Friday, October 11, 2019
WAR environments: Lynn v Ryu
?Some 12 years ago or so, we developed the WAR framework on the old Book Blog. It's nothing too original, working off what Pete Palmer and Bill James and Mitchel Lichtman had done in some form or other. What I did was give the framework some rules and logical underpinnings, with some key assists by the Straight Arrow readers. The framework could then be implemented under those guidelines. Because those guidelines were so clear and not onerous, it was just a matter of time for someone to implement their version of WAR. (You'd think I would have done it, but nope. I was happy just doing it on an ad-hoc basis. I wanted to see its application to the world of free agents.)
Long-time peer Rally Monkey was the first to do so, and he implemented it with a fantastic presentation. That was soon followed by Fangraphs doing their own flavor, also with an excellent presentation. Baseball Reference used the Rally implementation, and added even more transparency. Basically, the most transparency that you can imagine, while giving the results in as digestible form as it does.
And because Baseball Reference is so clear in its presentation, we can talk about Lance Lynn and Ryu. Ryu has allowed one fewer run per 9IP than Lynn, but Lynn has a 2.5 WAR lead. This is an enormous flip. You'd think there must be something wrong. Well, not according to the assumptions that Reference has clearly laid out. The key to understand ANY baseball stat is:
what would an average player do in THOSE conditions?
And the conditions that differentiate Lynn and Ryu are the three conditions that we all think about:
- Fielding Support
- Park Impact
- Opposing Hitting Talent
We don't know how the Dodgers fielders helped Ryu specifically. We have several estimates as to how they helped the whole team. Fangraphs has the data for UZR and DRS. If you relied on the UZR estimate, the Dodgers are an average fielding team. If you relied on the DRS estimate, the Dodgers are the 2nd greatest fielding team since 2002 (behind last year's DBacks and ahead of this year's DBacks). Baseball Reference relies on one fielding system, and that fielding system, since 2002, is DRS. As a result, you start with a league average run environment, and remove 0.5 runs per 9IP to that, and that's our starting point for Ryu's (and basically all Dodgers pitchers) fielding-adjusted run environment. So whether Ryu benefited from the Dodgers fielding support or not, it's presumed he earned it (about as much) as his pitching mates. Similarly, the Rangers are presumed to have terrible fielders. And so, Lynn's adjusted run environment is to add 0.3 runs per 9IP. So right there, we can explain a 0.8 run gap per 9IP.
The Rangers play in a presumed huge hitter's park, and the Dodgers play in a presumed pitcher's park. That gap is going to add another 0.7 or so runs to Lynn v Ryu.
Finally, Lynn faced tougher hitters than Ryu, which is another 0.5 run gap.
Add it all up, and you have a 2 run gap in conditions, per 9 IP. You can see it right here (click image to embiggen)
?
So now, we take Lynn's actual runs allowed per 9 IP (3.84) and compare it to his presumed conditions (6.25 R/9IP), and we end up with Lynn saving 2.41 runs per 9 IP compared to an average pitcher would have done given Lynn's presumed conditions. And over 208.1 IP, that's 56 Runs Above Average. (It shows 54, presumably because of rounding.)
Similarly, Ryu's conditions is that an average pitcher would have allowed 4.22 runs compared to his actual 2.61, or saving 1.61 runs per 9 IP, which over 182.2 IP is 33 Runs Above Average.
There is a runs-per-win conversion where Lynn's 54 runs counts as 5.7 wins, and Ryu's 33 runs counts as 3.6 wins.
The final step is to compare the average pitcher to the replacement level, and add that to each pitcher. So, Lynn's 5.7 WAA becomes 7.6 WAR (so gaining 1.9 wins), and Ryu's 3.6 WAA becomes 5.1 WAR (gaining 1.5 wins). Those are, basically, proportional to their innings pitched (plus I think a league adjustment?).
Anyway, and that's how you go from one guy being 22 runs ahead of the other (Ryu over Lynn) or the equivalent of 2.2 wins, to the tables being turned, and the other guy (Lynn) being 2.5 wins ahead (of Ryu).
That's a 4.7 win turnaround, based strictly on the estimated run environment for each pitcher.
Whether you accept all this or not, that's up to you. But all the data is there for you to make an informed choice.
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