Sunday, April 09, 2023
Speed and Pickoffs in 2023
We can create a simple metric that is SB minus 2 times CS. The breakeven point is somewhere above there. It's closer to 3 to 1 in some occasions. But if you use the stolen base in small ball situations, it is closer to 70%. So, a 2:1 is a simple enough point to show.
And for SB I will include balks, while for CS I will include pickoffs.
For players with 30+ feet/sec of seasonal Sprint Speed, and no prior pickoff attempts, they have 6 SB and 1 CS, on 134 pitches. That's a net of +4 SB on 134 pitches, or +2.6 per 100 pitches.
And this follows the pattern you'd expect. For players at 29-29.99 ft/s, they are a net +0.8 SB per 100. At 28-28.99, they are +0.5 per 100. Below 28, and they are a net negative.
That was with no prior pickoff attempts. Once a pickoff attempt happens, things change radically. Players at 26-26.99 ft/s jump up to +0.7 net SB per 100. This puts them squarely at the equivalent of 29 ft/sec with no prior pickoff attempts. In other words, it's like adding 2.5 ft/s of speed, simply by having a prior pickoff attempt.
And it gets worse. Players at a speed of 27-28.99 ft/s have a net SB of +2.9 per 100 pitches (with 1 prior pickoff attempt). That is similar to the speedsters of 30+ ft/sec with no pickoff attempts. Again, it's like adding 2 or 2.5 ft/s of speed. That's what the prior pickoff attempt does.
The solution? Do not attempt a pickoff on a runner. Ever. Of course, once word gets out that a pitcher is not going to pickoff a runner, ever, the runners will take longer leads. So, there's going to be a heavy amount of game theory going on, as the season progresses.
This is alot like the 3-0 count. Once you learn that a batter will NEVER swing at a 3-0 count, the pitcher will groove more in. Of course, a batter will only resist for so long before he swings at 3-0. And so, there's a balance that's going to be achieved. Same thing applies with the running game.
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