Friday, May 19, 2023
Statcast: HR in X Parks
We have recently updated the process for the HR in X Parks on Savant. We have both a Standard version and an Adjusted version.
Previously, both were based on the distance landing with a presumed 45 degree descent angle (which implies a 30 degree launch angle). This made the math pretty easy, since distance to fence plus fence height is what the batted ball needs to be pass. And for the most part, since HR are hit around that launch angle, the math worked well enough.
Now, we use the actual trajectory of the batted ball, comparing the position of the ball in 3D, every 1 msec, to the fence it is trying to clear. So, alot more intensive in the calculation and a little more precise. We'll check later to do see who wins and loses the most based on the new method compared to the old method.
As for Standard v Adjusted: the Standard method assumes the overlay method, and only looks at the actual fence configuration. This doesn't work for Coors especially, as Coors has the deepest fence in baseball. The Standard method would treat Coors as the least HR friendly park, rather than the most. Obviously, that is nonsensical and is the complete opposite of reality. That's where the Adjusted method comes in, using the actual park impact by distance. Coors for example adds about 20 feet to long flyballs, and so, that's what is needed.
If you only use one method, use the Adjusted method. If you want to use two methods, use the Adjusted method. If you really understand what you are doing, use the Adjusted method. Finally, if all else fails, then you can use the Standard method, but only in conjunction with the Adjusted method, and never in isolation. Never, ever in isolation. Ever.
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