Randy Johnson: Yes, Please
If you haven’t heard, Randy Johnson is not only available, but is apparently looking to move back to the west coast, closer to his family, and presumably would prefer a team that spends spring training in his home state.
An above average left-handed starter? Check.
Short term commitment? Check.
Geographic nature of area appealilng? Check.
Big name acquisition to potentially excite fan base? Check.
Hall of Fame pitcher with a chance to end a great career where it began to flourish? Check.
Randy Johnson isn’t the same guy who we remember being the most dominating pitcher of the mid-90s, the guaranteed win who made you want to go to the Kingdome on an 80 degree day and cheer for a dude with a mullet. But he’s still one of the better pitchers in the American League. Really.
Among AL pitchers in 2006, Randy Johnson ranked 11th in strikeout rate and 18th in Fielding Independant ERA. His 4.32 FIP put him in the same category as guys like Ervin Santana and Vicente Padilla and ahead of Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Justin Verlander. His ERA of 5.00 wasn’t nearly as impressive, but if you look at his line, there’s one number that stands out:
205 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 61.8% LOB%
Nobody in the American League stranded less baserunners than Randy Johnson. His LOB% of 61.8% is off the charts. Joel Pineiro, for all his horribleness, stranded 63.8% of baserunners. You can generally calculate a player’s LOB% fairly well by using his BB, K, and HR rates, which you could call expected left on base rate. Randy Johnson’s xLOB% was 72%, and the difference between his expected strand rate and his actual strand rate was higher than any pitcher in baseball.
You can think this proves some kind of lack of skill if you want, but it’s not – it’s mostly random variation, and I’d gladly put $100 on a bet that Randy Johnson won’t post the lowest LOB% in the American League in 2007.
The same effect that artificially deflated Jarrod Washburn’s ERA in 2005 pushed Randy Johnson’s ERA higher in 2006. Johnson isn’t an an all-star anymore, but he’s still a very effective starting pitcher, better than any of these clowns who are getting long term, big money deals as free agents this winter.
If the Mariners are serious about adding another starting pitcher to their rotation, Randy Johnson is the obvious choice.
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well he did acknowledge that the back problems may have been a factor while Johnson was in the stretch….
…and I have a bridge in Brooklyn that the M’s might want to buy… 🙂
There is virtually no up-side to bringing RJ here. A 43-year-old pitcher coming off a 5.00 ERA and back surgery? So, he maybe goes 7-5 here? 5-11? What’s the point? What do you do in 2008?
If you think this team is going to make it to the playoffs, then you probably don’t want Zito to be a Yankee. (Let’s Go Mets!). If you don’t think this team is going to make it to the playoffs, then why take up clubhouse space with Mr Dour? Give it, and the rotation spot, to some youngster. Which you’ll have to do, anyway, while RJ’s on the disabled list.
Cashman and Epstein are sure trying to go for major value for their guys this offseason aren’t they? First Epstein wants a ridiculous package for Ramirez, and doesn’t want to eat any of the contract, and now Cashman wants the moon for Johnson, even though he’s got a ton of question marks.
What is it with these two? Ramirez I can sort of understand since he’s still a HOF calibur player for a few years yet. Randy, we have no idea if he’s going to be much this year or beyond this year. No GM bit on Epstein’s crap, what makes Cashman think they’ll bite on his?
Bavasi think’s the M’s are a contender now? You may have determined his rationale for trading Snelling.
If King Felix goes supernova, and you get reasonable production from DH and CF (the last being nearly a given with Ichiro playing there), this is an 85-90 win club in a division where nobody resembles the late 30’s Yankees. If the right young players catch fire (Beltre, Lopez), it maybe is at the high end of that. The counter, of course that if things go wrong (Vidro is a black hole at DH, Sexson slides more, Ichiro and/or Guillen gets hurt and the OF is a mess, Felix still isn’t an ace, etc.), this is a 70-75 win team as well.
Bavasi’s reasoning w/r/t Vidro being better than Snelling and Ramirez being better than Soriano is probably wrong, but this isn’t a franchise bereft of any talent, either.
Before you put the stamp on that contract offer, Franklin pitched 24 innings with the Reds.
Wilson Freakin Valdez, because he was the only shortstop on the roster. Lopez was in Tacoma learning to play 2nd, if I remember right. If Reese was healthy he’d have started 140 games at SS in 2005.
It’s not a case of Ramirez being better than Soriano….it’s a matter of him being better than Pineiro……and that isn’t tough to do.
If Reese was healthy he’d have started 140 games at SS in 2005.
How many times has that happened in Reese’s career?
See, if anything, Bavasi SHOULD have been faulted for not having a backup plan for Reese having his annual injury…
If Reese was healthy he’d have started 140 games at SS in 2005.
How many times has that happened in Reese’s career?
One time too many. I am not disagreeing with you.
I sure hope people here aren’t serious about Ryan Franklin.
What about, say, Tony Armas? Too injury prone?
What happened to talk about John Thomsen and Tomo Ohka?
What’s the story with Mark Redman?
None of these guys is Barry Zito. But then none will demand Zito’s salary either. Any chance the M’s chase any of these?
I think this is obviously where people disagree with you on why Zito is worth pursuing. Personally, I agree with TangoTiger on this one that Zito is a 4-4.5 WAR/year over the next five years. If you don’t want to pick him up because you don’t think he is worth it, then I can understand your position. And if you don’t believe the FA price will appreciate 10%+ annually than I further understand your position.
I think you are a little more risk averse than people on the other side of the argument. But that doesn’t mean that people who think he is worth the risk are wrong.
From TangoTiger:
[uncited unlinked extremely long quote, see comment guidelines]
You can reasonably argue Zito as anything between a 6/81 to 6/113, depending if you think he is currently +4.0 or +4.5 WAR, and if you think his decline is 0.3 or 0.5 wins per year.
Zito’s PECOTA forecast going into this year thinks he’s going to be worth 4.2, 3.8, 3.4, and 2.9 wins over the next four years. That’s 18.9 wins. Even if you give him a little extra for making it through this season and hitting his median PECOTA ERA uninjured, say he’s worth 20 wins over the next six years. Giving him $80M for 20 wins is $4M/win. That’s an awfully high price to pay, even with inflated prices, and higher than what I would consider “reasonable.”
But Zito’s not going to sign for 6/$80M. He’s probably going to sign for closer to 6/$100M, which makes it $5M/win. Considering that it’s a $100M investment on a pitcher, the flakiest of all commodities, I’d say that’s safely higher than a reasonable price.
Then on top of that, you’ve got concerns about his peripherals that might indicate that 20 wins over the next six years is optimistic. No thank you.
Ack, it’s unclear in my initial comment that the 18.9 wins figure comes from giving Zito 2.5 wins in his 5th year and 2.1 wins in his 6th year, which seems consistent with the first four years of his PECOTA forecast.
Wait, aren’t we rebuilding? Oh yeah, that’s right. We’re just a couple of players away. A couple of starters, a couple of bats, and a couple of bullpen arms if we do trade Sherrill.
And we’re still waiting for that tsunami of free agent top starters who were going to be fighting each other in the Safeco parking lot for the privilege of pitching here. It’s high time that we correct that “home field advantage” that other teams have in our park. You know, the teams who have better starting pitching, which are most of them.
Not sure if this has been mentioned but what if…
Johnson is unwilling to relocate for only a one year deal?
How many years/dollar is wise to spend on a effective 43yr old?
How many years/dollars will a team pay?
If your pointing out faults I understand, but something tells me your not.
Sounds to me like apologies for the worst GM in the majors that made mistake after mistake for 4 years, but erased history in your mind by trading the mistakes away under the rug.
No inventing is necessary. And no Bavasi hasn’t “always” been willing to give kids time over veterans. Eleven at bats for Choo last year doesn’t equate to “veteran for kid” shuffle. Signing veteran Guillen over the kid Snelling (despite showing he can remain healthy after 105 combined games last year), doesn’t equate to Bavasi allowing the kids to play.
As pointed out earlier, Bavasi opted for often injured veteran Pokey Reese, waiver-wire Wilson Valdez, Mike freakin Morse, and Willie Broomstick, before going with Betancourt in July of ’05. Sounds to me like fans are very fortunate things fell into place by pure luck and the grace of the baseball gods.
The problem with the Ms dealing with the Yankees for RJ is just that. The Ms have to deal with the Yanks, what do we have that they want besides Sherrill? Do we think they will take Sherrill straight up. Maybe if they are trying to dump salary but I doubt it.
More importantly what about RJ? Does anyone really think he will okay a trade to the Ms? He said recently, when his brother passed, that he wanted to be closer to home. Wants to spend more time with his family. The Padres, Dodgers and Angels are all closer to Arizona and all will probably be contenders.
My sensing is that sometimes in our eagerness to complete a good deal for the Ms we tend to overlook the other side of the trade. What looks good to us may not look that good to the other team or the player who may have approval over the trade.
Having said that I would really like to see RJ in the Ms rotation in 2007. I don’t like RJ himself but I would really like to see him in an Ms uni.
Sounds to me like apologies for the worst GM in the majors that made mistake after mistake for 4 years, but erased history in your mind by trading the mistakes away under the rug.
I don’t think he’s the worst GM in the majors. He’s made mistakes, and I fully endorse the Draft Chris Antonetti movement, but not giving him his due is just as unfair as thinking every move he’s made is great.
As pointed out earlier, Bavasi opted for often injured veteran Pokey Reese, waiver-wire Wilson Valdez, Mike freakin Morse, and Willie Broomstick, before going with Betancourt in July of ‘05.
Betancourt was signed as a free agent by Bill “I hate kids” Bavasi in March 2005, and went to AA and then AAA, THEN the majors in the space of less than 4 months. You seriously thought he was going to get handed a job with NO minor league experience?
Yes, I know, we hate some of Bill’s trades. Let’s be fair, though, OK.
I’m all for bringing Randy Johnson back, as long as we also bring David Segui back so he can beat the crap out of him the first time he decides to phone it in during a game because somebody irritated him.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Randy Johnson come back he magically appeared on our roster, but it’s hard to think of a realistic trade that makes sense. I don’t think he pushes us into contention, and why would we want to trade some presumably younger player or players for one year of Johnson if he doesn’t push us into contention?
would love to see RJ back, but I am afraid Bavasi will give up waaaaaaaay more than needed to make it happen…
No kidding? It wasn’t satan afterall? Huh!?!
Sherrill is fairly easy to replace but the notion of him is generally overvalued. Right now his perceived worth is pretty high. If that can get translated into getting the Yankees to take Sexson’s contract while also conservatively netting 200 slightly better than league average innings with only a single year’s commitment attached… then hey… Bavasi is the new genius…
Sherrill/Sexson for Johnson…. kinda makes sense especially if the Yankees really haven’t turned over a new payroll leaf
Personally, I agree with TangoTiger on this one that Zito is a 4-4.5 WAR/year over the next five years.
That’s not what Tango said. Tango put him at 4 wins above replacement right now, then factored in a .3 win per year decline. So, “agreeing with Tango” means you think he’s at 4 wins in ’07, 3.7 wins in ’08, 3.4 wins in ’09, 3.1 wins in ’10, 2.8 wins in ’11, and 2.5 wins in ’12. Add it all up, and you get 19.5 wins over 6 years. That’s not 4 to 4.5 wins. And Tango’s about the most optimistic Zito projector out there.
Taking the best case projection, giving him a very modest decline, and assuming he doesn’t get hurt, he’s still not a 4 win pitcher for the next 5 years. There’s no way to twist this to make it a good idea for the M’s.
I think you are a little more risk averse than people on the other side of the argument. But that doesn’t mean that people who think he is worth the risk are wrong.
I’ve stated many times that I’m risk averse as a roster builder, and it’s no secret that I have a deep seeded love for short term contracts. But yes, in this case, people who believe that they know that Barry Zito is going to be a 4 win pitcher for the next 6 years are wrong, because they don’t understand what they don’t know.
I’ll gladly admit that I don’t know how Barry Zito is going to perform next year. I’ll also suggest that you don’t know how Barry Zito is going to do next year, and neither does the Mariners or any other major league team. Pitcher unpredictably is a daunting thing to overcome, and Zito’s unpredictable even by pitcher standards.
With that kind of lack of understanding, giving him a contract that requires him to pitch like an all-star for the next half decade is just foolish for a team with a payroll of less than $150 million.
MSB
I am alive and well. The earthquake was at the very south end of Taiwan and Taipei (where I live) is at the very north end of the island. I didn’t even know that there was an earthquake until my daughter woke me up in the middle of the night checking to see that everyone was OK. Our biggest problem now is communications. A couple of undersea cables broke and our phones and Internet services are suffering.
David
Check out the mlbtraderumors.com site (Todays lead rumor). Bavasi gets blasted again even before he tries to out bid SF for Zito’s services.
#124 Why would we want to give up George Sherrill for Johnson in a meaningless year? Granted, Johnson will have more value next year, but Sherrill is good, cheap, and 14 years younger, and might actually be around when the M’s are competitive again, if that ever happens.
116. Lopez was the backup plan at shortstop in 2005 but he was injured early in the season. That’s why Valdez came aboard at the last minute. Then when it became clear that Betancourt was riding a bullet to the big leagues and Boone was falling off a cliff, the Lopez transition to second got serious. Somewhere in there they justified giving some time at short to Morse, but that’s just a bad, hazy memory.
#127: THT is bashing him pretty hard today too.
#130: Thanks for the tip for THT. That is a good site! That Vidro trade will go down in infamy. MLB.com(Baseball news(source) says Zito to SF for 6/80. Zito passes on Rangers offer.
#126– glad to hear it!
#131– I believe the 6/$84M was the rumored Rangers’ offer. They say that the Giants are offering closer to the fabled 6/$100M of Boras’ dreams.
oh, and I loved the line in Stone’s piece today:
Well, call me a crazy crack-head and stomp on my Christmas Braunswager loaf, but I’m thinking that if the Ms had a decent rotation and things with the offense broke just right, those crazy Ms might be in a playoff race as late as say August….
Sherrill is to lefties like an alligator is to a red-neck’s deer jerkey but Sherrill is, afterall, fairly easy to get “annutta ones of….”
Johnson while not the boss hog anymore is still much more useful than tits on a boar but doesn’t require mortgaging the trailer to get a hold of….
So, terry, the PCP hasn’t worn off yet?
If we could somehow swing a Beltre/Sexson for an RJ/Arod, and then swing a Griffey for Vidro, then Finnigan will be out of a job! Actually, just getting rid of Finnigan would be worth it all.
“Well, call me a crazy crack-head and stomp on my Christmas Braunswager loaf, but I’m thinking that if the Ms had a decent rotation and things with the offense broke just right, those crazy Ms might be in a playoff race as late as say August….”
I still think it would behoove the M’s to stop thinking that at some point and just go ahead and rebuild. I’ve heard those arguments the last few years and not only did we not pull off a miracle, but we failed to get the kind of good young players we can improve with.
Sherrill is to lefties like an alligator is to a red-neck’s deer jerkey but Sherrill is, afterall, fairly easy to get “annutta ones of….
I don’t think Sherrills are that easy to get. He’s not a star or anything but he isn’t someone to casually toss away either, IMHO.