can make the case that he’s the best free agent signing in recent memory, and far and away the best the Rangers ever made. That’s really nice for the Rangers and all of that, but because Beltre’s so good, it’s hard to see this as a transcendentally lucky thing – that’s what greatness do, to paraphrase Jarrod Dyson. It laughs at your regression and aging curves – at least for a while.
But Beltre isn’t what’s *made* these Rangers teams of recent vintage. When I think of these teams, I think of all the times that the Rangers have turned to a middling prospect, a post-injury or post-stardom vet who’s given them a bit more than the Rangers dared hope for. And then, like the old fairy tale, they turn back into a pumpkin and vanish. In 2011 it was Alexi Ogando, a promising reliever pressed into service as a starter. He gave them about 170 very good innings, accruing 3.3 fWAR and then *never again breaking 1.0*. He started again in 2013 and put up a FIP defying ERA, but is now pitching in South Korea. In 2012, it was David Murphy’s turn. After a 93 wRC+ in 2011, the OF saw his walk rate, isolated power and BABIP all rise simultaneously, pushing him near a 4 fWAR season. The next year, he was worth 0.3, and then fell again to -0.6 in 2014. After that 3.8 win 2012, he was worth less-than-replacement level through the end of his career. In 2013, it was reliever Tanner Scheppers, who posted a 1.88 ERA in 76 games. Despite a low K rate and a FIP in the high 3’s, Scheppers was a brilliant set-up man for closer Joe Nathan, and helped the Rangers win 91 games. Of course, he never again had an ERA under 4, let alone 3 or 2, and, like Murphy, was worth negative WAR after that breakout season. In 2014, the Rangers collapsed, but they still got 126 innings and 22 solid starts from low-tier prospect Nick Tepesch, who filled in for a bunch of injured starters and ran a 4.36 ERA or 1 bWAR, helping the Rangers avoid the fate of the Astros of that period. You know where this is going: Tepesch was worth either negative WAR (BBREF) or 0 WAR (FG) for the rest of his career. In 2015, the Rangers traded some minor league spare parts for declining ex-ace Yovani Gallardo, and watched as his K rate continued to fall as his walk rate rose. A high strand rate and a great HR/FB ratio meant his ERA was well below his 4.0 FIP, so while his fWAR was “only” 2.4 (solidly above average), he was worth 4.0 by bWAR. In the 1.4 or so years since then, whatever FIP-busting magic he had in Texas has long since gassed off, leaving him with -2.1 bWAR and a modest 1.1 fWAR that politely pretends not to notice the ugly runs-allowed total he’s been responsible for. Last year, it was Colby Lewis’ turn (he could’ve been included if we went back to 2010, too), as he tossed 19 starts of FIP-crushing, 84-MPH fastball powered nonsense, worth 2.4 bWAR in half a year. This year, you could point to either Nick Martinez or Austin Bibens-Dirkx (yayyy!) as candidates for Most Rangers performance of the year.
No, David Murphy or Tanner Scheppers didn’t MAKE the Rangers a good team. They’ve had actually good players that’ve done the big lift. But the Rangers have consistently squeezed…something out of players who don’t evidence a lot of pure talent (or, in the case of Scheppers, are continually injured). This is *exactly* what the M’s failed to do for so long, and so the contrast is all the clearer for M’s fans. The M’s got Chris Iannetta from the Angels for a fair free agent contract. The Rangers got peak Mike Napoli from the Angels-via-Toronto for essentially nothing. Why do good things happen to bad people, and all of that. So, again, Tyson Ross hasn’t pitched effectively since September of 2015, and there’s no clear reason to believe he will suddenly start now. But he may start now.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: PAXTON
Minor League starters include Reggie McClain for Modesto and Martin Suarez for Everett – get over to Everett and enjoy the first Northwest League series of the year. Yeah, Hillsboro beat them in yesterday’s opener, which I should’ve covered more, but tonight’s game is Kyle Lewis bobblehead night. The AquaSox have Brayan Hernandez as the big prospect star thus far, though they’ll get reinforcements from this year’s draft as those players sign and report.
Hillsboro won the NWL opener 10-3, as Ryne Inman got touched for 3 HRs. Clinton won in 11 innings over Beloit. Rayder Ascanio had the MiLB performance of the night for Modesto with a 4-5 game including a HR.
Game 68, Mariners at Twins
Ariel Miranda vs. Jose Berrios, 10:10am
After yesterday’s win, the M’s go for a 3-1 series win today against the Twins’ young ace-in-training, Jose Berrios.
Berrios made 14 starts last year, but a combination of wildness and HR problems made it a shockingly poor debut. He’d flown through the minors, and unlike so many Twins’ pitchers, Berrios had no problem missing bats. If you’ve seen his curve/slider, that’s probably not a surprise. But Twins fans probably couldn’t feel too confident after his 14 starts produced an ERA over 8.
After all the discussion about pitchers being harmed by pitching in the World Baseball Classic (Drew Smyly), Berrios may be an example of the opposite. He looked dominant in the WBC, staying in the zone, getting whiffs on fastball and slurve alike. He’s maintained that this season, and while his ERA’s much lower than his FIP, he looks a lot more like the pitcher Twins fans have been looking forward to.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Miranda
Game 67, Mariners at Twins + Draft Recap, More on Target Field
Sam Gaviglio vs. Ervin Santana, 5:10pm
With Christian Bergman continuing to be perhaps the least consistent starter in baseball, the M’s again turn to Sam Gaviglio for help in stabilizing a struggling rotation. With yesterday’s disastrous start, Bergman now has game scores of 1 and -21 on the year, but also starts of 86 and 73. This means that Bergman’s tossed the third-best start of any Mariner this year (behind Paxton’s best game and Ariel Miranda’s CG), but also the two WORST starts (worse than Heston/De Jong).
The M’s face Ervin Santana tonight, owner of the 3rd best ERA in the AL behind Dallas Keuchel and Jason Vargas (wha?). Santana’s running a career-high walk rate, and his strikeouts are down from recent years, so it’s not a huge shock that his FIP doesn’t support that gaudy ERA. In the past, we’d point to that BABIP of .154 (holy crap!) and note he was a walking lesson in the power of regression, but his statcast numbers show he’s done a bit to earn a low BABIP. Not a .154 BABIP, but now we can differentiate between balls in play, we know Santana’s done a good job of muting hard contact, as this Tony Blengino article describes. One of the ways he does this is by generating a flurry of pop-ups, which have an expected BABIP of essentially zero. That helps.
I mentioned this before Game 1 of the series, but Santana’s a great example of a pitcher who seems to tailor his approach to his home park. Target Field’s statcast-derived park factors put it firmly in the pitcher’s park category, and this interview with Brian Dozier talks about this from a batter’s point of view. I’ll stipulate to all of that, and that a ball hit at X MPH may go further in Arizona or Texas than it does at Target Field. But I have to point out, and god knows we’ve seen it in this series, people are pinging well-struck balls to all corners of this supposed pitcher’s park. When Santana’s at home, 47.7% of his balls in play are fly balls, and only 35.2% are grounders. On the road, he gives up 35.7% flies, and a shocking 54.5% grounders. He actively courts fly balls at home, and seems to prefer grounders away from home. Makes sense, though, right? HR-suppressing park, all of that? Here’s the problem: Santana’s HR per fly ball rate is HIGHER at home. Where he gives up all of those fly balls. This has led to a 1.31 HR/9 mark at home and a 0.81 figure on the road. His ERA, FIP, whatever you want to look at, are all worse – much worse – at home.
This isn’t just Santana, of course. I mentioned it first when talking about Hector Santiago, and while Phil Hughes’ batted ball numbers aren’t so skewed at home, he’s clearly giving up much harder contact there. This seems like a case of well-intended, even data-supported advice gone wrong. If coaches or even players believe that a strike won’t hurt them because of the marine layer, a high CF wall, deep power alleys, a great CF, etc., I wonder if they start to pitch differently. To check this, I looked at the expected wOBA of all balls in play, by stadium. Detroit ranks #1 at an astonishing .366, while Target Field’s second at .337 (three parks are below .300, headlined by San Diego’s .283 mark). Of course, both the Tigers and Twins have some pitchers who like to pitch up in the zone, so what happens if we only look at visiting pitchers? What do they give up? Detroit now goes all the way up to .384, while Yankee Stadium slots in at #2, followed by Oakland (?), Washington, and Arizona. Target Field’s 6th, at .330. So, visiting pitchers give up hard contact there, but visiting pitchers are evidently expecting Comerica to do pretty much all of the work.
If we look at *home* pitchers, Detroit…Detroit is still first, and is just about any way you slice the numbers. The Tigers staff does a lot better than the visitors, but a .349 xwOBA isn’t great. Target field shoots back up to #2 now, with Twins’ pitchers yielding contact expected to produce a .344 wOBA. In terms of actual production, Twins pitchers have yielded the highest wOBA to visiting batters, at .358. It’s like the idea that they play in a pitcher’s park causes them to pitch in such a way that more than counteracts the factors that make it a pitcher’s park.
For both Comerica and Target Field, the effect seems really huge, and while we don’t have a lot of years of data, it seems to be somewhat consistent from year to year. Yes, pitching philosophies come into play here, but the Twins pitchers yielding more HRs at home – even controlling for the number of fly balls – is pretty remarkable. I still wonder if this wasn’t partially responsible for Safeco Field’s dingerfest in 2016, with M’s pitchers striking out more/walker fewer at home, but also giving up more home runs.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Gaviglio
Wyatt Mills, the M’s 3rd round pick out of Gonzaga, is set to sign for $125,000 on Friday, per Greg Lee of the Spokesman-Review. That frees up roughly $450,000 in bonus pool space, money that will likely go to 2nd rounder, Sam Carlson, who visited the M’s at Target Field yesterday. If the M’s want to get Carlson the roughly $1 million above his slot value (to push him into late 1st-round territory) AND avoid the big penalties that attach if a team exceeds its bonus pool by 5%, they’re getting close, but need to save a bit more with their other first-10-round picks. Senior 10th rounder Randy Bell is a likely candidate. Here’s a quick table showing the top 10 picks, their slot values, and the pool+5% amount that functions as a hard cap on draft spending.
| 2017 MLB Draft: Seattle Mariners | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round | Player | HS/Col./JC | Position | Slot Value | Signed For |
| 1 | Evan White | Col. (UK) | 1B/OF | $3,333,200 | ? |
| 2 | Sam Carlson | HS (MN) | SP | $1,206,900 | ? |
| 3 | Wyatt Mills | Col. (GON) | RP | $579,800 | $125,000 |
| 4 | Seth Elledge | Col. (DBU) | RP/SP | $428,900 | ? |
| 5 | David Banuelos | Col. (LBSU) | C | $320,300 | ? |
| 6 | Oliver Jaskie | Col. (UM) | SP | $245,600 | ? |
| 7 | Max Roberts | JC (WVC) | SP | $192,200 | ? |
| 8 | Billy Cooke | Col. (CCU) | SP | $156,500 | ? |
| 9 | Jorge Benitez | HS (FL) | SP | $140,900 | ? |
| 10 | Randy Bell | Col. (USA) | SP | $133,000 | ? |
Total Bonus Pool: $6,737,300
Maximum Spend without losing draft pick: $7,074,165
Today’s roster move: swingman Casey Lawrence, who got steamrolled in last night’s game, heads back to Tacoma in exchange for Chase De Jong.
Nick Neidert got knocked around in Modesto’s loss, and the Rainiers’ bats couldn’t get going in a 3-1 loss in El Paso, but Arkansas beat NW Arkansas easily behind a great start from Dylan Unsworth and another Grand Slam from Tyler Marlette. Dario Pizzano had 4 hits, too. Max Povse headlines tonight’s starters, as he’s making his first appearance since May 20th, when he suffered a hamstring pull. Tyler Cloyd, Brett Ash, Brandon Miller and Pablo Lopez round out the M’s affiliate starting pitchers.
Game 66, Mariners at Twins
Christian Bergman vs. Kyle Gibson, 5:10pm
Last night’s game went well, though Gibson’s the guy who shut down the M’s over 6 IP 5 days ago, in what was easily his best start of the year. Remember that Gibson was struggling so badly, he was demoted to AAA after spending years as a promising middle-of-the-rotation guy for the Twins.
The game itself is a nice breather from obsessing about the draft, but until it starts, let’s continue obsessing about the draft. The M’s have made several picks today, including Gonzaga senior reliever Wyatt Mills in the 3rd round. As Mills wasn’t a top-200/500 prospect and because he’s a senior, it seems pretty obvious the M’s are trying to save a bit of money to give an overslot bonus to 2nd rounder Sam Carlson. Carlson was expected to go in the first round, and may still have designs on a first-round bonus. The gap between what he’d get in the 22-30 range and what his #55 slot would give him is roughly $1 million, and with the M’s total bonus pool only $6.7 M, you understand the desire to start saving money early.
MLB really tweaked how the slot values step down this year. Last year, the #1 pick slot was just over $9 million. This year, it was easily under $8 million. Other picks, including the middle of the first round, saw large increases – #17’s slot value is about $800,000 higher than it was last year. This kind of compressing of slot values seems like it’d have an impact on the M’s ability to go overslot and sign Carlson, but the more I look into it, it would’ve been just about the same last year – they’d need to take about 22% of the combined value of the top 2 picks to sign Carlson to a late-first-round bonus in either year. Still, with the M’s not having a competitive balance pick or another first round (how did the Astros get *four* picks yesterday?), and with slot values dropping fast, they need to start squirreling away some savings. JY’s got you covered with the draft summary post below – check the comments for JY’s pithy comments on each pick. I’ll try to summarize the first 10 picks some time soon.
Another day at Target Field, and another barrage of barreled-up balls flying around the spacious outfield. Let’s do that again, M’s. Gibson’s a sinkerballer with a solid change/slider to back it up. He was a big time prospect, especially since he had mid-90s velo at some point, and thus his solid but unspectacular numbers – until this year’s collapse- seem kind of disappointing. That’s unfair to Gibson, but he was someone who seemed on the verge of breaking out, and then went in reverse.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Bergman
I should take this opportunity to say that I thought the M’s had a great first day of the 2017 draft. A polished college bat and a high-ceiling prep pitcher who no one expected to be there at 55 adds some balance and impact to a system that sorely needs both. I’ve seen some question Evan White’s swing-and-miss after some mediocre K:BB ratios in his first two years at UK, but I’m not too worried about it. The overall rate was low, and while he didn’t have huge walk totals, his bat-to-ball ability can’t be too bad if he put up the stats he did in a great college conference. Thanks to changes in college bats, it’s really hard to compare players across eras (meaning beyond 5-6 years ago), so another gap-hitting 1B like Justin Smoak’s college numbers look totally different. But I expect White to move fairly quickly, and I’m not concerned about the glut of corner players like DJ Peterson, Dan Vogelbach et al. The M’s got a very good player, and they didn’t let their own current 40-man enter into their decision.
Sam Carlson’s exciting, as a right hander with a great FB and what sounds like a very good change-up. I’m a sucker for a change, and it’s rare for a high schooler to have an offspeed pitch as his putaway pitch.
The 2017 Draft: Days Two and Three, Open Thread
Since interest tends to dwindle as the draft goes on, I figured I would condense these and we’ll see if interested parties still post come Wednesday, when I fully expect the Mariners to select Gunnar Buhner in the 19th round.
Gosh, what will happen today? It’s difficult to guess at although one mode behind the Mariners drafts of late has been to go hard on the Day One picks and from there take signability selections that might help gain some maneuvering room on the bonus pool. Given that Carlson was projected as a first-rounder, it wouldn’t be a shock to me to see some of the same now, and I’m okay with that. To get those two nominally in system (we’ll wait for the signing) is a big deal and helps us both now and later. Whatever happens beyond this is gravy, although it bears mentioning that the Mariners have had successes on what is now the draft’s second day, and under McNamara’s guidance as well (Yes, I know Scott Hunter is the guy now, but Mac remains around). To name a few, we’ve had Kyle Seager, James Paxton, Carter Capps, Carson Smith, Edwin Diaz, Chris Taylor, Emilio Pagan, and Dan Altavilla. All were day two selections and some were merely expected to take the contract and get to work. They’ve worked out okay for us.
If you’re looking for local connections, Washington catcher Joey Morgan is still available as is Seattle U LHP Tarik Skubal. I have some faith in the Zunino turnaround and have had moments watching games recently that have made me think “whoa, that was Edgar-like,” but I think that catcher is a position that perhaps ought to be addressed with one of our first ten picks here. Of course, we haven’t done our mid-Atlantic thing yet so for all I know we’ll kick the tires on Maryland SS Kevin Smith, or South Carolina RHP Tyler Johnson, or Old Dominion SS Zach Rutherford, or Virginia CF/SS Ernie Clement. Or maybe we’ll just go guns ablazin’ into the D-II ranks again and see what we uncover there. I’m not too picky and scouting is about as inexact a science as we have, so let’s see what happens and move from there.
Day Two Review:
Round 3: RHP Wyatt Mills, Gonzaga, 6’4″, 185 lbs, 1/25/95
Round 4: RHP Seth Elledge, Dallas Baptist, 6’3″, 230 lbs, 5/20/96
Round 5: C David Banuelos, Long Beach, R/R, 6’0″, 205 lbs, 10/1/96
Round 6: LHP Oliver Jaskie, Michigan, 6’4″, 215 lbs, 11/17/95
Round 7: LHP Max Roberts, Wabash Valley CC, 6’5″, 160 lbs, 7/23/97
Round 8: CF Billy Cooke, Coastal Carolina, R/R, 5’10”, 175 lbs, 9/26/95
Round 9: LHP Jorge Benitez, Leadership Christian Academy, 6’3″, 155 lbs, 6/1/99
Round 10: RHP Randy Bell, South Alabama, 5’10”, 190 lbs, 2/11/95
As we get into Day Three, one thing to keep in mind is that teams can sign any players beyond the 11th round for $100k without being penalized. If they do exceed that marker, then the penalty goes against their pool for the first ten rounds, so any money saved early on can effectively be re-allocated to later rounds if the need arises. It’s one reason why you sometimes see more preps later on and a lot of senior signings in rounds 3-10. For added flavor, since I listed notable picks of Day Two, here are picks in Day Three that have been worthwhile: Keone Kela (who ended up with the Rangers, as we know), Dominic Leone, and a host of guys still in the minors who remain interesting like Zach Littell, whom we traded to the Yankees, and Ian Miller, who is probably a future fourth OF at the very least.
Also, as one final caveat, the Everett Aquasox open this Thursday, but I’ve seen the opening day roster and it is presently more than half recent DSL prospects. I think that waiting a little bit before trying to break out a team preview would be a good idea.
Day Three Review:
Round 11: LHP JP Sears, The Citadel, 5’11”, 180 lbs, 2/19/96
Round 12: RHP Darren McCaughan, Long Beach, 6’1″, 200 lbs, 3/18/96
Round 13: RHP Luis Alvarado, Nebraska, 6’4″, 180 lbs, 1/5/97
Round 14: C Trevor Casanova, El Camino CC, L/R, 6’0″, 200 lbs, 6/22/96
Round 15: RHP Tommy Romero, Eastern Florida State CC, 6’2″, 225 lbs, 7/8/97
Round 16: LHP Orlando Razo, UC Davis, 5’11”, 185 lbs, 2/7/95
Round 17: RHP Jamal Wade, Maryland, 6’0″, 205 lbs, 2/8/96
Round 18: CF Myles Christian, Olive Branch HS, L/R, 6’2″, 180 lbs, 2/26/98
Round 19: SS Kevin Santa, Tampa, L/R, 5’10”, 180 lbs, 3/9/95
Round 20: C Troy Dixon, St Johns, 6’2″, 205 lbs, 4/26/95
Round 21: SS Connor Hoover, North Georgia, L/R, 5’10”, 185 lbs, 7/18/96
Round 22: SS Johnny Adams, Boston College, R/R, 6’0″, 200 lbs, 9/2/94
Round 23: RHP Sam Delaplane, Eastern Michigan, 5’11”, 175 lbs, 3/27/95
Round 24: SS Louis Boyd, Arizona, R/R, 5’10”, 170 lbs, 5/4/94
Round 25: RHP Bryan Pall, Michigan, 6’1″, 215 lbs, 10/28/95
Round 26: RHP Austin Hutchison, U Mt Olive, 6’1″, 205 lbs, 4/9/95
Round 27: RHP Collin Kober, McNeese St., 6’1″, 185 lbs, 9/8/94
Round 28: CF Johnny Slater, Michigan, 6’1″, 185 lbs, 8/9/95
Round 29: RHP David Gerber, Creighton, 6’1″, 200 lbs, 9/24/94
Round 30: RHP Scott Boches, Marist, 6’5″, 205 lbs, 10/17/94
Round 31: 3B Ryan Costello, Central Connecticut St., L/R, 6’2″, 200 lbs, 6/13/96
Round 32: 1B Ryan Garcia, Point Loma Nazarene, L/L, 6’2″, 205 lbs, 7/8/95
Round 33: LHP Chris Castellanos, Stanford, 5’10”, 185 lbs, 5/8/95
Round 34: LHP David Hesslink, MIT, 6’2″, 165 lbs, 4/12/95
Round 35: RHP Hunter Lonigro, Connelsville Area School, 6’3″, 190 lbs, 10/29/98
Round 36: CF Heston Kjerstad, Canyon Randall HS, S/R, 6’3″, 180 lbs, 2/12/99
Round 37: CF Jesse Franklin, Seattle Prep, L/L, 6’2″, 205 lbs, 12/1/98
Round 38: LHP Kolby Somers, Century HS, 6’1″, 195 lbs, 6/3/99
Round 39: SS Jack Smith, Mercer Island HS, R/R, 6’2″, 185 lbs, 7/26/99
Round 40: 3B Zach Needham, Edmonds CC, S/R, 6’2″, 205 lbs, 6/7/97
Even in the best of years, even when it was fifty rounds loaded into a single day, the conclusion of the draft can be best described as putting me into a kind of stupor, which is no slight to any of the personnel or players involved, but rather an acknowledgement of the mass of information one is expected to absorb in a small span of time. It’s also too large a data pool to be able to craft a narrative from so instead I’ll leave with these parting remarks.
* I previously presented the organization as being at a crossroads where they would do well to decide whether or not they were going to invest heavily in the high school ranks and more long-range projects or whether they would continue to buoy themselves on college players who more readily provide organization depth. This draft really looks to be more of the latter, although there are a few interesting spots here and there like Jamal Wade being a recent outfielder, Alvarado being a recent infielder, and Max Roberts from the second day of the draft being just nineteen. You might also note that Roberts and Carlson are both Driveline guys, joining Andrew Moore in system, and that amidst the velocity renaissance the league is having, it’s possible that what works for some will catch on further. The Mariners didn’t spend much time in the prep ranks, but neither are all of their college selections “finished products.” Although a lot of them are.
* McNamara drafts were heavy on D-II and mid-Atlantic schools, whereas if there’s one thing that you’re likely to notice, glancing over this list for Scott Hunter, it’s that there are an awful lot of selections out of the state of Michigan, much like Tampa used to continually raid Washington state in the MLB draft. I don’t get it precisely, but I speculated that it could be a Madeja thing and I’ll stick to that notion. For whatever else can be said, the fact that the organization is drafting so many players from one particular college would seem to suggest that they saw a lot of them, enough to get to know them and have that familiarity with them edge out other considerations.
* Taking stock of the trends that emerged: Pitchers who know the strike zone, outfield playmakers, athleticism at positions that don’t always demand it.
* Probably the most interesting player brought to us by the D-II ranks is Ryan Garcia, who like Evan White, is a slick defender at first who is likely to save you some runs on the infield. It should be noted that Hutchison is also from the same school that formerly brought us Carter Capps.
* The answer to the odd question of “what are we doing drafting a guy out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology?” is that he’s already on payroll, or rather, he loved Randy Johnson and spent some time working on stuff like 3D-mapping of pitch planes, run projections, and computer-aided shifting, and so now he’s part of our analytics department. Cool beans.
* As the Mariners have been wont to do of late, the mid-to-late-30s contained a run on prep prospects, largely local ones, on the off-chance that they can be signed out of whatever other college they were committed to. Don’t read too much into it, nor should you expect much to come out of it, but sometimes they do play.