Game 25, Mariners at Astros
Justin Dunn vs. Zack Greinke, 5:10pm
Well, the M’s have lost the first two games of this series, and now face the prospect of losing their hot-hitting RF. Mitch Haniger was just scratched from the line-up. It could be nothing, but we’re used to not worrying too much when Haniger goes out of the line-up, and then weeks later we learn it was something much worse. Hopefully none of that’s the case here, and it’s just vaccine symptoms or something; we’re seeing a lot of days off for guys after their second dose, and that’s a pretty good reason to miss a game.
Cristian Javier was quite tough yesterday, and now the M’s face Greinke, who *also* held them scoreless for 7 IP when the Astros were in Seattle. On the plus side, it’s been great to see Marco Gonzales put his first two starts of the year behind him and pitch more or less like himself again, but his high-ish walk rates remain a bit of a concern and may prevent him from reaching the heights he got to in 2020.
Shannon Drayer was one of many around the beat to talk about high strikes and their role in suppressing batting average this year. It’s a good point, and after checking it with statcast data, it does seem to be true: Pitches at the top of and just above the zone have always been good for pitchers, but the wOBA-against on them has plummeted this year compared to recent years. And a big part of that isn’t just swings-and-misses on ever-faster fastballs (I’m watching Jacob deGrom as I type this), but rather a decline in batting averages on balls in play. That, in turn, seems to be driving a big decline in BABIP overall. We’re getting an odd mix of 1980s-style BABIPs and walk rates with heretofore inconceivable strikeout rates and 2018-ish HR rates.
For more on the drop in averages, check out this Brendan Gowlowski piece at FG, which I would recommend even if he didn’t cite me in it. I mentioned the possibility for some very low BAs on the Mariners before the season started, and well, yes, the M’s can’t hit for average. The silver lining here is…neither can anyone else. I thought this would be a real competitive disadvantage for the M’s, and it is to a degree, but it’s been minimized by the struggles the entire league has had.
1: Haggerty, 2B
2: France, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: White, 1B
6: Marmolejos, “RF”
7: Trammell, LF
8: Torrens, C
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Dunn
Which will (or should) happen first: Evan White being optioned to Tacoma (or Arkansas), or Jarred Kelenic being promoted? Same time?
Baseball is indeed a strange game. It’s 5-2 Seattle with a lineup full of suck and the best hitter, France, is 0-2.
Dunn has arguably outpitched Greinke through (nearly) 6.
Whatever, I’ll take it.
Whoops-a-doodle!
Fun fact: Evan White has a lower career OPS+ than Mark Belanger (noted banjo-hitting Gold Glove shortstop of the 1970s Orioles).
Also… I’m not convinced swapping Marmolejos for White at 1B is actually an improvement. I guess something like:
France 1B
Haniger DH (occasional OF)
Kelenic RF
Trammell LF
Lewis CF
Honestly, Dylan Moore shouldn’t be a starter though (though neither should Haggerty).
-sigh-
With a three game losing streak, a decent lead, and with Montero not being particularly sharp the last few games, doesn’t it seem like one or two pitchers should have been warming up as Montero began his relief appearance?
And insult to injury, or injury to insult: Gonzales hits the 10-day IL.