Rumoring and spending
Gammons, most prominently, is pushing the line that Richie Sexson is all but a done deal. He also mentioned that the Montreal Expos (Washington Unnamed Team?) may be shopping Vidro and Nick Johnson, to which I would say: man, I’d love to have Nick Johnson. Oh, sure, there’s the health issue, but what crazy potential, and he’d be a better defensive 1B than Ibanez or Bucky. Or you could DH him if you were really worried about health…
Anyway, to a larger point, beyond the long-term deals to younger, star free agents like Beltre/Beltran, should the Mariners spend on short-term, expensive fixes? What if they bring in Delgado and Glaus on two, three-year deals that are really rich?
I say go for it. As along as they don’t block the development path of legitimate, ready prospects, there’s no reason not to spend a ton of money. I like seeing the team win, and if the Mariners don’t spend that money they just pocket it (see: previous years) so why not spend it on random passer-by that make waiting for the team to rebuild more bearable?
And sometimes, if you’re smart about it, you can luck into the playoffs with a team like that.
Comments
43 Responses to “Rumoring and spending”
Well, a lineup of:
1. Ichiro
2. Reed
3. Delgado
4. Glaus
5. Boone
6. Winn
7. Jacobsen
8. Olivo
9. Lopez?
Isn’t half bad.
I agree, so long as it isn’t at the expense of signing Beltran or Beltre. If there were any way on earth we could land Vidro and/or Johnson, though . . . I suppose Vidro would cost too much, but Johnson–with the career he’s had so far, I’d bet we could afford him without much trouble, and I agree that the upside’s still there.
DMZ,
I agree totally with your point about spending the money. If nothing else, it would help the team bring in fans and keep the payroll above $90 million. Plus, it is not like we are talking about Moises Alou or Vinny Castilla. Delgado and Glaus could very well play at a high level for a while. Glaus is only 28, and could be a guy who becomes a bargain if he can stay healthy for a year. I would hope that the M’s would sign him for 3 years at least, with some team options. Same thing with Delgado or Sexson.
However, I hope that the M’s throw some cash at Beltre, and perhaps even Beltran also if he can be had for less than 16 million/year. JD Drew is another guy who could be a great pickup.
Regarding your comment on Nick Johnson, I am not too impressed with what little I have seen of him. He gets on base, which is good, but he has some real serious problems keeping healthy, which is a bad sign for a guy that is that young. His plate discipline is great, but you would like a little more power from a first baseman. If he was an elite defender, it might be a bit different. He would be a decent pickup if the M’s could get him without giving up any major parts. However, I would think that the new DC club would want to hang on to some decent players. I am actually surprised that they are mentioning Vidro, who is a really good player. Both Johnson and Vidro’s values are very low right now, so it is not likely that the Nationals(?) would get decent return for them if they tried to trade them now. If the M’s could ditch Boone, Vidro would be an awesome pickup. However, that is pretty unlikely.
I keep hearing Shawn Chacon’s name coming up a lot in rumors. He could be a decent pickup. Getting away from Colorado would probably help him out. He was pretty good in 2003, and his value is low right now after a horrible season. Since the Rockies are looking for relievers, and we have several young cheap relievers we could part with, perhaps something could be worked out.
i like that youre lineup has winn hitting sixth, in front of the guy that paced for 45 homers this year.
Are we sure that with Johnson what you see isn’t what you get? The Yankees have developed a reputation for hyping prospects who don’t turn out…for other teams who get suckered (a la Homer Bush, Ricky Ledee, Russ Davis [cough!], etc.–they tried it with Erick Almonte, but nobody bit).
Johnson got a lot of press when he was in their system, but his numbers show a singles hitter with little power and no speed – he has about as many doubles as home runs, and three times as many singles as 2B & HR combined. Over a full season he doesn’t project much higher than 19-25 HR tops. He’d be a very good #2 hitter, and fantastic protection for Ichiro, but don’t you maybe want more from a first baseman?
What exactly makes you think ownership is going to spend money this year, rather than just continuing to pocket it?
So Derek,
I’ve been an advocate for depth of acqusitions in this offseason’s rebuild past the Beltre-Beltran-Clement tier, and accordingly I’m all with you on at least one other major acquisition for a power bat. Dave’s take on Bavasi’s objectives didn’t include this, but I think it should be done; certainly it _could_ be done, with 1b the obvious position if the Ms FO has the mind and spine to do so. So you can count me as a ‘yes vote’ on this concept.
In principle Delgado would bring a power lefthanded bat, and would be the hands down best choice—except he’s got physical problems, is a wretched defender, and has, in my view, a significant further downside I’ve spoken to previously. Think Kevin Mitchell with a pleasanter personality. I hope I don’t get to watch this play itself out, no.
I’ve been a proponent of making an offer to Glaus before, and I still see him as very, very much a player to go after, massive power even though he’s a righty. He could be gotten on a three-year for fair $$ given his recent injury history, and if the Ms wanted to be top bidder they certainly could be, plus he has a connection to Bavasi. The problem is, where do you play him? The Ms are clear that they want to be in it on Beltre to the end, and frankly that’s the most rational approach. Glaus has been clear he wants to be signed as a 3b-men: the Ms can’t logically negotiate with both. If the Ms don’t get Beltre, Glaus is by far the best option–although he may not be able to play the position physically that’s the rub, and he will probably not still be on the market by the time Beltre’s signing plays itself out. I see Glaus at 1b myself, and would be more than happy to see him signed to DH, except Bucky is there already, cheap, and will probably hit quite well. To me, Glaus should simply be signed, period, and all this finessed at the end of the day, but I think this is one that the Mariners FO simply will not bring off, so I’m not counting on it.
Among free agents after the two you mention, and Drew who seems very likely not to be leaving the state of Georgia, I don’t see anyone really worth the price of the contract. Sexson has a major, major injury, and I think his ability to play AT ALL is very seriously in jeopardy: signing this man is pure insanity, and I strongly suspect whoever does so is going to be extremely unhappy a year from now. I also have never been all that sold on Sexson as a hitter, massive power or not. Hargrove seems to like him a bunch, the fulcrum of Gammons’ rumor no doubt, but please no.
. . . Which leaves a _trade_ for the ‘third bat,’ something I have also been advocating for months. If Nick Johnson is available, I think he would be an excellent player to focus on. Yes, he may be too fragile to cut it; yes, he isn’t a pure power guy, and may never be a primary RBI hitter. He is merely adequate at best defensively (although a great deal better than Delgado). Johnson is, however: a) lefthanded, b) superb at reading the strike zone and getting on base, c) youngish yet, d) cheap to pay, and e) will be comparatively cheap to acquire given his injury history. It sounds like Bowden simply wants to dump his arbitration eligibility from an impoverished franchise, too. In the worst case, Johnson could be given a year at 1b, and if he implodes again even non-tendered while the Ms make a major attempt to fill the postion next year. Nick Johnson has big upside, and is just the kind of acquisition that a shrewd GM would be making _right now_. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Beane in Oakland has the deal done before Bill Bavasi even dials DC to inquire. But I would applaud the acquisition of Johnson, and much, much more so than a crazy flyer on Sexson or the suspect package which is Delgado.
Rebecca- the fact that they have money, and they realize their profits will dwindle with another crappy season.
A Cubs fan here that on occasions read this fine blog and that has a question…
Would you Mariners fans be interested in sending Eddie Guardado to the Cubs while receiving Kaz Matsui from the Mets and a Grade B prospect from the Cubs in a three-way deal that would also involve Sosa, Farnsworth and another Cubs prospect going to the Mets, and Floyd and Stanton heading to the Cubs?
Matsui’s contract is $7m in 2005 and $8m in 2006. Guardado’s is $4.5m in 2005 with a $7m team option vs a $4.5m player option in 2006, though if I’m not mistaken, Guardado’s salary increases by $1m in both years if he’s used as the closer. If that is the case, the Mariners add $1.5m in 2005 and either nothing or $2.5m in 2006 according to which of the options is picked up.
The thinking behind this proposition is that the Mariners have a hole at shortstop (Lopez has a bright future, but is he ready at the young age of 20? If so, Matsui could move to second if you could trade Boone), that Matsui, like his namesake, struggled in his first year against Major League pitching, but is a legitimate star that put up huge numbers in Japan and ought to break out soon, that his signing would give the Mariners an even stronger fanbase and market in the land of the rising sun, that Guardado is now 34 and is coming off a serious shoulder injury, and that you compete for the signature of Troy Percival (who as a flyball pitcher would love Safeco Field and could probably stave off his age-induced decline) or another free agent closer that can bridge the gap to Rafael Soriano closing.
Thoughts? From the Mariner perspective, would you make that deal? Perhaps more importantly, would Bill Bavasi make that deal?
In my mind, done deal, Eddie showed us really not much last year.
Nick Johnson….wow. That would have my 10000% backing. He will be healthy, and he has good power, good defense, good OBP, he could be the next Carlos Delgado. Go for it.
Mr. Hill:
Yes, I would do that. Guardado for a Grade B prospect and Kaz Mat would be a decent deal. Closers are overrated, especially when they only come out with a 3-run lead in the ninth. J.J. Putz would be a serviceable closer, and we could sign a top-notch setup guy (Mota).
We could put Lopez at 3rd.
A combination of Delgado and Johnson sandwiching Boone might be a bit of a career extender for Boone, too much to hope for probably. Glaus and Johnson would be good too. The Belt brothers, Tre and Tran won’t be coming anywhere near Safeco.
Adam, Rebecca has the weight of history on her side.
#9 — I’d make the deal, Bill Bavasi would make that deal, but I doubt any major league GM’s would take Guaradado in a trade given that it’s at least a strong possibility that he’ll be out with an injury this year (he was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff, ya know). Despite all the talk about how he’ll be fine, it’s too easy for a deal for Guardado to blow up in a GM’s face.
Since the M’s like Guardado and his performance in ’04 and they weren’t willing to part with him at the trade deadline, it’s a 100% certainty that they declined the team option due to the injury (knowing he’d excercise the lower $ player option). Obviously there’s risk there and other teams will see it tooo…
Why not sign Radke, Clement, and Sexson? Then trade Olivo for Posada and his salary. Or make an offer for Varitek. Either of them would give this team a much needed boost in energy and leadership. I am not sold on Olivo being the “future”.
The thing is there’s no indication that they won’t have a pretty firm cap on the budget (instead of spending a ton of money) that wouldn’t make someone like Delgado and someone like Beltran an “or” instead of an “and”.
That being said, getting Glaus and Beltran instead of Beltre and Beltran wouldn’t slay me. My big objection to Delgado is he’s the one person the farthest away from 30 we’re apparently targeting.
Really, I think everyone in baseball knows that Guardado isn’t pitching this year, except, apparently, Guardado; the M’s are just crossing their fingers and hoping somehow they get lucky. If that were to happen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move him, but it’s a very long shot.
If Eddie’s not pitching in 2005, why was he healthy enough to go in his stint in Peoria and said he was feeling fine? Presumably if he had been having arm pain then, he could have gone under the knife and not risked losing time in 2006.
#9 – yes I would be very excited if that trade was made, I think the M’s should trade Guardado to someone else if that deal falls through because he is overrated. His fastball is around 90 mph, and he gives up a lot of HRs, but I think he is valuable in the minds of many GM’s aroung the league. I would think that Yankees would be interested given their struggles with the bullpen in the playoffs, and being especially deficient of lefthanders. As for what we would get in return I think prospects would be the best way to go. I like Mitch Jones(39 HR in 496 ABs in AA, he did strikeout 152 times though), and Craig Wilson((not the one on Pittsburgh) 56 BB in 268 ABs, but little power) would make a good trade for us, but I really don’t know anything about those guys beyond one year of AA stats.
Anyhow as for Nick Johnson I think he would be a great pickup I think that he has some latent power, and you have to love a guy that walks that much. I totally agree that with whoever said he’ll probably end up in Oakland, he seems like a guy Beane would like.
In a much earlier post I advocated that the Mariners sign Delgado, O. Cabrera, and Jacque Jones, assuming he is not offered arbitration by the Twins, which seems likely. I think it is now unlikely that Cabrera will leave Boston and with the dollars MLB will give the Orioles for the Expo move to DC I expect Angelos to overpay for Carlos. I would be content to bring Nick Johnson to the Mariners rather than Delgado, though Johnson obviously does not have the power that Carlos has. He is a better first baseman though and with Boone getting older the Mariners will need a first baseman with some range. I think Johnson has enough power to hit some homeruns into the rightfield stands at Safeco at least in July and August. Shortstop to me is the Mariners biggest need right now and also the most difficult position for them to fill given the other teams who are also looking for shortstops. Centerfield is also a position in need of an upgrade, especially if Ibanez stays in left. Jeremy Reed has more range than Winn, but he has about the same arm as Randy. If the Mariners don’t sign a guy like Jacque Jones, I would play Reed in center and if possible trade Winn for a shortstop with decent range and a better bat than Ramon Santiago.
Guardado showed you not much last year? That’s a bit extreme. His ERA was in the 1’s for the first couple of months, then he struggled a bit (likely due to an injury), and finished with an ERA under 3.
What more could expect from a hurt closer. A done deal for Kaz Matsui? You’ve got to be kidding.
ec, haven’t you heard that song before? I certainly have, more than a few times.
*cough*RyanAndersonChrisSnellingRafaelSoriano*cough*
Yeah, but if you recall, he had knee surgery and THEN came back to Peoria. It’s not that outlandish to think he was stressing his rotator cuff because his knee was screwed up, and fixing that + rest will help.
Besides, since the Mariners are on the dime for him to the tune of 13 million no matter what, why not MAKE him take the surgery? Unless you think Guardado’s not being honest, there’s really no reason for the Mariners to not have him have surgery. At least they’d know in the offseason they need to make a move.
MAKE him have surgery? Umm, because legally they can’t?
So you’re saying he’s lying about his health? Because that’s what “make” refers to- they have no reason not to make him get his rotator cuff repaired unless Guardado says “I’m fine”, and a medical examination agrees.
So you’re saying he’s lying about his health? Because that’s what “make” refers to- they have no reason not to make him get his rotator cuff repaired unless Guardado says “I’m fine”, and a medical examination agrees. Because, look, it’s going to be easier to add someone to your bullpen in November than it is in March, April or May…
Does anyone have a line on Glaus’s defense? I checked out his zone ratings and was surprised how bad his numbers were this year and last. He was down around .695 while average third sackers were around .750. Is this a fair measure of Glaus’s fielding? If so, is he only really a DH?
I’m saying that Dr. Lewis Yocum said he doesn’t need surgery, and there is no power on earth that can compel him to do so. You have a problem with this concept?
Jon Hill,
I have thought about the Guardado trade to the Cubs and the Mets. The only issue would be that Guardado has a no-trade clause, and would have to OK any deal. But playing for the Cubs would be a pretty decent alternative to rebuilding with the M´s. I have always thought that Matsui is a guy who is likely to have a great season next year. There is no way that he is as bad as he played last year. He would be a decent risk. From the M´s perspective, there is no way they would send money to the Cubs for Guardado´s contract when they are taking on Matsui´s money. The would be adding more salary than what they would be subtracting as is. If a prospect is involved, I think that that Dopirak kid who plays 1B would be a nice pickup.
The problem is the Mets. I don´t see the Mets getting all that excited about trading Matsui, Stanton, and Floyd for Sosa, Farnsworth, and a prospect. Perhaps they would. But they would be adding one of the worst contracts in baseball in Sosa. They do want to get rid of Floyd, but he comes off the books after 2005 and gets paid over 10 million less than Sosa. Stanton may be signed for two more years, but he was a better reliever than Farnsworth last year. It just doesn´t make much sense for the Met´s unless they really wanted to ditch Matsui. I am not sure that this is the case.
A New York sports writer suggested a trade of Boone, Guardado, and Spiezio for Matsui and Floyd. That is an interesting idea. The money works. The M´s could either put Floyd at DH or try to get him to play 1B (which might actually work).
Who knows. I just think that the Met´s would be nuts to take Sosa. He has proven that he cares only for himself and inflating his stats. I can understand why Jon Hill wants him gone. The Met´s have made some dumb trades in the past, but I don´t see them taking Sosa unless they can ditch Piazza or move some other salaries. Matsui is one of their overpriced players who can be reasonably expected to rebound next year.
Ancient Mariner,
Why would Guardado not want surgery if he is not healthy? Just to be mean? If he is hurt, it is in everyones best interest to get him surgery and get him in rehab as soon as possible. Are you saying he is afraid of surgery? If his injury gets worse, it could be career threatening. The fact that he rushed into his knee surgery, had the best surgeon around say he doesn´t need it, and has pitched lately, suggest to me that there is nothing underhanded going on. He could bounce back with no ill effects with rest. I don´t see any reason to believe that the M´s and Guardado are not on the same page on this. Who knows if the diagnosis was correct. But you would think that, if he was having some trouble in his recent throwing sessions, they would get him under the knife ASAP to get him on the road to recovery. It would be in everyones best interest.
Here is some info on rotator cuff injuries:
http://www.scoi.com/cuffdise.htm
It sounds like Eddie Gurdado might have a minor impingement or rotator cuff tendinitis, possibly aggravated by his knee problem, rather than a complete tear, as seemed to be indicated in the diagnosis by Dr. Pedegana, based on an MRI:
http://www.mopsquad.com/artman/publish/article_535.htm
http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/04/10/13/spo_mariners001.cfm
Of course, even after treatment of rest, cortisone injections and physical therapy, overuse can result in reinjury. So “Every Day Eddie” might warrant more rest between appearances.
Personally, I doubt that Guardado will bring much on the market at this point, given the uncertainty.
Jerry, I don’t think you quite understand surgery vs. no surgery. Surgery entails a long and necessary rehab. It’s possible that with no surgery the shoulder will get better by itself. Surgery is to be avoided whenever possible.
Thanks for the responses. I suppose a lot depends on just how healthy Guardado really is. It does sound though that some of you wouldn’t even insist on the prospect!
Jerry:
“The problem is the Mets. I don´t see the Mets getting all that excited about trading Matsui, Stanton, and Floyd for Sosa, Farnsworth, and a prospect. Perhaps they would. But they would be adding one of the worst contracts in baseball in Sosa. They do want to get rid of Floyd, but he comes off the books after 2005 and gets paid over 10 million less than Sosa. Stanton may be signed for two more years, but he was a better reliever than Farnsworth last year. It just doesn´t make much sense for the Met´s unless they really wanted to ditch Matsui. I am not sure that this is the case.”
I floated the idea at on couple of Mets blogs too, and the response was generally quite negative. While they wanted rid of Floyd (whose contract actually runs through 2006 at $6.5m per) and Stanton (who has one year at $4m left on his deal and whose performance in 2004, they claimed, was a lot worse than his ERA suggested), and they were interested in Farnsworth (it’s the stuff really, and the hope that Peterson might be the person to turn him around), they were sceptical when it came to Sosa and his age-induced decline. That said, it would seem that Minaya is far more enthused by him, and if the markets for Floyd and Stanton aren’t big, the proposed trade actually works out well for them financially ($1.3m added in 2005, $3.5m in 2006, $4.5m in 2007), nothing that Sosa wouldn’t re-generate, and Matsui is expendable if Victor Diaz pans out as their second baseman. I think if we sent them that prospect we’d have sent you, Minaya would do the deal, though most Mets fans wouldn’t.
DMZ: “Gammons, most prominently, is pushing the line that Richie Sexson is all but a done deal.”
Is everyone just blowing this one off saying Gammons has it all wrong?
but he has some real serious problems keeping healthy, which is a bad sign for a guy that is that young
Carlos Guillen, Jerry?
At 26 years old, NJ would be a great addition.
Going back to Post #1…
That lineup looks fairly servicable if everything works out (i.e., no injuries). But what is the likelihood of that?
Where are the injury risks in the lineup?
UH… hitters #3-5 and #7. Jacobsen and Glaus have documented histories of serious injuries. Delgado’s health is looking questionable and he is getting old. Boone is old.
Further, where is the future in this lineup? Are Ichiro, Reed, Winn, Lopez, and Olivo really the building blocks we want for the New Mariners? Which of those is the guy that is going to make pitchers sweat?
I would much prefer the M’s stick to Plan A: sign a superstar YOUNG player that has a high probability of being an all star for several years to come, and use our players and acquisitions to build around that person.
FWIW, Nick Johnson’s health history:
2000 missed all season with right-wrist injury that was never really completely diagnosed
2001 chicken pox in spring, May a muscle problem in left hand (originally thought to be a bone bruise)
2002 July/Aug there was a bone bruise on left wrist that was still a problem going into in Spring 2003
2003 in Spring sprained left wrist, and also thumb; in May got a stress fracture in right hand that lasted all year off & on
2004 began season on DL with lower back strain; in August had right knee strain, & when back fractured cheekbone, missed rest of season
Johnson’s fractured cheekbone was a fluke, a ball came up and got him in the face. He does seem to be a fragile guy though. Also, having watched him the Yankees, I don’t know what other numbers say, but he seems to struggly mightily with picking balls out of the dirt (of which the Yankees’ IF provided plenty in Johnson’s day). Don’t know if that’s improved
The M’s have the bones to build a balanced team, that will both be competitive in 2005 and beyond. Do they have the b@lls? The truth is, they could sign Beltran or Beltre, both guys who would help now, and they could build around, and in addition, take a short-term risk on a guy who may be cheaper than normal (Glaus, Delgado, Nomar, perhaps Sexson) that would add some potency back into the lineup (the way Edgar used to). Actually, we probably have the bones to get BOTH Beltran AND Beltre, but the likelihood of this happening is atom-thin.
I think it’s fair to say that the M’s FO knows they have to make a big splash. How they interpret this is one thing, and how they’ll handle it is another. I’m very cautiously optimistic, but certainly not getting my hopes up…
Two words about Nick Johnson: “Carlos Guillen”
Prior to this breakout year, Guillen played 140, 134, and 109 games. This year he played 136, well in-line with his history.
Johnson played 129, 96, then 73 the past three years. He might someday get healthy, but I think it’s foolish to expect him to play more than 3/4 of the season and 100 games is more realistic.
While he’s only 26, his upside seems to be “average” first baseman rather than All-Star, which Guillen was/is.
My point is that the concept of “injury prone” is not understood. Somethimes there is luck involved, sometimes players don’t know how to stay healthy. If I’m not mistaken, sports medicine does not know what makes a player susceptible to injuries, especially non-recurring types of injury.
So for a player who is young than his peak, such as Guillen and Nick Jonshon, injury history or “proneness” should not be a factor.
Adam, he could be average. BB-ref’s Most Similar Batters shows some All-Stars.