Monday, February 19, 2018
Real-life Replacement Level Players
?Some people think of replacement-level as some theoretical line, some nebulous concept. In this fantastic recap to the History of WAR, Brandon quotes Bill James from 35 years ago:
The replacement level is a very real, very tangible place for a baseball team or a baseball player; drop under it and they release you. But nothing happens to you if you're a little better than average or a litter worse than average; the difference between .490 and .510 is no different than the difference between .520 and .540, or any other similar distance.
This group of players can be represented by MLB players who sign minor league free agent contracts. These are players who are good enough to ride the bench, but lose some talent, or run into enough bad luck that you drop below "the line", and suddenly, you are offered a minor league deal, and you have to fight to make it onto the team. ESPN provides a 10 year list of free agents who signed minor league deals. All that is needed is for an aspiring saberist to go through that list and show us how good those guys are. Bobby has done just that. He was nice enough to ask for my occasional input, but all the hard work was his.
There is some evidence that the replacement level, as represented by this group of players is a bit too low. However, note that these guys who sign these deals are NOT signing for the MLB league minimum, but rather some 0.5MM$ to 1.00MM$ ABOVE the minimum. From that perspective, it's very possible that a .300 win% is indeed the right replacement level.
It's fantastic work, and you should give it a read.
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