I’m sure some of you must have said “Boy, I can’t get enough of Derek, what with his column at Baseball Prospectus, his blogging here, and his constant complaining. I wish I could get more… but only if I could actually hear his voice, as if over a cross-country phone connection and then highly compressed into a lossy-but-internet-friendly-format.”
Now’s your chance! BP has posted the segments from my guest-host stint last week at Prospectus Radio. Thrill to the raw cliff-crumbling instability of my first time trying to host a radio show! Mock my overuse of certain terms and phrases when nervous! Estimate in gallons how much I sweated trying to pull this off. Look strangely at your speakers when my hand-selected new tunes replace the sports-talk standard issue hip-hop themes!
Scott McCauley’s intro
Larry Dierker, part one
Larry Dierker, part two
Everett Aquasox broadcaster Pat Dillon
Voice of the Rainiers Mike Curto
Scott McCauley’s outro, featuring another fine musical choice
“Future greats of tomorrow” indeed. Little Ed Wood moment for me there — “Future events such as these will affect you in the future…”
And I’d like to re-state my position that what the team really needs to do is offer Pudge enough money for him to take a 2-year deal. Honestly, if that’s $15m a year and he’d take a four-year deal for $40m, I’d still take the shorter deal. Unless Rodriguez wants to make the last two years vesting options based on some seriously aggressive goals (like, uh, finishes in the Top 10 in MVP voting or something) that would ensure he isn’t paid $10m in four years when he’s broken and unable to catch or stand in the batter’s box.
My point is that the upgrade both offensively and defensively over Wilson/Davis is so huge it’ll be worth it, and I’m loathe to give up Lopez, who might be Boone’s replacement soon, particularly considering that barring some insane chain of events, this is a team that needs to get younger in the coming years… oh, who am I kidding? At this rate, Gillvasi’s going to have the team get dramatically worse and more veteran-y every year and this might be the only decent shot to even get into the playoffs at all.
After Kaz signs the papers later today, the Mariners will designate him for assignment and place him on irrevocable waivers. This will remove him from the 40-man roster and clear his salary from the budget. While there is a 48-hour waiver period, the Mariners do not have to wait until that period is over to begin negotiating with the pot-of-gold that this situation has left them with. Whether Sasaki gets claimed by another team or not (and he won’t) will not affect his deal with the M’s. Theoretically, that $9.5 million should be in play starting today. All signs point towards the Mariners using it to make a run at Pudge Rodriguez, which I’m against, making it even more likely that the deal will be completed. You just don’t sign 32-year-old catchers to four year contracts. I wouldn’t give Pudge more than two years, and I can’t imagine he’d take a two year deal from us over a four year deal from Detroit.
However, the M’s have to spend this windfall or the public relations nightmare will grow exponentially. It may be wise to hold several million back for a trade-deadline acquisition, but the fans have been conditioned to believe that this team won’t make a trade in July, and will see a promise of future spending as a shallow attempt for the owners to pocket the money. Even if this is not true, faith in management has been shattered, and the Mariners will face a humungous backlash if the money isn’t spent before spring training. So, in that vein, what should they do?
Option 1A: Trade for Carlos Beltran.
This is the dream scenario, and perhaps the only one that could rescue this entire offseason and make the Mariners favorites in the AL West again. Beltran was 14th in the AL last year in Runs Above Position, marking him as one of the elite offensive players in the league. When you factor in his defensive prowess in center field, he was easily one of the ten best players in the league, and you could make an argument that he was in the top six or seven. He doesn’t turn 27 until after opening day, meaning he is entering the prime of his career. Unlike Raul Ibanez, his numbers weren’t greatly inflated by Kauffman Stadium. He’s historically much better in the second half, and that matters to some people (though not me). He’s also hit well at Safeco Field in 34 at-bats, and again, that matters to others. He’s the best baserunner in the game, having been successful on 150 out of 170 career attempts for a remarkable 88 % stolen base percentage. In the past 4 years, he is 123 for 135, or a ridiculous 91 % mark. All of his indicators are improving and nearly every projection system out there thinks he’s in for a monster, MVP type season. Toss in the fact that he’s a terrific defensive center fielder, which will have a positive cascade effect on the pitching staff, and he is the perfect addition to this team. Tremendously talented, entering his prime, on the cusp of superstardom but still not completely appreciated, and skilled at every aspect of the game. These types of players don’t become available very often.
Therein lies the rub. While Beltran is the perfect fit, most people assume that he simply isn’t available, or at least not for a reasonable price. The Royals believe they can contend in the Worst Division in Sports, and signed Juan Gonzalez to complement an offense that needed a lift. Trading their best player wouldn’t fit with the rest of their offseason moves, designed to contend in 2004. However, Beltran is a free agent at the end of the year, is advised by Scott Boras, and the Royals have next to no hope of retaining his services. Allard Baird, GM of the Royals, has repeatedly and recently been quoted as saying that he has “to be willing to listen”, but “for anything to happen, I need a return that helps us in the short term and in the long term.” Basically, Baird wants to receive enough talent to insure that his team can still compete in 2004 and replenish the team with young talent greater than what he would receive in compensation for Beltran signing with another team (assuming the Royals offered arbitration, which is not a sure bet).
Obviously, the Mariners would include Randy Winn in any trade. He is a Royals-style player, and would be attractive with the new, two-year contract he signed during the offseason. He is due $3.5 million this year, and $3.75 million next year, so the financial savings for the Royals would be significant, allowing them to acquire another mid-level free agent to help in their pennant chase. However, Winn is still a far cry from Beltran, and Baird has been quoted as desiring a major league ready third baseman, second baseman, and catcher in the past year. The Mariners have effectively blocked Justin Leone for the remainder of his useful years, so adding him to the trade adds little value. He would essentially be a throw-in. Ben Davis’ usefulness to the Royals expired when they signed Benito Santiago to a two-year contract, so don’t expect him to have any value to Baird. The Mariners lack a major league ready second baseman, but you can be certain that Jose Lopez would help increase the odds of this trade going down. While Lopez is considered the Mariners shortstop of the future, I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in the deal. He is at least two years away, and has a similar skillset to a great number of failed prospects. His plate discipline and conditioning are legitimate concerns, and I have a hard time seeing him as more than a Tony Batista type player right now. Adding in a pitching prospect the caliber of Rett Johnson, Travis Blackley, or even Clint Nageotte is not something you should do lightly, but all three would have value to the Royals as potential 2004 contributors and the future value that Baird will require.
So, essentially, the Royals would be looking for a package of something like Winn, Lopez, R. Johnson (to pick one), and Leone for Beltran. I know some will scream that the price is too high to pay, but I make that deal, and I don’t have any regrets. Carlos Beltran is a difference maker, and he’s the only one in the deal who will ever have anything close to an MVP type season. He is the type of player you overpay for.
Over the next few days, I’ll run down my list of other options, though Beltran should be the one in the sights. You do everything you can, within reason, to acquire him, and only move on to the rest of the bunch when you are convinced that you cannot strike a deal with Kansas City.
New M’s blog on the M’s minor leagues: Mariner Minors.
Also new out there:
Sons of Buhner. If you thought I wrote long posts, check these dudes out.
Mariner Optimist. Which neatly divides the Blogosphere into optimist/pessimist camps, which I think (and have gone on about for some length in email) is wrong (on account of… well never mind, no one cares what I think about this…). It’s his blog though, he’s free to list me in the “Cranky Internet Columnist” section if he feels like it.
Which brings up a point: if you’ve got a M’s blog and we’re not pointing to it, there’s one reason: we haven’t updated it yet. Feel free to drop us a note. I’d like to offer more… categorized listings, but generally speaking, updating links is way, way down on our priority list, so it doesn’t get done frequently. Which, uh, is part of why I put off adding links at all for so long, because I knew I wasn’t going to be able to keep up on this stuff. So bear with us.
Someone could actually write a blog about the different M’s blogs by this point. To think that just a couple months ago… (sniff)… I’m just so happy…
There’s a guy in the LA Times recommending that the Dodgers hire Gillick (which would involve a dangerous operation to seperate Bavasi and Gillick, which the Dodgers would presumably pay for) to be their GM. I’d provide a link, but I’m annoyed at the LA Times and their registration policy, which made it hard for me to read the article even though I’d already registered before. In any event – Bavasi’s hinted that Gillick’s been approached before and turned it down, prefering to run the M’s from the shadows like some Sith Lord* but here’s my opinion on this issue:
I’d rather Gillick took over running another AL West team so our 85-win Mariners could have a better shot at the playoffs.
* ObStarWars reference.. sorry, it’s been a while.
Hey, dumb post. I read our email sometimes and think “Why did they send us this link? We posted about this a couple hours ago?” I realized today that that means that many of you, seeing some M’s related story out in the wild, think “Sweet Dave Fleming! Have those U.S.S. Mariner guys heard about this yet?” and mail it to us immediately, without worrying about it, because emailing us is the first thing that pops into your head when you see that stuff.
That’s pretty cool, and I want you all to know that I hope that the work we do here continues to get that kind of respect in the coming season. I was born into being an M’s fan, but I’ve learned to love our readers. Y’all rule.
On a more relevant note — fans of “The Fix” (and I was happy to find there were a bunch) will be disappointed to know that something else (news to follow, maybe) is going on and has kept me from posting the next couple of chapters. More on that when circumstances allow, but I’m trying.
Derek’s World of Lineups
—
A Long Post
I wanted to write a follow-up to Dave’s long lineup speculation eariler.
Here’s your regulars, along with their relevant stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) by 3-year split
C: crap
1b: LH Olerud, vLHP .258/.347/.360 vRHP .303/.409/.486, negative speed, ground ball hitter
2b: RH Boone, vLHP .328/.401/.572 vRHP .292/.345/.510, no speed, ground ball hitter
SS: RH Aurilia, vLHP .283/.329/.531, vRHP .290/.337/.456, no speed, fly ball hitter
3b: B Spiezio, vLHP .281/.356/.406, vRHP .271/.336/.457, some speed, fly ball hitter
LF: LH Ibanez, vLHP .253/.294/.399, vRHP .304/.364/.523, no speed, neutral hitter
CF: B Winn, vLHP .323/.379/.490, vRHP .279/.338/.411, speed, ground ball hitter
RF: LH Ichiro! vLHP .344/.383/.439, vRHP .322/.370/.440, speed, ground ball hitter
DH: RH Martinez, vLHP .281/.438/.542, vRHP .299/.402/.495, no speed, neutral hitter (well.. career, slight ground, last 3 slight fly, last year, slight ground)
Possible bench players:
UT-L Hansen, vLHP –, v RHP .259/.364/.350, no speed, severe ground ball hitter
IF-R Bloomquist, vLHP .286/.350/.390, vRHP .274/.345/.331, some speed, serious ground baller
OF-B McCracken, vLHP .266/.320/.342, vRHP .277/.333/.406, some speed, ground baller
SS-B Santiago, vLHP .197/.245/.250, vRHP .245/.316/.335, massive groudballer
whichever catcher’s not not hitting that day
And just for fun —
Ichiro with runners on — .346/.417/.460
Winn with runners on — .315/.373/.464
So in general: Edgar and Olerud are death on the basepaths, to the point where you want to keep groundballers out from behind them because it’s an automatic double play unless it’s the Yankees on defense. I like alternating L/R matchups, if only because it means that other Melvin-like managers then use their bullpen in the same limited way Melvin does, and you churn through their guys faster (well, slower, because the game crawls, but you know what I meant). So here —
— Versus Righties —
B- Winn
L- Ichiro
R -Boone
R -Edgar
L- Ibanez
R- Aurilia
L- Olerud
B- Spiezio
R/B – catcher
Winn-Ichiro is a toss and you can go either way: Ichiro’s OBP is better, and you want your OBP guys as far up in the order as possible. But the problem (really) is as much as you’d love to have another high average/high OBP man up there, the other high OBP guys are all power dudes, and just putting any of them in the two spot means there’s less of a chance you’ve managed to get Ichiro/Winn around to second in time. Plus if you bat Ichiro second to take advantage of infield positioning, you have to have a speed guy to make the threat viable. This then either lets Winn steal at will or lets Ichiro get hits at will.
Depending on how wedded you are to L-R over the double-play protection, you can flip Ibanez for Aurilia there (which I like, now that I think about it) and get another fly ball hitter, but then you have to do the opposite further down swapping Spiezio/Olerud, and concede more DPs at the bottom of the order. I figured you might as well punt that when you’re looking at having Davis/Wilson come up next. Still, there is an alternative plan:
L-Ichiro!
R-Boone
L- Ibanez
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
L- Olerud
B- Spiezio
B- Winn
(catcher)
It’s a little nutty, but Winn isn’t that hot of a hitter, and this lineup largely preserves L/R and protects against the DP. I don’t like the idea of having Boone play hit-and-run games, though, and it also means that the switch-hitters are grouped low. You could swap Aurilia and Spiezio, depending on how good of a hitter they are these days (the three-year splits… well, we’ll see how Rich does).
The other thing you have to consider is what happens if they bring in a lefty reliever: both Olerud and Ibanez turn into pumpkins, so as much as possible you’d like to have those guys further down in the order or keep them surrounded with huge-anti-lefty weapons, like Aurilia and Winn in addition to the usual suspects, so the opposing manager is forced to burn a pitcher to try and get that one out or they leave the righty in to face Boone/Martinez/Aurilia with the side benefit, for the M’s, of getting Ibanez fewer at-bats against lefties.
And then you can even start to think about the finer points there: is it worth it to try and get that lefty if you can stack Ibanez/Olerud close enough (say, with a lefty-masher between them) that it looks tempting for the other guy to bring in a lefty to face all three, and then when you get to Olerud you pinch-hit Greg Col… oh. Well, never mind, that doesn’t work for us.
— Versus Lefties —
B- Winn
L- Ichiro!
R- Boone
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
L- Ibanez
B- Spiezio (at 1b)
R- Bloomquist (at 3b)
(catcher)
The Bloomquist-Spiezio tandem gets you a little power and (blasphemy, I know) more defense back over Olerud-Spiezio. The slow Martinez gets a fly ball man behind him. If McCracken can play left field well, he’s a decent sub for Ibanez out there, but then you’re forced to figure out how to swap Ibanez back in if a rightie comes up. That’s the whole problem with the bottom of this lineup: you’ve got five mashers and then… what? Ibanez’s bad bat, then Spiezio’s a high-average, high-OBP guy without much power versus lefties, but without the speed to threaten the steal like Winn/Ichiro. Bloomquist has some speed, but before you start entertaining LaRussa-style thoughts of putting together a second offense, the catchers both hit for average, decent, decent SLG versus lefties… you almost want to punt Ibanez entirely:
B- Winn
L- Ichiro!
R- Boone
R- Martinez
R- Aurilia
B- Spiezio (at 1b)
(catcher)
R- Bloomquist (at 3b)
B-McCracken/L- Ibanez
If you think Winn’s power v lefties is real, you can swap Spiezio into the leadoff (seriously) and move Winn behind Martinez at #5, putting a switch-hitter between him and Aurilia.
There is an important thing to consider, though, and that’s whether players will take to it. Performance-oriented analysts (like Y.T.) generally scoff at notions like “it takes a special skill to pitch the ninth inning” but if Ibanez is going to be pissy about trying to hide his weaknesses, and Ichiro only wants to bat first, no matter what, and so forth, the team has to weigh whether that unhappiness and potential performance hit is worth it to try for the marginal potential advantage.
The Mariners should offer Pudge a one-year or two deal at something higher annually. The deal Pudge wants is guaranteed to go sour at four years, and almost certainly at three. If you have to go $12-14m next year to avoid paying him $10m in 2007 to be on the DL, that’s a couple million dollars well spent. Fixing that last sinkhole of outs in the lineup would do wonders for the offense, maybe enough to make my constant 85-game predictions look dumb.
I know, I know.
We kid because we care, Jason.
Nope, no trade (at least that I know of). You’ll have to speak with my agent for the official word, though.
Really, though, I started a new job this week and am moving this weekend. Hopefully things will settle down pretty quick.