Free agent review: Gil Meche
DMZ · November 11, 2006 at 7:21 pm · Filed Under General baseball
WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
I hope the sucker that decides to give Meche a huge long-term free agent deal because they think they can fix him is in our division, because I would love to watch him get regularly shelled by the team for the next 3-5 years.
Unless they do fix him. That would suck.
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Or worse, we’re the suckers that still believe we can fix him.
Actually, because he sucks, this means that the Mariners will consistently get shut out by him, and fans will moan that he should be a Mariner because he will be pitching incredibly well at Safeco (despite sucking everywhere else)
Meche at his very bestest posted a 4.48 ERA in an extreme pitchers’ park. He has reached the 150 IP mark exactly twice in his career. The only way he’ll be decent is if he develops Curt Schiling’s control.
Eric Milton, say hello to your right-handed brother.
Eric Milton, say hello to your right-handed brother.
Milton’s control is substantially better than Meche’s.
Curt Schilling’s control? Don’t you mean Bob Tewksbury’s?
Or maybe 2005-vintage Carlos Silva (9 BB in 180+ IP? I still can’t believe that actually happened) . . .
Why god, why did we not trade Gil Meche when we had the chance?!
6. Wow, I totally didn’t know that. That’s amazing. I guess you learn something new every day..
Milton’s control is substantially better than Meche’s.
I never said they were twins.
Curt Schilling’s control? Don’t you mean Bob Tewksbury’s?
Schilling walked 28 batters last year… in the American League.
Schilling walked 28 batters last year… in the American League.
Which, by a remarkable coincidence, was the same number of HR’s Schilling allowed, a tie for 10th worst among AL pitchers. Red Sox fans might have wished that he’d shown less control: walked a few more hitters and given up a few less HR’s. (I should have said fewer HR’s but that doesn’t scan well.)
No doubt that I’d rather see Schilling on the mound against the Yankees in the postseason than Gil Meche, though.
LB, if he’d given up more walks, he’d have been more likely to give up more runs per home run.
I hope the sucker that decides to give Meche a huge long-term free agent deal because they think they can fix him is in our division
There is a (albeit slight) one in four chance that comment backfires horribly. 🙂
#11: Maybe.
My point, though, is that a low BB rate is not necessarily the best indicator of a pitcher’s control. I saw a bunch of his games on TV and guarantee you that the vast majority of those 28 HR’s were not allowed on “I hit my spot” pitches, those times where “you just have to tip your cap to the hitter.”
Compare the 2004 and 2006 Schillings (2005 being an injury season, see sock, bloody): 2004 had a higher BB/9’s but lower HR/9’s and a lower ERA (by 0.7 runs). I would claim that the 2004 Schilling had better command, even with the higher BB/9. (He also logged 20IP more in 2004.)
#10: I remember an unscientific study posted on here while back where pitchers were compared based upon their ten best and ten worst games (sorry-I can’t remember who authored it).
Basically if I remember, the *studs* worst games basically correlated to games where they lacked control and the turds (Milton/Franklin etc) had their ten worst games correlate with a distinct ability to throw strikes….
I did a pretty brief search but couldn’t find the thread…could the author (or maybe one of his USSM comrades) post a link to the original thread? I’d love to read that again….
Re #9: yes, I realize Schilling has a fine control record — he’s #82 on the all-time career list for BB/IP, according to baseball-reference.com. Go look up Tewksbury’s (#22, behind only Dan Quisenberry in the last 50+ years), and you should see my point.
Following Mariner tradition, Meche should be getting his World Series ring about this time next year while the M’s will be talking about regrouping in a positive manner behind Mike Hargrove for the 2008 season.
#14: That was a Hardball Times article…
Phranklin.
Or maybe 2005-vintage Carlos Silva (9 BB in 180+ IP? I still can’t believe that actually happened) . . .
Yeah, but look what happened the next year. :-p
#17: thanks!
I’ve mostly seen his named linked to the Yanks and the O’s; of course rumor has it that the Yankees are about to trade Wright to the Orioles, so …
oh, and in a litsting of free agent pitchers, one of the Texas papers did remind readers of Gil’s traditional Arlington performances
I love the Star Ledger’s Dan Graziano:
“GIL MECHE, RHP. One of the big-time sleepers on the free-agent market. Meche has long been considered a top talent who has been limited by injuries and a bad situation in Seattle. This could be a guy who could flourish with a change of scenery. PREDICTION: Yankees.”
St. Louis under the LaRussa/Duncan regime seems to have a rep of “fixing” pitchers.Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan. If you go further back to Oakland, you get Dave Stewart, too.
That being said, I’m not sold that Meche gets fixed.
I hope the sucker that decides to give Meche a huge long-term free agent deal because they think they can fix him is in our division, because I would love to watch him get regularly shelled by the team for the next 3-5 years.
But, but, ESPN Insider Keith Law loves Meche’s potential upside and calls him a “pitching coach’s dream.”
Is it just me, or does nearly everything Keith Law says nowadays sound really, really dumb?
Didn’t he used to have some credibility once upon a time?
Nightmares are dreams too. Just bad ones.
#23: nightmares are technically dreams….
I don’t think it’s just you, Jim.
Seems like Keith Law is reflecting the conventional wisdom that the Ms coaching staff can’t coach. Seems like the Ms haven’t been able to coach since Edgar played his last game.
I believe the Rangers should strongly consider Gil Meche. He is from Louisiana, so he kind of a local boy, and I highly believe that his performances will be remarkable and noteworthy.
Edmonds is off the table.
so is aramis Link
I bet Meche would kick ass in Japan….
How can you fix something that’s not broken?
(Wait for it…)
#24,27– “The No. 1 free agent in Keith Law’s book is off the market. Aramis Ramirez agreed to a five-year deal to stay with the Cubs, who also kept Kerry Wood with a one-year deal.”
I see what you mean, now — Aram was the top free agent?! were there any other gems I missed due to refusing to become an insider?
Basically if I remember, the *studs* worst games basically correlated to games where they lacked control and the turds (Milton/Franklin etc) had their ten worst games correlate with a distinct ability to throw strikes.
“…his stuff is so mediocre and so hittable that if he’s grooving strikes to everyone, he’s in huge trouble.”
St. Louis under the LaRussa/Duncan regime seems to have a rep of “fixing†pitchers.Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan.
Looking at their periphs, Carpenter’s walk rate certainly decreased markedly, Williams had a lower HR rate in St. Louis, and Suppan looks basically like the same pitcher he was from ’01 to ’03. So I’ll give them Carpenter, and maybe-sorta Williams, but not really Suppan.
That said, the one thing that good pitching coaches seem to be able to do is take journeyman/retread types and get them to cut back on walks. Carpenter is an extreme case, but he cut his walks basically in half under Duncan. If someone gets Meche to cut his walks in half, and maintain his other periphs, you’re looking at maybe a 6.5 K/G, 2.0 BB/G, 1.2 HR/G pitcher. That’d be something like a 4.20ish FIP pitcher. IF you can “fix” him.
Like EC, I’m not convinced this can happen to Meche (he probably drops his K rate and increases his HR rate if he drops his BB rate), but I guess that’s what I see as his upside.
Can we call up the O’s? Convince the GM that Mazzone can make gold out of Pineiro and Meche?
My guess is a #5 guy in NY for the Yankees. See if Guidry can make him his project.
{consistancy}