Pitching Projections
Dave · February 28, 2007 at 11:21 am · Filed Under Mariners
The Community Projection sheet for Felix Hernandez has been sent to the masses, as we’re moving on to the pitching staff beginning today. Before you go entering your projections, however, read Jeff’s little rundown on projecting doubles and triples. Because we’ve got some plans for the projections once they’re all done, we need raw data more than we need projected ERA, so we’re counting on you guys to do a good job of entering realistic projections for total number of hits allowed broken down by hit type.
We still want this to be your opinion, but if you’re not sure how many doubles you think a pitcher will allow, don’t just put any number in there – make it an informed guess.
Just don’t be like DMZ and peg him with 450 strikeouts.
Man, a lot of people think Felix’s RA is going to exceed his components again.
I received the email and immediately clicked on the link. 25 people were already in the google spreadsheet ahead of me.
I think everyone is ready for the season to start.
2 – Isn’t that the nature of groundballers? Looking at the top 20 groundballers in the league, many of them have a higher RA than FIP. Check it out:
Derek Lowe – 4.00 RA/3.72 FIP
Brandon Webb – 3.49 RA/3.20 FIP
Chien Wang – 3.80 RA/3.97 FIP
Jake Westbrook – 4.51 RA/3.93 FIP
Aaron Cook – 4.53 RA/4.11 FIP
Felix Hernandez – 4.95 RA/3.99 FIP
Tim Hudson – 5.32 RA/4.49 FIP
Roy Halladay – 3.35 RA/3.65 FIP
Clay Hensley – 3.85 RA/4.11 FIP
Chris Carpenter – 3.29 RA/3.47 FIP
Paul Maholm – 5.01 RA/4.77 FIP
Miguel Batista – 5.06 RA/4.52 FIP
Zach Duke – 4.85 RA/4.12 FIP
Kenny Rogers – 4.28 RA/4.77 FIP
Andy Pettitte – 4.79 RA/4.08 FIP
Erik Bedard – 4.22 RA/3.71 FIP
Roy Oswalt – 3.10 RA/3.32 FIP
Jeremy Bonderman – 4.37 RA/3.31 FIP
Dontrelle Willis – 4.27 RA/4.30 FIP
Joel Pineiro – 6.68 RA/5.12 FIP
Out of the top 20 in GB%, only really 6 (Dontrelle Willis is close enough to even) outperformed their FIP (Wang, Halladay, Hensley, Carpenter, Rogers, and Oswalt).
Shouldn’t RA almost always be worse than the components, since it includes unearned runs?
Yeah. I was having a pretty stupid Wednesday when I wrote that.
Grounball pitchers usually give up more unearned runs than flyball pitchers.