Thursday, January 22, 2015
Ratios v Differentials
This fellow gives us a clean formula to estimate the success rate of a FG kick by distance. He then had two choices as to how to present it, either as an index or as a differential. He went with index. This was not a good choice.
Why is that? Because if a kicker attempts alot of 95% field goals, and he gets 100%, his "score" for that is going to be 1.05. If overall across all his attempts he's 1.15, then his perfect score here (100% v 95%) actuall?y brings down his overall average.
The better way would have been as a differential, either relative to average, or relative to some lower baseline.
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