Monday, June 23, 2014
USA has 75% chance to advance
lThat's according to 538. Let's see if we can figure this out. Let's say they have a 20% chance of winning against Germany, 30% losing and 50% tie. Win or tie and they advance automatically. That's 70%. If they lose, they advance as long as (a) they lose by 1 and (b) Ghana wins by at most 1 or Ghana loses. Losing by 1 against Germany I'll guess is 20% (of that 30%). Ghana winning by at most 1 or tieing or losing is probably 80%. So .20 x .80 is .16, added to the .70 and that's 86%.
Seems I'm a bit bullish here with my uneducated guesses. Can someone show me what the overseas books are showing?
Gambletron 2000's in-game prob.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 151 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers