Nellie back!
DMZ · January 30, 2005 at 6:34 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Our long nightmare is over, as Jeff Nelson appears to be close to signing a minor league deal.
Now, Nelson hasn’t been effective for a while, but when he was in Safeco he was much more of a fly-ball pitcher than he’s been over the course of his career… and also enjoyed success here, especially beating up on right-handed hitters. If there was some difference in his approach or pitch selection and that wasn’t just a fluke, then maybe he goes back to it and a Winn-Reed-Ichiro! defense helps him out a lot. That seems unlikely though.
That said, he’s not getting the strikeouts like he used to. I’d be surprised if he was able to crack the bullpen, or return to effectiveness.
Comments
99 Responses to “Nellie back!”
I don’t think Atchison can be as good as Nelson can potentially be
Nellie hasn’t had a season ERA under 3.74 in 3 years, so expecting a 38 year old to suddenly rediscover his 2001 magic might be expecting a lot.
I’m pretty sure Atchison is capable of an ERA between 3 and 4. I also don’t see the Angels losing lots of games because they go with guys like Donnelly and Shields from THEIR system. So I’d be disinclined to give up on one of our guys for that reason… but Nellie’s an OK signing simply for depth reasons in spring training.
I have no idea whether Nellie will ever be effective anymore, but to say “he’s not getting the strikeouts like he used to” is a gross misuse of numbers. Here are his K rates per IP:
1999 1.141
2000 1.091
2001 1.347
2002 1.204
2003 1.229
2004 0.930
In 2004, he had knee and elbow surgery and only pitched 23 2/3 innings. He was on the DL from May 12 to July 26 and again from August 5 to September 1. I understand he had knee surgery the first time and bone chips cleaned out of his elbow the second time, but finished the season healthy. In the month of September he had 9 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings [yes I know he also walked 8 in those innings but 4 of those were in one game, his 2nd game back off the DL].
Of course his K rate was down last year. Is that because he’s old, or because he’s changed his approach, or because he was hurt last year? Is he healthy now? I have no idea. But to flatly make the statement that he isn’t getting strikeouts anymore is a misuse of statistics from one small sample.
Re 43 (todd):
Nelson has always had a high walk rate. Other than last year I don’t see it on an upward trend. Nor is there any upward trend in his ERA other than last year. It seems as though he struggled with control last year because when he pitched he was in pain.
If he’s healthy he’ll help the bullpen. If he’s not he’s probably done. I don’t see any harm in finding out in spring training.
But to flatly make the statement that he isn’t getting strikeouts anymore is a misuse of statistics from one small sample.
No, it isn’t. Look at it as % of batters, not K/9. He may be getting K/9, but it’s taking a lot more batters to get that rate.
Nelson isn’t what he used to be, but Boone, Moyer, Wilson and Speizio aren’t either, even though they are getting paid as if they were.
Nellie is an NRI on a minor league contract. He’s a minor commodity now and it has to grate him to rejoin players he was with that still have value. If he can earn his now meager salary I have nothing against the move.
As for what he said before leaving: he was right. Nellie did not invent the moniker “Stand Pat”, he only made public through his very public personna what had been said here and elsewhere many times.
I say sign Denny Stark. It’d be brilliant.
Also-I swear I am not David J Corcoran.
How about getting Brian Turang, Divin’ Alex Diaz, and Shane Monahan back? Then let’s get Calvin Jones and Erik Plantenberg back in relief.
Reunited and it feels so good…
Nor is there any upward trend in his ERA other than last year.
Uh, Nellie’s career ERA is 3.38. He hasn’t had a season ERA below that since 2001. I believe that would be an “upward trend”.
That being said, again, I’m not opposed to signing the guy on an NRI for spring training for depth purposes…but if you figure the pitching staff locks are these, barring injury:
Moyer
Piniero
Meche
Franklin
Madritsch
Guardado
Villone
Shiggy
you’re talking about 3 spots being fought over (4, maybe, for the first couple of turns through the rotation if they carry a 7th man in the bullpen because starters can’t go into the 8th inning) by these 8 guys:
Putz
Mateo
Sele (note that he’d bump one of Franklin or Madritsch to the ‘pen)
Nellie
Atchison
Baek
Sherrill
Thornton
Nellie, to me, doesn’t seem dramatically preferable to Mateo, Sherrill or Atchison…but that’s me.
Look at it as % of batters, not K/9. He may be getting K/9, but it’s taking a lot more batters to get that rate.
Really? Here are his K/BF:
1998 .1823
1999 .2518
2000 .2340
2001 .3223
2002 .2764
2003 .2833
2004 .2136
I see a 3-year plateau from 2001-2003 with a significant drop in his injury-plagued 2004 season. Of course 02 and 03 are slightly below his 2001 peak, but does that mean 2001 was an outlier or does it mean he was in decline in 02 and 03? I guess we’ll find out. I tend to think the stability in 02 and 03 means 01 was an outlier — his career year if you will.
I don’t see the trend in those numbers that you do. With all due respect.
I would think a key question is whether his velocity has dropped since 01. Or since 03, for that matter.
Thanks Smith!!!
Anyway, I would sign Arquimedez Pozo.
re: Nelson’s comments– for me the problem wasn’t that he shot his mouth off (as we all know, he does that. Frequently.) It was his assertion that he just knew they hadn’t even tried. He later admitted that once he had talked with Boone about Aaron, and once he got to NY he realized they had tried, but nothing got done; and that in fact the Yankees had been trying to get him a week before the deadline and before he spoke out. Being Jeff, though, he then stepped all over himself again by bitching out Edgar, Boone & Moyer for not speaking out too… (“I mean, you have Edgar, who’s supposed to be Mr. Seattle” quoth Jeff.)
I hate to be in the role of “Jeff Nelson defender” but here I am.
Uh, Nellie’s career ERA is 3.38. He hasn’t had a season ERA below that since 2001. I believe that would be an “upward trend”.
Nelson’s career ERA and ERA+:
1992 3.44 116
1993 4.35 101
1994 2.76 177
1995 2.17 224
1996 4.36 116
1997 2.86 155
1998 3.79 118
1999 4.15 108
2000 2.45 207
2001 2.76 153
2002 3.94 107
2003 3.74 118
2004 5.32 95
Of course those numbers have fluctuated wildly throughout his career — as you’d expect from a guy who throws very few innings per year. But his 118 in 2003 is not far off his career ERA+ of 135. Of his 13 major league seasons, 8 of them have had an ERA+ of 118 or worse.
So no, I will say again that I don’t see an upward trend in ERA prior to 2004.
Looks like Nelson is signed:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/news/sea_press_release.jsp?ymd=20050131&content_id=937352&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp
We could use a good situatioal southpaw to compliment Nellie. Say Tony Fossas?
Did the AARP buy a share of the Mariners while I wasn’t looking?
I would much rather see Thorton and Blackly struggling into stardom, than Nelson and Sele struggling into dentures!
Of his 13 major league seasons, 8 of them have had an ERA+ of 118 or worse.
Of course, that describes 3 of his last 3 seasons (ERA+ of 118 or worse). 2 of these seasons (2002 and 2004) also involved time on the DL. I think it’s kind of nutty to look at that recent performance and in addition, block out “oh yeah, the guy’s 38 years old”, and thus assume he’s going to be jumping into the Wayback Machine and performing like it’s 2000-2001 again. Sure, it could happen. And Sammy Sosa might win the AL HR crown with 66 HR’s, since he’s also hit that level of performance before with the Cubs in the NL. Do you think it’s LIKELY?
I think if you got reasonably lucky with Nellie, you’d probably get an ERA similar to 2002-2003, in the high 3’s (with him staying healthy for the entire yearand being a reasonably effective RH setup guy, with the occasional blown save). Which is fine, but it’s nothing special that you couldn’t get from Putz, Atchison, Mateo, Sherill, maybe even Thornton or Baek. Seeing as we have lots of question marks on the staff where guys like Villone or Franklin might be in the rotation, or we might run short of bullpen arms early, it’s not a bad idea to have a guy like Nellie onhand, but I suspect he’s past his prime based on recent performance and injury history.
This is all interesting, but likely irrelevant. Neither Nelson or Sele should make the Mariners out of spring training — there are younger guys with more upside who are ready to go and willing to do so for less money. One of the big tests of the Seattle front office will be whether Bavasi, Lincoln, Armstrong & Co. have the collective nutsack to release two local icons when they pack up from Peoria — or whether they cave and keep two old, broken players with no upside in either a mistaken belief they will remain healthy and/or effective all season long or a mistaken belief that the fans value their presence on the team (ala Wilson) more than they do a winning team.
I fear the latter, if only because I heard countless radio and TV interviews all weekend about Nelson’s “nasty slider” and Sele’s “innings-eater” credibility. Dan Wilson was quoted on KOMO Radio as saying of Sele: “He knows how to win, and he showed it last year. He can help this ballclub tremendously.” Bavasi touted his “quiet veteran leadership by example” in another such interview.
Nelson, at best, would be a ROOGY — a right-handed-one-out-guy — that no team can afford. He’s 38, for flippin’ sake. Sele is broken, with no more effective pitches for strikes, who survives only on a freakish “ability” to be credited for wins.
Let’s thank them both for nice careers, remember their past accomplishments fondly, and get on with our lives.
For what it’s worth, the original deal was Tino, Nellie, and Mecir for Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis. Would almost be reconstructible, if somebody could track down Russ wherever he is….
First Sele, now Nelson. Geez. Rumor has it that Bavasi is close to signing Diego Segui and Glenn Abbott and inviting them to spring training too.
Hey, at least maybe we’ll get to see Jeff Nelson relieve for King Felix when we go see him pitch in Tacoma. That’d be kind of fun.
isn’t fassero available? seems like he always ends up somewhere before the season starts.
seriously though, Sele or Nellie will have to have awesome springs (and others, awful springs) to make this team. The youngsters will really have to falter, in order for those guys to land a spot. Unless the front office has learned nothing from last year’s “veteran friendly” debacle.
Sele is broken, with no more effective pitches for strikes, who survives only on a freakish “ability†to be credited for wins.
Well…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/limajo01.shtml
You think a guy with 26 BB’s/32 K’s in 2003 as a part time starter with KC was a good bet to go 13-5 with a league average ERA in 2004?
Now, I don’t think you should go put mortgage money down for Sele doing as well in 2005 as Lima did in 2004 (because let’s face it, he could ALSO be 2005’s Giovanni Carrara), and I don’t have a lot of issue dumping him if he doesn’t pitch decently in spring training…but is it worth a NRI flyer, considering that a number of our kids (Johnson, Piniero, Meche, Blackley, Soriano) and some of our veterans (Moyer, Guardado) have so many question marks around them? I think so.
Basically. NRIs to guys like Nellie and Sele are another way of trying to dip into the “free talent” pool. As long as you don’t overestimate the value of “free talent” (which I think the M’s unfortunately did in Shiggy and Villone’s cases) by not realizing how fungible it is, it doesn’t hurt.
Think we can get Mike Moore or Bill ‘Cuffs’ Caudill to make their comebacks?
#65–Fassero is part of the Giants’ attempt to have their players collectively match Felipe Alou’s age …
#67 — I’d agree with you if Sele or Nelson made the team with strong performances and made no more money than the players with whom they’re battling for jobs. But that’s just not the case. Any money paid to them above the league minumum for performances no better than Atchison or Mateo or whoever isn’t an effective use of back-of-the-budget resources. All they’d be doing is holding back players with more upside who are just as ready to play i the majors.
Also, Lima was younger and not coming back from rotator-cuff surgery. Big difference.
Like I’ve said on other threads, this will be an interesting test of Bill Bavasi’s priorities. If Atchison, for instance, pitches 19 1/3 spring-training innings with 6 walks, 13 strikouts and a 3.49 ERA, and Nelson pitches 14 innings with 7 walks, 10 Ks and a 4.58 ERA, does Bavasi have the courage to waive Nelson on getaway weekend? Or will he alibi for the older pitcher, saying “He just needs more time to get stretched out, and we have every confidence he’ll be a vital contributing member of a winning ballclub?”
If Sele pitches 26 2/3 spring innings with 35 hits, 9 walks, 11 Ks and a 5.68 EPA (and gets credited with a 3-0 record), would he get the fifth-starter nod over an 0-3 Franklin if Ryan pitched 30 innings with 31 hits, 8 walks, 14 Ks and a 4.55 ERA?
Does Soriano figure to be out all season?
And yes, I know it’s Manzanillo. Cut me some slack.
Best case scenario, Soriano comes back at the end of July. So potentially, with Soriano and Felix (coming up from T-town) coming to the team in late July, this could be the best trading deadline ever for the M’s without even having to worry about the FO freezing up like a deer in headlights. Imagine the possibilities if they can also miraculously pull off a trade at the same time… Excuse me, I need a moment alone. I know this is a supremely optimistic viewpoint, but isn’t that what the hot-stove season is all about.
Felix and Soriano both coming up to start August would really annoy the other teams in the AL West – Seattle could be a fine spoiler.
It’s our turn to have a big August win streak. Even if it just lifts us above .500, running off 12-16 straight wins against division rivals would make a nice statement heading into 2006.
Any money paid to them above the league minumum for performances no better than Atchison or Mateo or whoever isn’t an effective use of back-of-the-budget resources. All they’d be doing is holding back players with more upside who are just as ready to play i the majors.
I don’t think we really disagree that much- but the thing is, with an unsettled rotation/bullpen with a number of injury risks, having lots of fodder to fill out the back of the rotation or bullpen isn’t a bad thing. I also don’t think Atchison/Mateo/Merrill/Baek/Franklin have LOTS of upside. They’re just cheap fodder as opposed to the more expensive, injury-prone fodder that Nelson or Sele represent- but as long as the cost isn’t outlandish, I’m not opposed to it.
Mostly, what I’d want a do-over on is Sexson as opposed to, say, Matt Clement + an inexpensive lefty option for DH (assuming Bucky IS going to need some downtime early in the season, which I’m not sure about- if the dude is playing on a bunch of spaghetti in his knew, he’s REALLY going to want to play now), like Ben Grieve.
I think in baseball, more than any other sport due to the length of the season, we have more of an emotional connection to the players. And on that level I am saddened by the Nelson signing. In interviews, personal appearances and behavior (assault charges etc.) he rubs me the wrong way. Marine haircuts on guys not in the corps just longs wrong, like hes trying to bolster his masculinity. I think he wont get past Tacoma and hopefully he drifts away or hangs up the cleats.
It seems to me that the Nelson spring training appearance, like the Wilson re-sign and the Sele appearance, are the result of Bavasi thinking this:
“Note to self: During the period after the change of administration, comfort the team’s emotionally-driven and mostly ignorant fan base by inviting (or retaining) familiar and well-liked players to hang out with the team. Take care to do this in cases that are nearly irrelevant to the team’s performance, like backup catcher or spring training invitees. Use the resulting good will and political capital to make relevant moves that improve the team.”
Nelson will not make the team. This is a pat on the head for the hundreds of thousands of fans who remember their heroes fondly yet can’t guess their ages to within five years, even before they’ve had four pints.
Jim
Seriously, I know y’all are gettin’ off on Nelson signing, but the main thing is that the Mariners need to do is keep this trend goin’ by bringin’ back both Jim Mecir and Darren Bragg…
Like I said earlier, I’d rather see Mecir and Jeff Nelson instead of Julio Mateo and J.J. Putz. (Projected Bullpen: LS George Sherrill or Matt Thornton, LR Aaron Sele, LR Ron Villone, MR Shigetoshi Hasegawa, MR Jim Mecir, SM Jeff Nelson, CP Eddie Guardado.) [Trade/DFA: Scott Atchison, J.J. Putz, and George Sherrill or Matt Thornton.]
{P.S.: Place Rafael Soriano on the 60-Day Disabled List come the start of the season, and give his spot on the 40-Man & 25-Man roster to Darren Bragg.}
By the way: The only thing that Chairman John Ellis, CEO Howard Lincoln, CFO Kevin Mather, and COO Chuck Armstrong care ’bout is
winningSALES & MARKETING!!!Ugh! I jus’ meant to strike “winning”…oh well.
USS Mariner reports that the Mariners are closed to a deal that would sign Jeff Nelson to a minor league contract. Jeff Nelson? Minor League?
This season is looking more and more interesting with each new day.
c’mon guys…be fair. it’s time to shoot a couple of NRI’s to you favorite Seattle Pilots. Bouton’s ready for a comeback…Mike Marshall…even Ray Oyler! 69 is where it’s at…1969, that is.
😀
I’ll bet Jim Acker, Russ Swan, Clay Parker, Kerry Woodson, Juan Agosto, Rich DeLucia, Tim Leary, Eric Gunderson, and “The Wrong” Kevin Brown, just a few of Nellie’s rookie bullpen-mates, are all still available. Assuming they’re still alive….
Note to Ray Oyler fan:
While you’re bringing back Detroit Tiger retreads, don’t forget about Willie Horton!
Hear that sound?
[Scrrrrrrrrrp]
[Scrrrrrrrrrp]
Yup, we’ve reached the bottom of the barrel.
Can’t wait to watch Nellie again.
There’s a slider. Ah, he’s mixing in another slider. Wait, here comes a slider. And there’s his out pitch . . . way outta here, fences here I come!
Honestly, it’s remarkable Nelson had the success he once had without a changeup of some sort. If he mastered one, perhaps he could extend his career a few years.
I remember watching Nellie’s slider in ’95. I was amazed anyone could ever hit it. He may be 38 and he may have sucked last year, but relievers’ careers are all over the place. If we get one of those uncanny reliver break out seasons from him…one of the young guys can wait, or Nellie could be some delicious trade bait. We’ll see.
(It’s more likely we’ll see Nellie throwing batting practice for little leaguers next season.)
How about Henry Cotto. And maybe Bill Swift at the bottom of the rotation
Two-time Mariner reliever Jeff Nelson is returning for a third stint with the team. Nelson’s swooping slider is one of the best in baseball, and he’s used it in 743 major league games–only 44 others have pitched in more. After such a long career (N…
Wow. All kinds of doom and gloom about every move the Mariners make. You dont have to like Sele, Nelson, Gill, and the like. They may not have much left in the tank. And yes there is plenty of cheap young tallent bottle necking. BUT shouldnt the young guys have to earn their jobs? Shouldnt there be hearty competition for these sposts? I’m all for bringing in these older guys. Make the rookies work. If they earn it, its theirs. I they suck, well then you have an experienced, inexpensive major leage player to buy them some development time.
#88 — Sure, I agree with you, if that is what in fact is happening. But I don’t think Bavasi has earned the right to have us trust him enough to make the distinction between a “veteran leader” managing to miss a few bats in the twilight of a career as opposed to a hungry kid making the most of his chance to compete at the same level. I’ve heard the words “veteran leadership” come out of Bavasi’s mouth about 96 times too often since he came on board.
I would love to see Greg Pirkl and Mike Blowers come back to glory. Bucky reminds me of Pirkl……nobody reminds me of Blowers.
Ok, using the whole ‘six degrees of separation’ thing, I can and will make this relevant to this thread…
Nellie used to play for the Yanks, and the M’s, and the Yanks, and the M’s, and the Yanks, and the M’s… That guy A-Rod played for both of those teams too – so – hah! This is on topic! 😉
Anyway…
Did anyone else read that article over at ESPN about how George called A-Rod in for a private meeting? Yeah, it’s great… It’s basically an interview with A-Rod where Alex is like “Mr. Steinbrenner said I need to stop being so dosh garn nice and just start acting like the superstar overpaid player that I am…” Yeah, it just comes across as really weird.
Other highlights from the article include A-Rod talking about how George doesn’t want to see him and Jeter being ‘friendly’ with each other and that he needs to lead by “the pure talent that I was have”.
I thought it was weird when A-Rod came out with those articles a few weeks ago about how “I’m the one who was brought in to win this thing for us and since we didn’t it’s all my fault… I completely shoulder this blame… It’s something that I’m used to by now and I want it” or something like that…
While that’s respectable and all, what’s wrong with him!? Does he realize how arrogant that sounds? It’s almost like he saw Griffey dodging all the responsibility in Seattle and made it his life mission or something to be the opposite of that. Well, it’s either that or further proof that A-Rod just doesn’t have a clue that ONE GUY can’t make a team win – even if that guy is A-Rod.
Seriously, the more I think about it the more it irks me… It’s like he’s trying to be a P.C. Reggie Jackson; and, if I’m reading Georgie’s comments right, it seems like George wants him to drop the P.C. part – although I don’t see that happening… It’s funny, to ‘prove’ that he wasn’t going to be ‘Mr. nice guy’ anymore, A-Rod declined to play at Jeter’s annual golf tourney… Oh my!!! How rebellious! 😉
For my last two cents on this, does it seem to anyone else like George is trying to create that whole Munson/Jackson tension thing all over again?… Just a thought…
greenlaw, there are plenty of yankee threads around the blogosphere. Do you really want an M’s fan’s view of that contrived story?
After the first round of the playoffs last year Reggie said that Arod has the fortitude, will power, strength of character (whatever you want to call it) to take his game to a higher level. Then, Arod blew it in the last four games against Boston, as if the he thought he had been annunciated as the Second Coming of Mr. October by the Word Of Reggie.
Dave, DMZ, and the rest:
I was wondering if one or more of you would take the time to sift through the Mariners pitching heading into spring training, and give us some sort of prediction on who you think will be on the opening day roster, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. As far as I can tell, there are roughly 18 candidates for the 11-ish spots available – six or eight candidates for the rotation; 11 to 13 for the bullpen. I understand some of this might depend on the health of certain players, but I’d love to see what you guys think.
Starters: Pineiro, Moyer, Meche, Madritsch, Franklin, Villone, Sele, King Felix
Bullpen: Guardado, Nelson, (Villone), Sherrill, Putz, Hasegawa, (Franklin), Mateo, Thornton, Atchison, Kida, Reichert, Baek, Nageotte…
Maybe you could give us two lists of 11: one of who you think will suit up opening night, and one of who you wish would be the 11 the end up taking into the season.
Thought most of us would be interested in seeing that if you have time. Thanks!