Off-season timeline
Soooo slow news time for the M’s. Here’s what’s probably going to happen in the next couple of weeks.
Now: M’s quietly reach out to and interview managerial candidates. It’s possible they may even reach a decision before the end of the World Series, when MLB lifts their ban on announcements like, say, managerial hirings.
Then there’s a period where teams attempt to sign players to contracts to avoid heading to arbitration.
First week of December: last chance for teams to offer arbitration to players. Players not offered arbitration are free agents. Players who decline arbitration become free agents.
Now-February: players and teams sign contracts to avoid arbitration hearings by signing deals before they get to the hearing. Many split the difference.
February: arbitration hearings determine what those players who didn’t sign a deal will be paid next year.
Here’s what this means for Mariners fans waiting for big moves: the Dodgers will offer Beltre arbitration at the last possible moment, if they can’t get him to sign a contract before then. If he declines arbitration (and if he doesn’t re-sign, he’ll have the kind of interest that’ll make that happen — this isn’t Maddux 2003).
Sooo if we’re waiting for the big splashes, it’s likely to be a while.
Brad Radke
Continuing with the free agent profiles, and hopefully quickening their pace over the next few weeks.
The third best starting pitcher in the American League in 2004 is a free agent, and his name isn’t Pedro Martinez. Brad Radke rebounded from what looked like a decline into mediocrity to post a year right in line with his peak seasons. He posted a career low 3.48 ERA in 219 innings and posting a VORP of 60.1, tied with Jason Schmidt and just a tick behind Roger Clemens. That’s pretty good company, especially considering Radke’s mediocrity the previous two seasons. Going into 2004, PECOTA had him pegged for a VORP of 27.7 with a 90th percentile projection of 61.7, which he hit almost on the nose. Essentially, Radke’s performance last year, in the context of his 2002 and 2003 campaigns, should only be expected 1 out of 10 times. Radke certainly bucked the odds and reestablished himself as a force heading into his free agency.
However, Radke is a completely different pitcher than nearly every other starter on the market. Pedro and the previously discussed Matt Clement are power pitchers with big time strikeout rates. Radke only struck out 5.9 batters per 9 innings last year, a total that would fit into the career lines of Shigetoshi Hasegawa or Jamie Moyer. However, Radke walked twenty-six men the entire season, for a rate of 1.1 walks per 9 innings. His impeccable command led to a lot of balls in play that his defense converted to outs. As Jamie Moyer put on display for most of the past decade, pitchers who both command the strike zone and keep the ball in the park can succeed despite a low strikeout rate, and this is the pattern to success that Radke followed.
There is little doubt that, barring injury, Radke is a quality starter and will likely continue to be for the next several years. However, the price figures to be a bit of a problem. Radke’s expriing contract was a 4 year, $32 million deal that paid him $10.75 million in 2004. Coming off one of the best seasons of his career, it is not likely that he’s going to be amenable to taking any significant pay cut. Radke’s success, name recognition, and previous high salary are going to make him an expensive option for whichever team decides to sign him this offseason. You will essentially be paying full price for a pitcher who has almost no chance to improve. The likelyhood of getting more value out of Radke than you pay for is next to nil. In the words of the immortal Hubie Brown, Radke lacks “upside”. The risk that is involved with multiyear contracts for pitchers in general still applies, but Radke fails to offer the reciprocal positive potential of being a value for his salary.
Radke would be a good signing for a team who is on the verge of contending for a World Series crown and can afford to take a risk in order to put the team over the top. The Mariners are in a position of needing to obtain value or long term security by locking up young players. Radke cannot offer either, and as such, shouldn’t be a strong option for Bill Bavasi this offseason. If the market implodes and you can sign him to an Aaron Sele type 2 year, $15 million contract, go for it. But beyond that, there are better bargains to be had. Let another team pay retail for Brad Radke. When it comes to pitchers on the wrong side of 30 with Radke’s skillset, I’d rather shop at Big Lots .
More on Brundage
The Oregonian feauters an article advocating Brundage for manager, which will tell you why I’m way pro-Brundage and also a little anti-Brundage, as Brundage talks about being “aggressive”.
Also funny is this:
He knows that to be successful at Safeco Field, the Mariners must adopt a speed-oriented, National League style. Seattle strayed from that approach this year when it fielded one of the American League’s slowest teams.
Brundage doesn’t actually say that in the piece. But I find this interesting — I am continually baffled why people think this. The Mariner teams that have been successful in Safeco have got on base and hit for power, not stolen bases.
2000 – 91-71, OBP 4th in AL, SLG 8th in AL, SB 4th in SL
2001 – 116-46, OBP 1st in AL, SLG 4th in AL, SB 1st in AL
2002 – 93-69, OBP 2nd in AL, SLG 9th in AL, SB 2nd in AL
2003 – 93-69, OBP 4th in AL, SLG 10th in AL, SB 4th in AL
2004 – 63-99, OBP 10th in AL, SLG 14th in AL, SB 4th in AL
Does anyone really think that the difference between the 2001 Mariners and the 2004 Mariners offenses is that they went from 1st in SB to 4th in SB?
Managerial search
According to both Finnigan and Hickey, the Mariners are going to interview Don Baylor in the next day or two, and the short list includes Terry Collins, Joe Maddon, and Grady Little.
Yawn.