Friday, April 18, 2014
Super Two Monkey Wrench
R.J. asks for alternatives to the Super Two situation. The issue is based on the idea that those 22% of players with the most service time in the 2.000 to 2.171 class get arbitration rights, which is very valuable. We never know what the cutoff is until after the fact. RJ suggests that the players give up Super Two altogether, but then, they have to get something back for it.
My suggestion is to follow the NHL model. In the NHL, you don't count service days, but service years. And you get a service year once you play more than ten games in a season. So, that means playing more than 12% of the schedule. The MLB equivalent would be about 21 days on the roster. That might cause havoc with the September callups, so you can make it 31 days (or whatever so that being called up with the expanded roster won't give the player enough days to count as a full year).
The key point you are trying to get is the following: the number of players who qualify for arbitration should remain fairly constant before the change and after the change. If you have that, then you know that you are in balance. I don't know if my suggestion above gives us that, so some aspiring saberist can look into it.
And maybe instead of 31 days, maybe it's 35 days or 28 days or whatever that gives us that balance.
(You might also put in a safety net to also count service days for those perennial minor-league callups. If say a player is always getting say 25 day callups each year, and so, after 7 years?, he never gets a year of service, even though he has 175 service days. So at least keep counting that in these odd cases.)
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