More projection goodness (badness)
DMZ · March 31, 2007 at 6:02 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Over at the Replacement Level Yankees blog, check out this post which projects 2007 standings using Diamond Mind Baseball and a variety of projection methods for player performances. Short story: M’s look bad and win the AL West ~6% of the time. As always, please don’t take exercises like this too seriously.
Comments
19 Responses to “More projection goodness (badness)”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I keep thinking “Gee, maybe it wouldn’t be too bad if the M’s tanked this season. I’m sick of the team’s management.”
Yet whenever I see a prediction like that, or PECOTA’s, it just makes me depressed.
The good news…. It looks like 86 wins is projected to take the division… there is hope….
Maybe I’m in complete denial, but I don’t see how this team is going to finish with fewer than 79 wins.
Yeah, the offense is horrible, but it’s not that different from last year. Jose Guillen is a better hitter than Jeremy Reed. Vidro is awful, but he’s probably going to hit better than the Dinosaur did.
Everyone system has the M’s regressing, but that seems odd when there’s nothing for them to regress from.
I think they’ll break 80 wins. 81-81. But Hargrove will still get fired somewhere in there.
Then I predict they’ll finish 6 back. I think it will be Anaheim’s turn this year. Beyond that the order of finish is up in the air. And who cares after that anyway because the wild card isn’t coming from the west this year.
They’ll struggle to score enough runs, the pitching is much different, but all the weight is on Felix and Weaver, Ramirez and Batista are not very good. Were it not for Bill Bavasi, Mr. Washburn would probably be sweating out a decision this weekend.
says Gookie Dawkins.
#3: The problem isn’t regression of the offense so much as regression in the bullpen and possibly even the starting rotation. It appears highly likely that the bullpen will be significantly worse than last year, and it is quite possible that Weaver, Batista and HoRam will perform no better (or even worse) than Meche, Moyer, and Baek/Woods/Piniero. To blow $110 million in payroll on this bunch is beyond understanding. Do we really think that they could do much worse with a $60 million dollar payroll?
It appears highly likely that the bullpen will be significantly worse than last year
Well, Reitsma isn’t Soriano, that’s for sure, and Sherrill’s spring troubles are worrisome. But Mateo will be (mis-)used just as much as last year. It just comes down to Putz’ elbow in the end.
and it is quite possible that Weaver, Batista and HoRam will perform no better (or even worse) than Meche, Moyer, and Baek/Woods/Piniero.
So, these are xFIPs for the last three years for three groups of players: Moyer/Pineiro/Meche and Batista/HoRam/Weaver I.
5.26, 5.14, 5.324.48, 4.59, 4.92
5.10, 5.51, 4.79
4.57, 4.30, 4.73
5.11, 4.27, 4.88
4.53, 4.68, 4.94
Yeah, one stat, small sample size theater, blah blah blah, but it does suggest these three pitchers are actually better than what the M’s ran out there in 2006.
Assuming that HoRam’s labrum doesn’t look like pulled pork or Weaver doesn’t look like the crappy Anaheim version, or course.
The lineup is better (but not as good as it easily could have been)
The rotation is a push
The bullpen is worse
I see a repeat of last year.
From the write up this line jumped out at me:
“I thought Juan Pierre was a ten win upgrade” – eh?! I can’t make sense of that.
we should trust something from the Replacement Level Yankees? but, everyone knows the Mariners and Yankees just can’t get along — why, to quote my favorite Big Baseball Movie, the classic “Joe Torre: curveballs along the way”:
I love that in 1000 simulations, the Royals and Devil Rays didn’t win their divisions or the wild card even once!
M’s are going to win the division this year.
M’s are going to win less than 77 games this year.
Hm, that combined projection shows the M’s scoring the least number of runs of any AL team. Ouch.
14… maybe that includes the “Willie Bloomquist as McLemore circa 2001” idea?
I don’t feel bad, I think that’s optimistic!
Here’s not how to feel bad — watch every game, and route for the M’s to lose. Every loss will then feel good — and will perhaps bring about change for next year. We need change — and I think we all know where we need it. Heads need to roll.
One obvious thing about the AL West is that no one is going a strong season, and if (this is a big if, I know) the Mariners can hover around .500, who knows, going into September,they might have a chance. My prediction is the M’s win 78/80 this season. The extra wins over last year will come from Felix being +8 in wins this year.
I love that in 1000 simulations, the Royals and Devil Rays didn’t win their divisions or the wild card even once!
And thus the flaw in these 1000 season simulations as such. You’re just looking at the degree in which luck/variance affects the win total. If everyone on the Royals (for example) performs at expectations, they CAN’T win the division. The thing is, the variance when the season actually happens isn’t whether they get lucky and happen to win a few more games. It’s how healthy they stay and to what degree players exceed or miss they’re projections. If Greinke is healthy and a solid #2 and Alex Gordon is run away rookie of the year, and a couple other things go right, that’s a much different team that anyone is projecting.