Fun with numbers
At some point, I plan on doing a long post on Adrian Beltre. I don’t have time for it right now, so instead, I’m just going to present a series of numbers. You draw your own conclusions.
Monthly breakdowns:
April: .189/.284/.233, 11% BB, 23% K, .250 BABIP, 21% LD, 44% GB, 31% FB, 4% IF
May: .264/.302/.355, 4% BB, 18% K, .326 BABIP, 19% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 5% IF
June: .324/.387/.611, 8% BB, 18% K, .417 BABIP, 22% LD, 31% GB, 46% FB, 1% IF
July: .264/.329/.444, 10% BB, 19% K, .333 BABIP, 16% LD, 44% GB, 33% FB, 7% IF
Home/Road Splits:
Home: .241/.299/.354, 7% BB, 17% K, 17% LD, 44% GB, 35% FB, 4% IF
Road: .286/.356/.481, 9% BB, 22% K, 23% LD, 35% GB, 39% FB, 4% IF
Last 9 games (vs Toronto, New York, and Boston):
.341/.400/.610, 10% BB, 20% K, .438 BABIP, 19% LD, 33% GB, 36% FB, 11% IF
Since May 1st:
.286/.341/.472, .361 BABIP, 7% BB, 18% K, 20% LD, 38% GB, 38% FB, 4% IF
That’s 290 at-bats, by the way.
2004:
.334/.388/.629, 8% BB, 14% K, .328 BABIP, 18% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 6% IF
XBH/FB, by year:
HR/FB, 2002 – 10%, 2B+3B/FB, 2002 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2002 – 25%
HR/FB, 2003 – 13%, 2B+3B/FB, 2003 – 19%, XBH/FB, 2003 – 32%
HR/FB, 2004 – 23%, 2B+3B/FB, 2004 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2004 – 38%
HR/FB, 2005 – 11%, 2B+3B/FB, 2005 – 21%, XBH/FB, 2005 – 32%
HR/FB, 2006 – 6%, 2B+3B/FB, 2006 – 26%, XBH/FB, 2006 – 32%
Okay, I lied – a little commentary. No matter what you think of Adrian Beltre, there’s absolutely no way that 6% HR/FB number is going to continue. That’s Scott Podsednik/David Eckstein territory. As you can clearly see, his overall rate of extra base hits per fly ball isn’t any different than it was in ’03 or ’05, but the distribution of those hits is skewed heavily towards doubles and triples this year. This isn’t a perfect metric (it’s essentially a proxy since I don’t have play-by-play data), but it makes a pretty obvious point – Beltre is just missing home runs this year. Both of today’s balls are out of any other park in the majors, except maybe Comerica.
I’m not saying Adrian Beltre’s going to hit like this all year – a recurrance of April is still a real possibility. I am saying that people who tell you that he’s hopeless and has no chance of improving don’t know what they’re talking about.
147 – I don’t understand how you have read all this and come to those conclusions.
The solution should be through roster construction, but roster construction alone. Fiddling with the fences is pointless.
Did you read the other thread on this, Evan?
Build me a line-up of left-handed hitters. Just try.
At catcher, your options include Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, A.J. Pierzynski, and Gregg Zaun. That’s your available pool of players to choose from. Good luck!
Or, heck, let’s try third base. There’s Chipper Jones, Chad Tracy, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Corey Koskie, and Aubrey Huff (who really shouldn’t be playing third base).
Shortstop’s even more fun. Carlos Guillen, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes.
Second base: Chase Utley, Jose Vidro, Todd Walker, Orlando Hudson, and Adam Kennedy.
So, you’re now limiting yourself to 4-6 players per position, when the rest of the league gets 30-40.
And you don’t see why this isn’t a problem?
This is the same kind of stuff that Eddie went through. A horrible April and hasn’t been very bad since.
I think there’s a trap in trying to tailor a team too much to your home stadium…it may become a team that can ONLY win at home.
This pretty much sums it up:
1. Safeco is a pitcher’s park mainly because it brutalizes righthanded hitters-that unfortauntely handicaps the M’s ability to build a roster.
2. There is a way to alter the park to make it easier to formulate a roster that has a significant home advantage while still keeping Safeco a pitcher’s park.
3. Safeco is like the weather…everyone is bitching about it but no one is doing anything to fix it… 🙂
Not being totally detached from reality, I had wondered whether dumping Beltre (and Sexton) might be the best of awful choices for the front office, but I’m fully back to the overpaid-but-good-enough support of Adrian, and believe that much of Richie’s trouble has been simple bad luck (his batted-balls numbers strongly suggest this).
The problems are the bottomless bit of Everett, and the Madness of Manager Grover – which has led me to abandon following live games and gamethreads, since it’s like having Lincoln’s characterization of Gen. Burnside in charge: far too infuriating and depressing to bear in person.
156 – I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening.
As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS.
They cannot afford to keep a non-hitting DH. Tha’s just ridiculous.
And if the M’s dump Beltre before they dump Everett, well that may be the last straw for me. I might have to go away and cry until there is a management, perhaps even ownership, change.
If I’m a right-handed powerhitter, there is no way I’m coming to Safeco even for 20% above market value….
Sure, it’s all about the money…. but hey, I’m not stupid. I’ve got to be able to get the next big contract too and by the way, they put 40 hr guys on the front of cheerio boxes not 25 hr guys… and then there is that hall of fame thing to think about….
That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there?
156 – I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening.
As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS.
Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.
But all the OTHER stuff really is maddening. Keeping C-Rex on the team? Stupid. Trotting Mateo out for so many innings? Madness. Overusing Bloomquist? Idiotic. Letting your bench rot? Mind boggling. Not using Perez in key situations? Stupefying.
All that stuff really pushes Beltre and his production waayyyy down the list.
#158: That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there?
Wily Mo would brutalize the Grand Canyon (if it were a ballpark).
Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.
Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.
With great glee and sharpened knives.
But there’d be folks defending that bat….and THAT would be the fun part, when there’s ammunition on both sides…
I have just one word for them DEEEEEEEEache…. 😛
The advantage for Beltre of moving to #2 isn’t just having Ichiro on base. It’s also having Ibanez behind him instead of C-Rex. Or Reed. That might get him some better pitches even with the bases empty.
“Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.”
Heh. Me too. But I probably used bad numbers, anyway. Let me rephrase it to say the M’s can afford to overpay an awesome defense, .775-.825 OPS, third baseman.
Because even with SafeCo, I think Beltre is an around .800 OPS guy. Heck, I think he finishes THIS season on the right half of the .700’s, .770 – .790 or so.
159: Especially when considering, as Dave pointed out, that taking ballpark effect into account, AB’s productivity may well be the best of any 3B in the West this season.
Ideally, if Beltre keeps hitting, I’d like to see him batting 3 and Lopez 2. Lopez doesn’t seem to have responded well to moving to #3. The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.
The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.
That, in itself, may be a reason to keep Beltre at the 2 slot.
Mat, thanks for the runner/non-runner splits on Beltre. I’d wondered on that issue, and the data puts it in perspective. It would seem natural that he’d hit better with guys on, but most of his deep hits and HRs that stand out for me in the last 7 weeks were with the bases empty, which his what the numbers say. Hmmm. A Food for thought. Oh, and Idahoinvader’s perspective on Adrian not hitting with RISP jibes with this too, at least in principle.
Adrian clearly presses. He presses with guys on. He presses trying to hit in Safeco. He presses because he cares. He presses because of the contract. He presses because he’s a flawed hitter and keeps trying to ‘make things happen’ from behind in the count where he finds himself quite often. I think he presses for some other reason’s too, but I don’t have any proof. To me, there’s a good chance that if he were traded to another team, his overall numbers would come up noticeably, though not to the moon, perhaps because he’d take some of that pressure off himself and just react more at the plate. That would tend to make moving him ‘look bad’ in retrospect, but that’s just the way it goes.
I’m totally NOT in favor of ‘dumping’ Beltre, far less moving him to take back a bad contract. He does some things well, is an outstanding defender, is a great teammate, and he has hit his way out of a catastrophic slump to disappointing but still useful numbers. If and when he’s dealt, it should be in a thoughtful deal which helps the team. I certainly think that this could be accomplished.