After the storm
I avoided the blog yesterday. I didn’t post, didn’t comment, and didn’t read. It wasn’t for lack of things to say, but I decided I just wanted to take 24 hours and pretend like the Mariners didn’t exist. I don’t think avoidance is one of the approved twelve steps, but sometimes, you just need a break. I collected my thoughts, let the emotions simmer, and now, hopefully, can give you a rational take on what the Vidro trade really means for the Mariners.
This trade doesn’t hurt the Mariners that badly next year. Most of the positive things Jeff said the other day are still true. This move didn’t make Felix’s arm fall off or send Ichiro to a planet far far away. This was a .500-ish club on Wednesday morning, and it’s a .500-ish club today. Even if the prayers of the saints go for naught and Jose Vidro passes his physical, it will still be a .500-ish club tomorrow.
The visceral reaction we all had to this trade isn’t because we believe it ruined the 2007 season or that we had dreams of Doyle winning the MVP award and carrying the team on his back. In reality, the team with Vidro isn’t much different than the team with Snelling and Fruto. We understand that the team is making moves it believes need to be made to contend, and that Bavasi and Hargrove would rather not lose their jobs because they staked their career to the continued health of Doyle.
The series of moves the Mariners have completed in the past 10 days aren’t the end of the world from a talent-on-field perspective. The team’s future hasn’t been sacrificed beyond repair, and the core of an eventual contender is still in place. But, in the past week and a half, we have been given conclusive evidence of one indisputable conclusion that cannot be avoided, cannot be waved away with talk of the volcanic market, and is a depressing fact to have to face as a fan. This management team is best described with one word:
Incompetent. Literally, they are legally unqualified, inadequate to or unsuitable for a particular purpose, lacking the qualities needed for effective action, and unable to function properly.
I’m not using the word as an attack on their intelligence out of an emotional reaction or as an insult to try to make myself feel better. I’m describing the baseball operations department as incompetent because the dictionary definition of the word fits the organization to a tee.
They are not ignorant, as they don’t lack information. They have access to better research, data, and reports than any of us could dream about. They just don’t understand how to apply the knowledge they have at their fingertips. They have unlimited resources and, with their appealing geographic location, they could easily obtain help from some of the best and brightest minds in the baseball world. Instead, Bill Bavasi, Dan Evans, and the staff of consultants continue to evaluate players with the same tools their mentors used 20 or 30 years ago.
It’s physically impossible to use any kind of analytical thinking and arrive at the conclusion that Jose Vidro, as a designated hitter, is worth $6 million a year. Even if you assign no value to Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto, you still have to completely misunderstand the amount of talent available to fill a DH position to decide that Jose Vidro is your best option.
This isn’t an isolated incidence. It’s Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago. It’s a three year deal for Scott Spiezio, non-tendering Mike Cameron, a four year deal for Jarrod Washburn, settling on Carl Everett as your 2006 DH, trying to pass Francisco Cruceta through waivers, trading Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez, and now, selecting Jose Vidro as the 2007-2008 DH and giving up actual talent for the right to overpay a below average player.
Incompetence – lacking the qualities needed for effective action. I like Bill Bavasi as a person (though after this post, I doubt the feeling will be mutual), but if he doesn’t like the label, take it up with Merriam Webster, because there’s not a better word in the English language to describe the abilities of those currently running the Seattle Mariners.
They all deserve to lose their jobs. Antonetti in ’08.
As mediocre as the Mariner organization is, there is one slight consolation: at least they are not the New York Knicks.
Nope, no way, notta……
That’s kind of the reason behind the frustration with Bavasi isn’t it? This team has a solid enough core for the next several years. Just with a decent off season which addresses certain issues, perhaps in a bit of a stick your neck out if your the GM on the hot seat fashion, there would be legitimate hope that the Ms could be a contender for the division. Certainly if the last two off seasons were approached differently, then certainly this team couldve been rationally hoped to win 90 games.
Nothin’ needs tore down….the foundation and floor plan ain’t too bad and the plumbing works just fine…its the interior decorator that’s keeping the house from selling…
Hope is all quickened
Bavasi and Hargrove
I fall on my face
Yes all hope is alive after the season, awaiting whats to come next spring.
then Hargrove and Bavasi strangle the hope we have as fans
know wonder we are frustrated with thier antics!
RE #129,
I agree with the argument that the M’s need to go through another rebuild.
In the past three years, Bavasi has saddled the club with enough overpaid, old, mediocre players that a rebuild is in order.
Obviously, the M’s are going to have to start from scratch like a normal rebuilding club. They are not in the same situation the organization was in back in 2003-2004. There is a core of good players in Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, Jones, and Putz. You can build around those guys.
But the new GM is going to have to spend some time clearing the roster after taking over for Bavasi and friends.
I am hoping that a change happens mid-season, so that the club can get a jump on rebuilding. It sucks to say this, but I am actually hoping that the M’s fall way back in the standings by June. As Dave points out, this front office is not capable of running the organization in a coherent or capable manner. If another season of non-contention is what it takes to foster radical changes, then so be it.
One reason why Antonetti would be a great candidate to replace Bavasi is becasue the Indians clearly understand the importance of a good housecleaning. Their fire sale a few years ago was brilliant. And, judging by the Coco Crisp trade, they are not afraid to look into the future even when they are not in full rebuild mode. That is what we need.
Regardless of who takes over, I hope that the change takes place before the trade deadline next year. That way, the M’s could try to move guys like Sexson, Washburn, Guillen, and Vidro off the roster before next offseason. If Ichiro isn’t resigned by then, they could get something for him before he hits free agency. Ibanez and Batista could also be moved, depending on the clubs situation, although I think both could be useful parts beyond 2007.
The M’s don’t need to completely tear apart the roster. But they do need to ditch several of the horrible contracts like Vidro, Washburn, and Sexson. Otherwise, there will be no money left to add really good players for 2008 and beyond. Hopefully, the M’s make that change before mid-season, so that Bavasi’s successor can get started on fixing this mess before next offseason.
#150 – I agree that we all do tend to dump on Gillick a little too much. He helped bring a lot of wins here. But I don’t know about your defense of his management of the farm system.
I’m a baseball nut (although not a huge prospect guy), but I’ve only heard of maybe 2/3 of these guys, and of those only a few have contributed to MLB. It seems to me that it is an indictment of Gillick that 3 or 4 years after leaving our system has produced so few regulars. And none of these guys came in the first year or two, right, so the upper parts of the system were really unproductive. Am I wrong?
As mediocre as the Mariner organization is, there is one slight consolation: at least they are not the New York Knicks.
Hoops roster construction is hilarious like that. Tank a few years, score some high draft picks, trade for some expiring draft picks, make a few deals, and blam, you’re the Cleveland Cavs led by LeBron James.
The good news is that Vidro just may fail that physical. The bad news is that Bavasi can still target Mark Grudzielanek, Ronnie Belliard, Tony Graffanino, or Ian Kinsler as our next great DH of the future.
If you look really carefully, you can see the dried teardrops on DMZ’s latest offering.
I won’t say you’re wrong as you have a right to a difference in opinion.
A lot of kids you haven’t heard about were 16-17 year olds when they were signed and were planted as seeds in the farm before Gillick left. Mattox focused on drafting positional tool players. I’d bet Mattox wouldn’t be too shabby if he focused soley on pitching in the drafts with high school kids if Fontaine left.
Pat Rice was glowing about Ramirez on the radio a week or so ago, and Eddy Fernandez arguably is better than Ramirez and they could both be in Wisconsin this year. Garth and Casey Craig were Mid West All-Stars this year and they have good ceilings.
Producing few regulars in the majors? You may want to check our 40-man roster. Julio Mateo, George Sherrill, J.J. Putz, Cha Seung Baek, Jose Lopez, Feierabend, and O’Flaherty are all projected to be on the opening day Major League roster. All players acquired under Gillick, and he’s been gone since 2003. Snelling and Choo would be on the M’s M.L. roster if it weren’t for bad player evaluation and incompetence ny Bavasi.
I’d bet Mattox wouldn’t be too shabby if he focused soley on pitching in the drafts with high school kids if Fontaine left.
Uh, didn’t we see the results of Mattox drafting a ton of high school pitchers? Particularly tall, left-handers? He took a thousand of those kids and none of them turned out.
# 147
“You forgot to list Felix for under the old regime.
Also, Jeff Clement hasn’t fizzed. He’s played one year and don’t forget he tore up AA ball.”
You should catch up on Jeff’s winter season in Hawaii where he hit .125 and couldn’t throw any one out.
If he makes it it’ll be as 1b or dh
156: Because LeBron James types come around so often, huh? 😉
Well, you are right for one thing in that he did draft many pitchers over six years that didn’t turn out. But some did turn out. Frank didn’t do a good job, but as we all know in drafts many don’t ever turn out. The following pitchers below were drafted by Mattox.
Drafted by Mattox in 6 years:
Eric O’Flaherty-LHP
Ryan Feierabend-LHP
Joe Woerman-RHP
J.J. Putz-RHP
Matt Thornton-LHP
Rich Harden-RHP
O’Flaherty is a Major Leaguer now, and Feierabend and Woerman are currently protected on the 40-man roster with Feierabend is highly probable on making the MLB roster this spring. Putz is a stud, and Thornton was a late bloomer for the Chi-Sox, and we couldn’t sign Rich Harden despite Lincoln having banks of overflowing cash.
I’d say having only five pitchers he did sign in six rule 4 drafts isn’t spectacular for Mattox. I’d like to forget the ’98 and ’02 draft ever happened. However, if Mattox focused on pitching and drafted as many if not more pitchers than Fontaine did this year, the odds would favor landing some more fish. Heck if Antonetti’s man drafted mainly pitching he hook more bites.
Keep in mind in ’04 Fontaine busted out on pitching with the exception of Mark Lowe. He also drafted tons of arms and they haven’t panned out either.
In ’05 Kahn and Varvaro are the only potential decent grabs out of tons of arms he drafted. ’06 is Fontaine’s masterpiece, and is it a coincidence that he drafted 34 pitchers in that draft alone?
Clearly Fontaine is the better guy, but the step down might not be as steep as many think. If Mattox or Antonetti’s guy drafts 34+ pitchers in a draft they might land more than one legit prospect like Fontaine did this year.
One area where Bavasi does have more information than us is on the amount of money that teams have to spend on player payroll; specifically he and his fellow GM are best positioned to know when there are new sources of revenue that are likely to add to payroll. I’m not talking about one or two owners opening their pocketbooks; I’m referring to situations such as we’ve seen this season when almost every team appears to have more money to spend.
In that context, smart GMs put that information to work and anticipate that the market is going to ratchet up. Smart player agents also track that information and anticipate the market. Other GMs are caught by surprise, and find themselves being outmaneuvered by other GMs and by player agents.
******
IMHO – Bavasi’s statment that he was caught by surprise self-impeaches him.
I think this Mattox v anyone debate’s been hashed over repeatedly here, and deserves more space than I think we can give it in the post-150 comment point in a thread. I’m happy, at least, you’re willing to concede that Mattox is behind Fontaine, even if I’m a little surprised at the size of the gap you’d put between the two.
160
Yeah, 53 at bats in Hawaii definately means Clement is a busted prospect. What was I thinking? /rolleyes
And just so you know, Jeff hit .179, not .125 and it doesn’t look that bad if you took the time to, you know, investigate instead of just spouting off the crap you heard elsewhere, and found out that the entire league batted just .235.
But again, I’m in way too far, we should clearly give up on Jeff Clement because of those 53 at bats.
IMHO – Bavasi’s statment that he was caught by surprise self-impeaches him
Kevin Towers: “We had a pretty good idea of the clubs that were flush with money, but it’s also a soft market, with not a lot of great inventory. Because of the lack of impact players, that’s driving up costs. But it’s not the dollars being handed out as much as the years that gets me. We’re back to seeing six-, seven-year deals. I just never thought we’d see that kind of contract ever again. I never thought we’d ever see anything beyond five years ever again. Shame on me. I was wrong.”
Jim Bowden: “I’m surprised at the stultified dollars that have been spent on mediocre players. It’s just amazing to me, because even with the revenues being as high as ever in the game, there’s not enough to support the type of signings that are being done.”
Ken Williams … “insists they aren’t giving up on the 2007 season but are reacting to a runaway marketplace. “There’s a strategy to all of this. I think the free agent market is out of control. A lot of us were shell-shocked to the money being spent.”
#166:
That merely means that Bavasi was not alone. Other GMs clearly had the money and were willing to spend. Other GMs may have seen it coming and locked up players before the FA market hit (e.g., Purpura and Oswalt).
Boras saw it coming and advised Drew to opt out of his contract.
***
The information was there, and smart observers noted it and acted accordingly. Others did not recognize and were caught unawares. Bavasi is in the latter group.
The information was there, and smart observers noted it and acted accordingly. Others did not recognize and were caught unawares. Bavasi is in the latter group.
I think this is true. There are various responses to these circumstances, some of which are not blogosphere blessed (but still decently rational)…but I don’t think Bavasi or the front office (particularly the latter) had any of them in mind.
there is knowing that money is going to be spent, and guessing that stupid money was going to be spent. Can you think of anyone who predicted Eaton would get paid what he got paid?
Can you think of anyone who predicted Eaton would get paid what he got paid?
Uh, yeah. The same folks that predicted the M’s would free-fall into oblivion in 2004. Yeah, there were a lot of pessimists that saw the M’s stinkin’ somethin’ smelly back then. But even they didn’t see ’em fallin’ THAT far…
There were pro scouting reports that Clement may not hit for average prior to being drafted. It is a fact and not opinion that the M’s sent hitting coach Jeff Pentland in the middle of the Hawaiian Winter League season along with other executives to assist Jeff.
And it is a fact that Jeff in 116 games and 428 at bats has hit 12 homeruns. I haven’t read anywhere above where anyone called him a bust prospect. However, he has fizzled and hasn’t gotten of to a good start for a first round #3 pick overall. Take a deep breath Matthew.
#169: there is knowing that money is going to be spent, and guessing that stupid money was going to be spent. Can you think of anyone who predicted Eaton would get paid what he got paid?
All you need is to know that there is extra money sloshing around in team pockets that will get spent in the current offseason. Then look back and see what occurred the last time that happened, such as in 2000.
With the money in hand, a number of GMs will act recklessly; it’s predictable.
Does anybody know the terms of the Marcus Giles deal in SD? I’m just curious; even though will bet it’s for less he’s really worth. When healthy, Giles has all the grit of WFB with 10x the offense and good range at 2B.
I’m not suggesting we needed another 2B, but signing Giles would have allowed Bavasi to trade Jose Lopez, Adam Jones, and cash to his man-crush John Schuerholz for Tanyon Sturtze and a breakdancing dancing midget.
Gile took a one-year deal in a park where he will hit like crap so that he could be in SD with his brother.
Settle down, “Calderon.”
In the English language fizzle means to fail after a strong start. I would hardly classify him as a failure after 116 games.
Perhaps you could tell us what you definition of “is” is.
Stupid tags.
#174 – Marcus is a bit of a free-swinger, and PETCO is the worst park he could be going to, but when has 45 doubles, 15 homers, 15 steals, and a .855 OPS ever been considered crap from a second baseman? That’s about what he averaged during the three years prior to last season’s injury-plagued statistical aberration.
‘hit like crap’ was a bit of hyperbole …
dammit. the trade is official.
#179 this trade still smarts after a weekend to stew over it.
#178 – I should have guessed. This damn head cold has turned my mind into hendu.
Regarding post #175, why is blatant racism like that allowed here? Hopefully it was just an oversight.
Don’t worry, “Calderon” and I go way back. Come to think of it, i was being too harsh, this is the most lucid argument he has ever presented.
I can’t comprehend why you would speculate I don’t speak the English language. It’s grossly inappropriate and obviously based on the ethnicity of my last name.