Friday, February 01, 2013
Bill James made a proposal on his site about how to change the rotation setup. Instead of having gone from a 4-man to 5-man, Bill proposed going the other way, down to a 3-man rotation. Don goes through Bill's comment about PAP in a fair way.
Anyway, Bill proposed a three-man rotation of 54 starts each, but a ceiling on pitches, much like we saw with the Rockies for three weeks.
When it comes down to it, you can probably make as good a case for a three-man as you can for a 4-man, 5-man, and 6-man rotation. Or even a mix, so that some guys start every three days and others start every five days, and others every seven days.? Naturally, the guys starting every three days are going to get pulled far earlier than the other pitchers.
Since every pitcher is different, it's obvious that every pitcher needs to be treated differently.
What will stop any change however is the Won/Loss rule. You can only get a win as a starting pitcher if you pitch at least five innings, but you can get a loss any time. Which is of course a silly rule. So, if you have a starting pitcher scheduled to go for say 60-80 pitches, there's really no reason to make him start the game. He can just as easily come in relief in the third inning, after the first starting pitcher gets pulled for a pinch hitter.
Anyway, lots of potential crazy setups.
A nice history of the Alou brothers.?
When Felipe was managing the Expos, he'd be #1, maybe #2 (Moises Alou might beat him out) in getting the loudest ovations from the fans. He was the face of the team. He was fiercely loyal to Montreal, even turning down a deal with the Dodgers to stay in Montreal. He married a woman from Quebec, and I think he still lives there.
And since I'm reminiscing, hats off to Pedro Martinez, for giving the fans of Montreal a shout-out while champagne was being poured over his head after he won the World Series. Pedro also returned to Montreal the year after he was traded to Boston, to give a special gift to Felipe.
I love these guys who have a special place in their heart for Montreal.
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Comments
• 2013/02/01
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History
Thursday, January 31, 2013
?A long research piece, which I might get to read at the office tomorrow.
The data shows that there is an overall "opposite effect": "bad" calls
help the parties they were called against; for example, a ball called a
strike will- on average- help the batter get on base at a higher rate
than an at-bat in which the correct call was made, and a strike called a
ball will- on average- lessen the likelihood that a batter reaches
base, favoring the pitcher. This supports previous research that umpires
may utilize "make-up" calls, whether consciously or unconsciously. Data
for this "opposite effect" wanes, or reverses, as the count grows long,
as umpires have less chance to provide a "make-up" call.
?Taking Jeff's point to its logical conclusion, I must say yes.
Every episode of iCarly starts with the letter i. Not I, but i, as in lower-case i. And it's not the stand-alone word I (or i), but the lower-case i attached to the next word. For example: iSpy a Mean Teacher. It's cute, or it's silly. But, really, who cares.
Well, if you go to Jeff's article, you will see Star Trek fans debating the letter I/i. And Jeff suggests the way we talk about players is really no different.
iAgree with Jeff.
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Comments
• 2013/02/05
•
Blogging
Good stuff here. This is one of those things I like to do as well, especially if trying to see if talent is increasing or decreasing.
?
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
?Jeff took the slowest working pitcher (Papelbon at 31 seconds between pitches) and the slowest working hitter (Pena at 28 seconds) and wondered what happened when they actually faced each other.
There's two schools of thought here: the pitcher controls the pace, and if Papelbon takes 31 seconds, then there's nothing a slow or fast batter is going to do. It'll take 31 seconds.
The other is that both have an impact. If let's say the average pace is 22 seconds (guessing), then Papelbon is +9 and Pena is +6, and so the two facing each other would give us +15. So, we'd expect 22+15 = 37 seconds.
And it seems the second method works best.
Just fantastic. This site is my goto site for market activity analysis. And Matthew shows exactly why. He went through the last Fed statement, and the current Fed statement, and looks like he just put it in Word with Tracking, to highlight what was added and what was removed. It's brilliant in its simplicity and clarity.
Indeed, you can practically see the committee using their last statement as the basis, and then going through each line, and asking "so, should we be a bit more bullish or bearish here?", and making slight modifications as they agree.?
John Sickels gives us his list.
It's important to note that this is just players in the minor leagues. As he notes, when Mike Trout gets called up, the ranking for the Angels takes a beating. And if you trade a prospect for even a young MLB player, you drop down as well.?
Adam turns his view over to hockey.
One thing I've been meaning to do, but maybe Adam will be inspired to do it: how many years do players wait? The BBWAA is notorious for not having "1st timers". But, the NHL voters don't see it that way at all. There was one year where they had five guys that would have gone in the first time, but they have a strict max-4 limit, so one guy (Larionov) had to wait a year.
The Hockey Hall of Fame elects about 25 players every 10 years, which makes it a medium hall, and right around the size that the average Straight Arrow reader expects from baseball.
So, that's what I like about the hockey process:
1. players have a 3-year waitlist, not 5 years (and waive the 3-year rule under exceptional circumstances)
2. deserving players are elected extremely quickly
3. they don't get a year without electing SOMEONE?
4. had active Hall of Famers (unretired Gordie Howe, Mario, Guy Lafleur)
5. you never, and I mean never, have the annual drone of the Jack Morris type of candidate... if a guy like that is on the horizon (Clark Gillies?), he's quietly elected, there may be some consternation, and then it's over and done with... Hall of Fame is really about celebration of players elected, and not hand-wringing about players ignored (Housley, Gilmour, etc)
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Comments
• 2013/01/31
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Hockey
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
?Do you think it's crazy that CVS charges 7.99$ for two passport-sized headshots, when they charge 19 cents online and 29 cents at the kiosk for a single 4x6 standard picture? Yeah, me too.
Well, here's http://www.epassportphoto.com/ . While they offer you a paid service (i.e., whatever CVS would otherwise charge you for passport photos), you can get their free service by clicking appropriately. And what do you end up with? A perfectly sized passport photo for whatever country you want, and prepared in a 4x6 format. Just open up a CVSphoto.com account, upload the picture, and, voila, pick up the picture at the store for 19 cents. (CVS gives you a service charge if you spend less than 5 dollars, so this is all you do, then just bring your flash drive to their Kodak kiosk and pay 29 cents.)
There may have been a time where a pro photog taking your passport pic for 12.99$ made sense. I don't see that any longer. The problem is that we only get our passport done every five years, so, it takes a long time to change our habit.
If you guys have other of these cool services that basically reduces the cost of something by 95%, I'd love to hear about those too.
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Comments
• 2013/01/29
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Tech_Web
?Love seeing how fans "get" run expectancy.
?Cool story from Montreal. If you can't read through the whole thing, just read the first couple of paragraphs, and then the last one.
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Comments
• 2013/01/30
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Tech_Web
The New York metro area has three hockey teams. The Toronto metro area has one, even though in terms of potential hockey fans, it dwarfs the NY area. Toronto also happens to be the most valuable franchise in the NHL.
But this is the best part: they are co-owned by communication rivals Rogers and Bell. This is like Cablevision and Verizon owning the Rangers. From my cheap seats, it seems to me that a split into two teams is a foregone conclusion, and the issue is about how to go about the divorce. How to value the name, who keeps the players (or split them), who gets the old arena, and who gets a new one in the outskirts.? All of that can be priced. Indeed, you can do the classic "I cut, you pick" to guarantee fairness.
I'd love to hear from my Toronto paisans and tell me what in the world am I missing? Could the Toronto hockey market actually be worth more as one, than as two? And could the current owners really bank on being able to block a second team from coming in, rather than pre-empting the effort with an amicable split into two teams that they'd each own?
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Comments
• 2013/01/31
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Hockey
Bojan takes about a page (or three) out of The Book?, and gives it an in-depth treatment with current data. I love it when the new wave of researchers roll up their sleeves, as this is really the best way to move forward.
?Brian takes a look at how EPA (expected points added, which is RE24 for baseball) and WPA correlate, as well as Clutch score.
In his case, he didn't calculate clutch score the way I do, by using leverage index. Which reminds me: has Brian done a Leverage Index for football? I should probably talk to him about that.
Monday, January 28, 2013
?Mike correlates the rate of HR per flyball to the average distance per flyball. Relationship is fairly strong.
?The Cubs are looking for a Director of Research & Development in their Baseball Operations. If you apply, make sure to say you "heard it from Tango". Since we're on the topic, I am now providing my consulting services exclusively to the Cubs.
Job description follows:
Read More
This guy has been speaking with common sense and humility since he was at least sixteen years old (if you can find that interview, I think you'll be impressed by the way he spoke). And he still has a great perspective:
"One of the things I'm most proud of is that as a family we're able to spend June, July and August together on a lake house. It's something my wife and I always dreamed about," Gretzky said. "Fortunately, we found a tremendous place in Idaho and we love it. One of the reasons I don't think about going back to work now is I don't want to give up my June, July and August. From my point of view right now, selfishly, I don't want to give up that time, so that's how I keep coming back to the time is not right for me to be in the game. It's as simple as that."
However, Gretzky admits it's hard to fill the void of competition in his life.
"I miss winning," Gretzky said. "What I'm doing now, whether it be my wine company or my restaurant, you plug along every day and you try to create ideas to better your brand or your company. But ultimately, there are no peaks and valleys. Being a professional athlete, it's all about peaks and valleys. If you win it's everything, and if you lose it's gut-wrenching. You're paid to play, but you're paid to win."
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Comments
• 2013/01/28
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Hockey
A blogger who's fun to read, talks about a player with an interesting background.?
There are two little facets to baseball that I love more than just about anything else: pitchers-as-batters, and nonpitchers-as-pitchers. I love it because it puts players completely out of their element, providing basically a (mostly) unbiased view as to what's possible with just the most minimal of talent.?
And Jeff takes a look. And no surprise that maybe umpires are nice to them.
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