Friday, September 20, 2013
Shots begets shots
Tyler is performing an interesting exercise, but as one of the commenters noted, I think the result may be biased.
I had a similar thought: if you have the NY Eve Russians v Canadiens on the ice, they wouldn't need that second shot, because the first shot would have produced a goal. So, they are "bad" at creating multiple shots, only because they made sure that they got a good first shot off.
So, to improve what Tyler is doing, maybe count each goal as "10" additional shot equivalents, or something like that. That is, if taking a shot leads to an additional shot and that shot will go in 10% of the time, then taking a shot that results in a goal would count as 10 additional shots.?
(And really, additional shots will likely go in more often than 10%, since some of those are immediate rebounds. So, just replace 10% with whatever we see empirically, and then change "10" to the appropriate value.)
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 151 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers