Thursday, September 01, 2022
WAR: quality X quantity
In the 1970s, Tom Seaver led pitchers in WAR on Fangraphs with 64.
In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw led with 59. That's just 5 less than Seaver.
Blyleven and Perry were next at 62 and 58 each in the 1970s. Scherzer and Verlander had 54 each in the 2010s. That's 6 less for pitchers of today than the heavily worked pitchers of yesteryear.
Those numbers are about 10% less in the 2010s. But the top 3 pitchers of today threw 24% fewer innings. That's a 14% differential between WAR and IP.
The next 7 pitchers in the 1970s averaged 47 WAR, while in the 2010s averaged 38. Those numbers are 20% less in the 2010s, even though the pitchers of 2010s threw 34% fewer innings. That's a 14% differential.
Are we giving out too many WAR to top pitchers today (and/or too few to pitchers of the 1970s)?
Let's see what we can learn from Won-Loss records, and we'll focus on the top 10 pitchers in WAR in both eras.
The top 10 in WAR averages these Won-Loss records:
135-73 2010s
169-124 1970s
So, the top SP of the 1970s got 34 more wins... but also 51 more losses. That's a win% of 34/85 or .400. And .400 is slightly above the replacement level.
These top 10 pitchers of the 2010s had 29% fewer decisions, and they had 30% fewer innings. But that doesn't matter. Because what they ended up shedding was (mostly) replacement-level performances.
And in WAR, we give credit, for both quality AND quantity, for the performances above replacement-level.
And that's why Clayton Kershaw can closely match Tom Seaver, being only 5 WAR short, even though he threw 656 fewer innings.
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