Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Statcast Lab: Barrel Zone
We have been using "Barrels" in the Statcast era based on an inference model: if your launch angle and speed reached a certain range, it leads to high production, and so, we would infer that your swing speed and contact point in the sweet spot was optimal. For the purposes of the data we had, that worked out great.
Well, now we are starting to have access to more data. And instead of inferring if a ball has been barreled, we can more directly measure it.
In the chart below (click to embiggen), we show the wOBA at various combination of swing speeds and impact points on the bat. The Green Box has an average wOBA of .624, and that refers to a sweetspot at 5-8 inches from the head of the bat, with a swing speed of 80+ mph. I don't know what to call this other than "barreled" (based on swing data), but that would come into conflict with our other definition of Barrel (based on launch data).
In the orange box, we see the impact point on the part of the bat just outside the sweetspot (4 to 4.99 inches and 8 to 8.99 inches). Just as interesting is the next line, 70 to 79.99 mph, where the actual sweetspot (5-8 inches) gives results not that much different from one inch outside the sweetspot.
In order to have major league success, you need to swing at least 70mph and be able to make contact 4 to 9 inches from the head of the bat. If you can't make contact there at that speed, you won't be able to survive in the majors.
The data we currently have is very limited, so things will change. That said, directionally, all the results conform to expectations. And what we are now learning is the magnitude of the effects. So all this is preliminary, but very promising.
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