Thursday, November 17, 2022
W/L using IP and ER
Someone asked how to do this. It's a pretty straightforward process. Let me assume a league ERA of 4.00. You have a pitcher that pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 ER.
A 4.00 ERA in 6 innings is 4/9 * 6 = 2.67 ER as league average. So 2 ER is 0.67 fewer than league average. While we know the conversion is close to 10:1 in terms of runs to wins, for ER, it's closer to 9:1. So, 0.67 ER is 0.074 wins.
Now, we need decisions. 9 innings is one decision. So 6 innings is 0.67 decisions, or 0.333 W and 0.333 L. Since we have +.074 wins, then our expected Wins is .333 + .074 and expected Loss is .333 - .074. And so, .41 wins and .26 losses (and naturally 0.33 no decisions).
All that make sense?
I haven't tested this, but it's going to be pretty darn close, and might just need some tweaks here and there.
You'd obviously want to cap things at 0 and 1, so this is a good way to make sure a blowout game doesn't have an undue effect. A 9-inning 0 ER is going to come in at 0.944 W. But, what you can do. Not trying to be perfect here, just trying to get you most of the way there. And in any case, 0 ER in 9 innings could still be a loss because of unearned runs. Who knows, maybe it should be 0.944. That's where the #AspiringSaberist comes in.
Have fun!
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