Nice Timing, Jack
Dave · January 28, 2009 at 8:51 am · Filed Under Mariners
I just posted a long treatise on the rotation candidates, including Aaron Heilman, and now you’ve gone and are reportedly close to trading him to the Cubs.
From what I can gather, the M’s would be getting Ronny Cedeno + in return. If the M’s can get Cedeno and Rich Hill out of the deal, we should all send Zduriencik a valentine.
Edit: Ken Rosenthal confirms that we’re getting Cedeno and “a pitching prospect” for Heilman. No Rich Hill – we’ll talk about the prospect once he’s identified.
I don’t get it. Cedeno is barely better than Yuni at SS, he’s not good defensively. I would rather take the risk that Yuni might actually develop with some weight loss and improved hitting discipline than just replace him with somebody who’s essentially just as bad. Heilman still has the potential to be an excellent reliever if he gets it back together – no question in my mind he’s more valuable than Ronny Cedeno, that’s for sure.
If this deal actually goes through, the lovefest for Z is officially over for me, especially since the freakin’ Pirates just signed Hinske to be their 4th outfielder.
Cedeno is barely better than Yuni at SS, he’s not good defensively.
Cedeno is actually very good defensively.
I would rather take the risk that Yuni might actually develop with some weight loss and improved hitting discipline than just replace him with somebody who’s essentially just as bad.
Cedeno isn’t replacing Yuni – he’d be the backup infielder who would spell both Lopez and Betancourt, giving the team some depth it doesn’t have right now.
Heilman still has the potential to be an excellent reliever if he gets it back together – no question in my mind he’s more valuable than Ronny Cedeno, that’s for sure.
CHONE projects Cedeno for a .329 wOBA in 2009 – higher than that of Jose Lopez, and way higher than Betancourt. There’s real reasons to think that Cedeno could be significantly more valuable to the M’s future than Heilman, especially if the club isn’t sold on Heilman as a starter.
If this deal actually goes through, the lovefest for Z is officially over for me, especially since the freakin’ Pirates just signed Hinske to be their 4th outfielder.
Seriously, you’re going to ignore the amazing transformation this club has undergone this winter because Pittsburgh signed a one win OF to a one year deal?
Seriously?
I think Cedeno is the utility man Z’s been after, not a Yuni replacement (although if it puts a little pressure on Yuni, so much the better).
Dave – What’s the likelihood we also get Hill?
What does this portend for Reegie Corona?
And if we also got Rich Hill, I will deem Jack Z. the favorite for executive of the year.
Honestly, I would rather have Hill than Heilman, putting aside Cedeno.
If Cedeno is “very good” defensively (i.e. better than Betancourt), and he is projected for a higher wOBA than Betancourt, and he’s a year younger than Betancourt … is there any real downside to Cedeno regularly taking the field, especially if Betancourt gets off to a slow start?
Also, Cedeno’s OPS+ over the last few years, albeit in limited at-bats, has been well below Yuni’s. Why would his projected wOBA be higher than Betancourt’s – to say nothing of Lopez?
I’m asking as a raw novice with this stuff who is trying to understand.
Since Zduriencik has been trying to pick up another utility infielder basically all offseason, I’m guessing the glory of the Reegie Corona era was always likely to be fairly limited.
Also, Cedeno’s OPS+ over the last few years, albeit in limited at-bats, has been well below Yuni’s. Why would his projected wOBA be higher than Betancourt’s – to say nothing of Lopez?
Cedeno’s minor league track record is very good. As a 21-year-old in Double-A, he hit .279/.321/.401 with 30 extra base hits. For a middle infielder, that’s pretty good.
As a 22-year-old in Triple-A, he hit .355/.403/.518 with 23 extra base hits in 245 at-bats. Then, he got to the majors and got jerked around a bit, but went back to Triple-A in 2007 as a 24-year-old and hit .359/.422/.537 with 28 extra base hits in 287 AB.
Cedeno hasn’t yet hit in the majors, but it’s still less than 1,000 plate appearances. He’s shown gap power and contact ability. There’s life in his bat that his major league numbers don’t show.
Not at all. But the team will probably let Yuni play until he clearly shouldn’t anymore.
This could mean that they’ll try to trade Yuni if he has a good start to the season.
What does this portend for Reegie Corona?
They probably try to sneak him through waivers and at the end of ST and hope the Yankees don’t want him back, so they can send him to Triple-A and keep him in the organization.
Looks like Ken Rosenthal has jumped on this as well. Says it is expected to be announced today.
Ah, got it. Thanks.
Is there a good article anywhere out there that explains how minor-league performance correlates to major-league stats? I know that they do, and I’ve read here that they do, but I’d like to know more about how predictive they are. I’ve run a USSM search and didn’t find anything on the subject.
His SS range numbers are below average, his 2B numbers are solid. Is this just based on reputation? Minor league splits has Cedeno’s SS range as -11 one year and +11 the next.
Apparently ESPN radio said this might mean Lopez to first.
Cedeno’s UZR numbers are based on pretty small samples.
Also based on pretty small sample: I was in the press box at the 2007 Caribbean series, and Cedeno’s defense at shortstop was the talk of the tournament among reporters, scouts, and coaches alike. It’s easy to see him grading out as at least average at short and excellent at 2B given a regular job.
The huge volatility in Cedeno’s UZR numbers look like either injuries or small sample size. Since nobody’s ever mentioned an injury problem, must be the sample. But when he’s good, he looks very very good.
Its going to be interesting seeing how SS/2B shakes out. Good play by Cedeno could take PT away from Lopez or Betancourt. Seeing how Z sought out Cedeno you’d have to think he’d get a chance to win either of those jobs, no? Am I crazy?
Looks like Cedeno and Garrett Olson will be with the Mariners.
A box of rags would barely be worse than Yuni at this point. He’s playing at a replacement level with a horrible work ethic.
It’s this pitching prospect that’s the real wild card.
Am I in the minority here to view this trade as simply moving a replaceable aging bullpen arm that was only under team control for a very limited time and had very questionable risk/reward concerns for younger players with similar risk/reward potential to help the organization both in depth and roles for a longer period of time. You never know about the arm prospect the M’s are getting, it could be another Cleto type.
I went to look at Fangraphs numbers. he’s listed as a -5 SS (and was -25 last year!). He is however a +22 and 2B… Which is a bigger than expected split. He seems to be about, what, 2 wins better at second base after positional adjustments. (which is probably exaggerated?)
All that being said, what do you know that we don’t know, to base that statement on? I still prefer a set of eyes for defensive evaluation, so I’d like to hear what it is that you’ve seen that trumps the Fangaphs rating. Thanks!
Heilman probably asked to be traded after being interviewed by Sims the other day. That was awful.
“So, do you rest the arm for a couple of months after the season or do you just throw year ’round?” “So, do pitchers show their whole aresnal during spring training or do they hold back?” “So, do you like cheese fries?” “So, do you like movies about gladiators?”
We’ve always said that you need multiple years of defensive data before you can use them as the main source of your evaluations. Cedeno’s UZR is still in the SSS variety.
Scouts, however, have been universally praising his defense forever. That’s a data point in favor of his defense.
Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com is reporting that the minor league pitcher is Garrett Olson, who the Cubs got from Baltimore in the recent Felix Pie deal. What’s your take on Olson, Dave?
How brilliant is this:
(1) Z buys low on Heilman from the Mets, who grew tired of him in 2008 and didn’t have a rotation opening that Heilman has long craved.
(2) Z sells high on Heilman to the Cubs, who have long covetted Heilman and can let him compete for the #5 spots.
3 years of Cedeno is worth more than 1 year of Heilman. Case closed. I don’t care if you think Heilman could be a #4 starter. I don’t care if you think Heilman could succeed as a closer. We’re talking about 1 year of Heilman and 3 years of Cedeno. And that seals the deal as an improvement for the M’s. Cedeno should be at least a 1 win player annually if he is a starter, and that is really a bare minimum. It is highly unlikely Heilman could put up much more than a 3 win season as a starter or reliever (he has only been worth 3.7 wins his whole career).
Add into the fact that Cedeno can push both Betancourt and Lopez for PT and its an even better deal. Hopefully both guys get the message that defense matters for the new M’s. Hell, I think Cedeno’s better than Betancourt right now offensively and defensively.
Add in Olson as another rotation/bullpen candidate and it makes the deal that much better for the M’s.
The only reason I wouldn’t like the deal is if this pushes Lopez to 1B. That would be a poor decision.
Incidentally, I’m not down on the deal from the Cubs perspective either. They weren’t going to let Cedeno start and Heilman is a short-term upgrade over Olson. Heilman is worth more than Cedeno and Olson this year, based on how the Cubs would use all the players. So its an OK win-now move for them.
Anderson at FG says “eh” about Olson.
Well, to briefly re-open the case, doesn’t Heilman still have 2 more years of team control/arbitration-eligiblity–aka this offseason and next offseason–or, put another way, the M’s would’ve had him for 2009 and 2010(barring a trade, which they now did).
And now the Cubs have him for that same period, barring another trade(or, non-tendering him).
So let’s see, updating our running totals, it’s now:
Putz, Green, Reed, and Valbuena
for
Gutierrez, Chavez, Cedeno, Olsen, Cleto, and Carp
Cedeno is Valbuena with more upside; Olsen has more risk/reward than Green. Other than age, Reed is a swap for Chavez. Putz is a loss, but Putz for
Guitierrez plus a couple of minor leaguers? On top of upgraded potential elsewhere? Sure it’s just potential, and potential in baseball disappears faster than daylight in December, but you make up for that with quantity. And that’s a solid haul. I’d say Zduriencik is still ahead of the game, unless the M’s can’t find anybody to close (and are in enough close games, and near enough to the top of the division, for it to matter). Most importantly, the FO seems to be valuing players correctly and making smart decisions on that basis, which will pay off in the aggregate regardless of what happens with any particular player.
You’re forgetting Jason Vargas and Ezequiel Carrera.
If anyone is wondering about the cubs fans reactions check out the comments on the espn article… I could only find one cub comment that was happy with the deal.
Impressive deal for Z to pull off
You’re right. Man, that’s impressive.