Monday, March 10, 2014
Yet another bases per out model
?One of the frustrating parts of what we do is that seemingly someone will reinvent the wheel. None is more popular than the "bases per opportunity" metric, be it bases per PA or bases per out. Patriot was even more frustrated than I was, as he wrote an article about the history of the invention(s). It is so important, that right at the top of every page of this blog is a link of required reading, that leads to Patriot's article.
Here's another. This time, it's a FIP-based metric. So, it's a bases per out metric, but ignores all batted ball in play. In other words, it's a K/BB ratio model, but flipped to BB/K, and then adding in 4*HR into the numerator. To the extent that you find K/BB ratios useful, you will find this metric also useful.
But, as we know, K minus BB is a better metric than K divided by BB. If you try to correlate to actual runs, it's the differential that does a better job, not the ratio. So, if K minus BB is more useful than K/BB, and if you want to introduce HR, you could simply do K - BB - 4*HR. Which looks suspiciously like FIP.
And FIP works best as (3*BB+13*HR) minus (2*SO), rather than turning that minus to divided.
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